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  • Friday, 29 March 2024
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Geelong Gary Ablett

AFL Betting Preview Round 2


All the key stats and best bets for Round 2

Adelaide v Richmond

Round 2 commences with a blockbuster that sees Adelaide come up against Richmond in the Grand Final replay from last year. The Crows will be desperate for redemption on their home turf, and the return of captain and key forward Taylor Walker from injury will certainly boost their chances. Richmond, who managed to get the job done in a tough Round 1 encounter with Carlton, will see this game as a chance to rub further salt into Adelaide’s wounds.

Key AFL Stats

  • Adelaide has won 27 of its last 32 matches at the Adelaide Oval.
  • Richmond has won the second half in 13 of their last 14 outings.
  • Before last year’s Grand Final, the Crows had won three consecutive games against the Tigers by an average winning margin of 49 points.

Suggested bet: Adelaide to cover the line (-5.5) @ $1.92

 

North Melbourne v St Kilda 

This Good Friday clash is an all-Melbourne affair, as the Saints come up against the Kangaroos. Both teams would have earmarked this game as must-win if they want to be playing finals footy come September. After a disappointing loss to Gold Coast in Round 1 in which they only managed to score 39 points (albeit in cyclonic conditions), the Kangas look like they will struggle to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon. The Saints should be winning comfortably, but after failing to really impress in their Round 1 victory over lowly Brisbane, anything is possible.

Key AFL Stats

  • The Kangaroos have lost 7 consecutive matches at Etihad Stadium.
  • St Kilda has won 6 of its last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium.
  • In the last 7 meetings between these two sides, the game has been won by the favourite.

Suggested bet: St Kilda to cover the line (-19.5) @ $1.92

 

Carlton v Gold Coast 

After booting the first 5 goals of the game, the Blues would’ve been disappointed to go down to the Tigers in last week’s season opener. The Suns meanwhile got the job done in tough weather conditions against an ordinary Kangaroos outfit. You’d have to think that Carlton’s form reads better from Round 1, with their gallant loss to the reigning premiers no disgrace for a young team. But with the similarly youthful and talented Suns team coming into this game confident off the back of a win, it promises to be a tight affair.

Key AFL Stats

  • Gold Coast has scored 60 points or less in their last three matches.
  • The Suns have lost 28 of their last 29 interstate away games as the underdog.
  • The last time these two sides met at Etihad Stadium, it was the Suns who won by a margin of 28 points.

Suggested bet: Carlton to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25

 

Collingwood v GWS

The highlight of Saturday’s games sees the Magpies host the Giants at the MCG. Last week’s 34-point loss to the Hawks probably doesn’t do Collingwood justice, who played well, but just failed to execute in the key moments. The Giants however were unstoppable in their 82-point mauling of the Bulldogs. Toby Green and Jeremy Cameron were on fire in the forward line, kicking 10 goals between them. They will look to repeat the dose against a Magpie side that will have a highly partisan home crowd behind them.

Key AFL Stats

  • GWS has failed to cover the line in four of their last five matches at the MCG.
  • GWS has lost 11 of their last 12 matches at the MCG.
  • Four of the Magpies’ last five outings have gone under the total match points line.

Suggested bet: GWS to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10

 

Brisbane v Melbourne 

Two Round 1 losers will be desperate to get their first win of the season when the Demons head up to the Sunshine State to face the Lions. Melbourne will be keen to put last week’s agonizing 3-point loss behind them, in a game where big Max Gawn had a set shot in the last 30 seconds to win the game, only to kick a behind. Brisbane were okay in their 25-point loss to St Kilda but will need to improve drastically to beat this Melbourne outfit.

Key AFL Stats

  • Brisbane has lost their past 5 consecutive night matches at the Gabba.
  • Brisbane has only won 1 of their last 8 matches in Round 2.
  • The Demons have won their last three games against the Lions by an average margin of 33 points.

Suggested bet: Melbourne to cover the line (-18.5) @ $1.92

 

Fremantle v Essendon

The Dockers’ first home game at the new Perth Stadium will be a stern challenge, coming up against a Bombers side confident after an impressive win over the Crows in round 1. Fremantle weren’t so impressive in their opening game, losing by 50 points to Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. However, of all the games in Round 2, this is the one that has the smell of an upset. Essendon will need to be at the top of their game again if they are to come away with the 4 points in what is sure to be a hard-fought encounter.

Key AFL Stats

  • Eight of Fremantle’s last nine night matches have gone under the total match points line.
  • Each of Essendon’s last seven night matches have gone under the total match points line.
  • Essendon hasn’t won an away game against Fremantle since Round 3 in 2013.

Suggested bet: Total match points under 181.5 @ $1.90

 

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

With both teams looking for their first win of the season, this is sure to be a bruising and hard-fought encounter. The Bulldogs are carrying more baggage from Round 1, with an 82-point thrashing at the hands of GWS compounded by a season-ending ACL injury to Tom Liberatore. They will be looking to put it all behind them, and quickly. West Coast meanwhile were pretty good against the Swans. It was Lance Franklin’s bag of 8 that proved the difference, with the Eagles’ missing the presence of their talisman and goal-kicking freak Josh Kennedy, who isn’t set to return until Round 6.

Key AFL Stats

  • The Bulldogs have a 14-3 (82.4%) W/L record at Etihad Stadium following a loss in the previous round, from 2015 onwards.
  • The Eagles have won their last two encounters with the Bulldogs, by a margin of 7 and 8 points respectively.
  • The Bulldogs have won three of their last four home games against the Eagles.

Suggested bet: Head-to-Head - Western Bulldogs @ $1.60

 

Sydney v Port Adelaide

Two teams fresh off impressive wins will be at each other’s throats looking to make it two from two. New recruits Jack Watts and Steven Motlop had an impressive start to their Port Adelaide careers, booting 5 goals between them in Port’s powerful victory over the Dockers by 50 points. While Sydney were equally impressive in their 29-point triumph over the Eagles, it was Buddy who stole the show, booting 8. However, if the Swans are to win again, they will need to get more goals out of their other forwards.

Key AFL Stats

  • The last time Port came to the SCG, they embraced their underdog tag and beat the Swans convincingly by 28 points.
  • The Swans have a 14-4 (77.8%) W/L record at the SCG following a win in the previous round, from 2015 onwards.
  • Two of Port’s last three losses at the SCG have been by 10 points or less.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide to cover the line (+16.5) @ $1.92

 

Geelong V Hawthorn 

This traditional Easter Monday clash sees the latest chapter in the fierce rivalry between the two most successful teams of last decade, Geelong and Hawthorn. With both teams coming off impressive Round 1 wins, Gary Ablett back and firing for the Cats, and in front of a predictably huge crowd, this fixture shapes as the game of the round. This clash will be a battle of the Mids. Despite racking up a Round 1-record 54 disposals, expect Tom Mitchell to be outclassed against Ablett, Joel Selwood, and Patrick Dangerfield who will most likely return to the team after a dodgy hamstring kept him out of Round 1.

Key AFL Stats

  • Three of the past four games between Geelong and Hawthorn have been decided by 4 points or less.
  • The Hawks have only won 2 of their last 6 (33.3%) games against the Cats.
  • Hawthorn has only lost 5.6% of its games by 40 or more points since 2010.

Suggested bet: Geelong to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.30

 

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