Analyst: James Beeson
Mar 09, 2018 01:56 AM
Closer to the speed a big advantage
Not the highest quality edition of the Newmarket Handicap here, however it will be interesting nonetheless. There does not appear to be a break neck speed engaged and whilst Lord Of The Sky will look to take it up down the flat side, suspect he is not as spritely this time in. Can see him and Thronum getting away with a few cheap sectionals, and those that are just in behind them, close to the speed, hold a big advantage.
Race Track Traits
Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 4 meters the entire circuit and fine weather predicted. Riders appear to be favouring the crown of the track for straight racing in recent weeks and with the early speed drawn toward the rail, suspect in this big sprint feature, that the bulk of the field will race on the flat side.
Significant money has arrived for Supido which has been $17 into $13. Merchant Navy is unwanted early drifting from $4.40 to $5, whilst Brave Smash has been supported into $7.50 from $8 openers.
#1 Redkirk Warrior $6.50
Jaw dropping run first-up in the Black Caviar Lightning. There is more quality here and although the second-up record appeals, suspect he is at his best first-up. Will get back and will need to find a trail behind a good one to tow him into it late. Although he won this race last year, has to lump 57.5kg on Saturday and punters should feel comfortable to take the gamble against him this week.
#2 Brave Smash $8 > $7.50
Interesting decision by the team to drop him back in distance here. It would appear they are firmly focussed on a stud deal where they know if he can win over a big Group 1 sprint trip, his commercial value will go through the roof! As such they would have left no stone unturned for this and although he will need the tempo to be strong, represents a great chance.
#3 Rich Charm $7.50
Loves the track and distance albeit in a somewhat lesser grade. Still believe he is well up to this and the market is keeping him very safe at $7.50. Like a few of the key hopes, will look to get cover and be storming late but he may be closer to the speed than most of the “run on” hopes and this could prove to be the difference.
#5 Supido $17 > $13
Has failed to live up to the hype that surrounds him almost every start. Gets back and runs on and if that is the pattern on the day, a few of these can do it better than him.
#7 Thronum $12
Likes to lead and will probably do so again here, and with not a huge amount of warp speed engaged could get it cheap. Will need a big kick to be holding out the classy ones coming after him from the 300 mark and doubt he can hang on.
#11 Merchant Navy $4.40 > $5
They went too slow for him last start in the Rubiton where the run was still full of merit. There does not look to be break neck speed engaged again here and hence will need to be good to run on. Connections may employ tactics to be closer to the speed this time around, and if the runners drawn inside stay on the flat side of the track, it could set up well for him.
#14 Catchy $11
Punters love this filly who has chalked up a win down the straight over this trip prior. They could ride her forward or back here and with no weight, suspect they may try and press on early and make some of the top weights earn it. A real throw at the stumps from Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig to be entering her in this, but they have pulled it off before!
Of The Others….
Booker was a huge run in the Oakleigh Plate and probably should have won. If it was not for a torrid run out wide where she bravely kept on coming. That will have her fit.
1st Rich Charm
4th Brave Smash