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Author: TaylorRoberts
Nov 17, 2017 12:57 PM
Best bets in the Rugby League World Cup final series revealed
We’re now at the business end of the Rugby League World Cup as we enter the knockout stage of the competition. The 'Mickey Mouse' games have come and gone, and the cricket scoreboards have been stacked away, as the big boys now start to get serious.
If you followed the best value bets highlighted in our earlier article Rugby League World Cup: your punting guide, you are sitting pretty. Five of the twelve suggested bets have come up trumps, while three are looking very likely.
The bookies got a stack of markets wrong before a ball was kicked in the tournament, and as we move into the next phase of competition, there's still plenty of value on offer.
We’ve previewed the four quarter finals games this weekend and identified the best value bets from each match.
AUSTRALIA 
vs SAMOA 
Friday 8pm, Darwin Stadium
Mal Meninga named his strongest line-up yet. With Jake Trbojevic the only omission from the side which took on England in the first round, ruled out of the tournament through an injury he sustained in the opener.
After a tough win against the Poms, Australia cruised through the group stages with wins against France and Lebanon.
Samoa failed to win a single game in their pool and are now quarter finalists thanks to a favourable point differential. They’ve recalled captain Frank Pritchard and Ben Roberts who were both rested for their final game against Scotland.
Best value bet: Australia to cover the 31.5 point line.
Reasoning:
- Samoa only managed to score 40 points in their three group games and 14 of them came against a woeful Scotland side.
- The Samoa defence was flimsy, conceding an average of 28 points per game.
- Australia averaged 34.6 points in each of their three pool games whilst conceding only 3.3 points per game.
- Expect the big Samoan forward pack to tire in the second half under the sweltering Darwin conditions, forecasted to reach 34 degrees.
- With the Kangaroos now facing knockout football, there is no doubt they will be lifting their game up a notch after going through the motions against France and Lebanon.
TONGA 
vs LEBANON 
Saturday 3pm, Christchurch Stadium
Tonga have been a powerhouse in the tournament and are realising the potential of their talented roster. The tier-two nation topped the toughest pool of the World Cup by knocking off big brother New Zealand, with many pundits claiming they have the goods to challenge the Kangaroos.
Leading try scorer Michael Jennings returns to the side after missing the clash against the kiwis with a hamstring injury.
Lebanon have shown plenty of fight throughout the pool stage, spurred on by an upset win over France in their opening fixture. The Cedars’ gritty attitude has taken a physical toll on the squad however, finishing last weekend’s game against Australia with only 13 fit players.
Skipper Robbie Farah has been in a moon boot all week but will play, whilst their NRL stars Mitchell Moses and Michael Lichaa are also tipped to play after overcoming niggly injuries.
Best value bet: Tonga to cover the 27.5 point line.
Reasoning:
- Tonga scored on average 36.7 points per pool game whilst conceding 14.7 per game, which is impressive considering the strength of their opposition.
- Lebanon only scored 13 points on average and conceded 27 points per pool game.
- Michael Jennings is a big inclusion for the Tongans as the tournament’s second leading try scorer with five tries.
- The Tongan side have made New Zealand their adopted home this Word Cup having played two of their pool matches across the ditch, whilst a bruised and battered Lebanon will be playing in New Zealand for the first time.
ENGLAND 
vs PAPAU NEW GUINEA 
Saturday 5pm, Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Sam Burgess has been named to start for the English team after missing the past two games with a knee injury.
The Wayne Bennett coached Poms now find themselves with a strong chance to make it to the Final, after missing Australia and New Zealand in the semi-final play-offs.
The English have demonstrated that they can score, racking up 27 points per game in their past four test matches.
Their opening game loss to the Kangaroos will harden them and instill some belief about where they need to be to become World Cup champions.
The Kumals will be riding high after remaining undefeated in the pool stage. The PNG side have impressed fans with their expansive style of footy having scored 128 points and only conceding 12 in tournament. Co-captain and 2017 Queensland Cup player of the year, Ase Boas, has overcome injury to return to the side, to link up with his brother in the halves.
Best value bet: England to cover the 16.5 point line.
Reasoning:
- The Kumuls came up against soft competition in the pool stages, with Ireland, Wales and the USA missing 39, 55 and 59 tackles in each of their games respectively.
- PNG played all their pool games on home turf and now travel to Melbourne where the English suffered a tough loss to Australia in their first game.
- England score an average of 32 points when Sam Burgess in the side.
FIJI 
vs NEW ZEALAND 
Saturday 8pm, Wellington Stadium
The Kiwis will be looking to pick themselves up off the canvas following a demoralising defeat to Tonga last week, after blowing a 16-2 lead at half-time.
Although suspect in defence, the Kiwis have made light work of scoring tries, averaging 44.6 points in each group game.
Coach David Kidwell has dropped hooker Thomas Leulua and replaced him with Knights rake Danny Levi, whilst Cowboys five-eight Te Maire Martin will replace Kodi Nikorima who drops back to the bench.
The Fijians have been scoring for fun throughout the group stage, averaging 56 points in each of their three games. Of the 42 tries scored by the Bati, 12 have come through their dangerous right edge via centre Taane Milne and Storm flyer Suliasi Vinivalu, who bagged nine tries, the highest in the tourament.
Best value bet: Over 45.5 points to be scored in the game.
Reasoning:
- Both sides are littered with attacking weapons and are the two highest scoring teams in the competition.
- Although Fiji are yet to come up against tough opposition, it is unlikely that a backline containing Suliasi Vinivalu, Akuila Uate and Jarryd Hayne will be kept to a low score line.
- The two sides last met in 2014 when the Kiwis won 32-20 supporting our prediction that the points will flow in Wellington.
