Analyst: James Beeson
Feb 09, 2018 03:00 PM
Over-hyped, under estimated rivals and unfavourable racing profiles.
After correctly alerting punters to two false favourites last week in our first edition of Lays of the Day, we've found two more short-priced runners to steer clear of on Saturday.
Caulfield Race 6 #6 Merchant Navy $3.50
Boom colt and Coolmore stallion prospect Merchant Navy has come up very short at $3.50 here. There is plenty against in a race where he must take on seasoned, older sprinters and some nice up and coming 3-year-olds. He will get back from gate 6 under his natural pattern of racing and will need to be very good to be getting past some of these late.
Fits the typical profile of an “over-hyped” horse following a high profile win in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, and a big spruik from connections and their disciples to try and get this colt to stud. Already easing out from the opening price and would not surprise to see him jump $4+.
Warwick Farm Race 8 #4 Show A Star $2.60
Has been supported and is getting right down to rock bottom odds now. Punters have locked onto the fact that he gets to his best trip of 1600m following the first-up Randwick win, however there are significant question marks around the quality he has been up against.
There appears to be some stiffer opposition here in terms of class and he may not get it all his own way out in front, as most and the market expect. Is a prime candidate for the dreaded “second up syndrome”!