Author: Jared Deguara
Nov 10, 2017 05:19 AM
Betting with your heart in Saturday's World Cup qualfier?
Check the stats before you do.
The Socceroos’ rocky path to the 2018 World Cup will reach its ultimate conclusion over the coming seven days when they take on Honduras over a two-legged playoff.
It’s been a long and arduous journey for the Aussies having begun their qualification campaign back in June 2015. Our boys now face the tortuous task of travelling to another continent to take on a side which has qualified for the past two World Cups.
How did the Aussies find themselves playing Honduras?
The South American nation finished fourth in their qualifying Group, one spot away from automatic qualification. That result entitles them to a second chance, playing-off against the third-place getters in the Asian conference.
Despite losing only one match in 10 games, the Socceroos failed to finish in the top two in their Asian Qualifying Group, missing automatic qualification. The final hope for the Asia Cup title holders was the hard road. After beating Syria in a playoff to secure third place in the Asia group, they have now earned the right to take on the Hondurans.
The first leg will be played on Saturday morning (Australian time) in San Pedro Sula, before the return leg on Wednesday night in Sydney.
There is no doubt the Hondurans will use typical South American tactics that Aussie supporters have come to expect when playing on their home soil - a hostile reception, dodgy playing surfaces and rock bands playing outside the team hotel in the early hours before the game.
Not since Australia’s famous victory against Uruguay in 2005 have the Socceroos played such a highly anticipated two-game shoot-out. Fans across the country are bracing themselves for a tense week with the dream of post-match celebrations similar to those back in 2005, almost 12 years ago to the day.
Before you let your green and gold heart do the punting for Saturday's game, read the key facts and statistics that our analysts have found.
Key Players
Australia
Aaron Mooy - is experiencing an incredible run of success since leaving Australian shores to play for Huddersfield in the England Championship, where he has scored against the likes of EPL champions Manchester United. He will be key to setting-up Australia's attacking moves, and is most dangerous at set-pieces.
Tom Rogic - a key figure in Celtic's engine room, there is no denying his class on the world stage. His work rate in the middle of the field will be critical to provide Mooy the freedom he needs to play a more attacking role.
Honduras
Romell Quioto - the Houston Dynamo striker has been a shining light for Honduras throughout their qualifying campaign, scoring six goals, including the winning goal in their decisive final game against Mexico. The Aussie defenders will have their work cut out trying to contain him.
Alberth Ellis - a teammate of Quioto in the US Major League Soccer. The attacking midfielder scored four goals in the qualifiers, and has a wealth of experience notching up 26 caps for his country.
His combination with Quioto will be key to the Honduran attack, and the Socceroos will be hoping that they won't have to witness his famous ‘panther prowl’ goal celebration.
Goals Scored vs Conceded
Much criticism has been mounted against the Socceroos' leaky defence throughout their qualification campaign and here's why.
The Aussies conceded 1.4 goals on average per game, letting in more goals at home than away.
The Honduran's defence has also been frail, conceding 1.6 goals on average when away. The main contributor to their poor defensive record as visitors was a 6-0 thumping to the USA, who they eventually finished above in their qualifying Group.
The key statistic in the Aussies' favour is their goal scoring ability. The Aussies scored 1.4 goals on average per game in this World Cup qualification series compared to Honduras who only managed 1 goal per game.
| AUS |
Scored |
Conceded |
| Home |
1.8 |
1.5 |
| Away |
1.1 |
1.3 |
| Total |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| HON |
Scored |
Conceded |
| Home |
1.1 |
1.0 |
| Away |
0.9 |
1.6 |
| Total |
1.0 |
1.3 |
Squad Make Up
Twenty of the Honduran's 23 man squad are based in the Americas with six members playing for the same team in the local Honduras league. This is in stark contrast to the Australian side with the majority plying their trade across Europe.
The good news for the Aussie boys is that temperatures aren't too high in Honduras at present, currently sitting at around 26 degrees celsius. The challenge will come with the humidity, which is currently 86%, a level that the European based players will be unaccustomed to.
| |
AUS |
HON |
| Local |
3 |
9 |
| Europe |
15 |
3 |
| Asia |
5 |
0 |
| Americas |
0 |
11 |
Our Verdict on the first-leg
The Aussies will be without at least two of their attacking weapons for the first leg on Saturday. Matthew Leckie is suspended, Robbie Kruse injured and goal scoring machine Tim Cahill is in serious doubt with an ankle injury.
With away goals counting for two, the Aussies will look to snatch a goal during the game, while focussing hard on defence to prevent conceding.
Ange Postecoglou is likely to adopt the same tactics Guus Hiddink used all those years ago in the first leg in Montevideo, setting the side up 'not to lose' rather than 'to win'. With that achieved, he can focus on a home-town victory in the second leg.
Twelve years ago Australia won the home game 1-0 over Uruguayans.
With the Honduran's poor goal scoring record and Australia's suspect defence, we're predicting a scoreless draw or a 1-0 win to Honduras. Either would be a good result for the Socceroos.
Considering this prediction our best bet is the under 1.5 total goals scored for the game on Saturday morning, currently paying $2.50.
