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Author: Mick Gannon
Mar 29, 2018 12:22 PM
AAP
Your NRL betting guide for Round 4
The Cowboys return home after a poor showing against the Melbourne Storm and will be looking to take advantage of an understrength Panthers side. After a promising start to the season, the Panthers lost to the Bulldogs last week after losing star halfback Nathan Cleary in the first half to injury.
Key NRL stats
- Points have proven hard to come by at 1300 Smiles stadium, with 12 of the last 13 games resulting in ‘under’ total match points line.
- The last six of seven away games for the Panthers has resulted in ‘under’ total match points line.
- The match-up between these two clubs at 1300 Smiles stadium has seen the Cowboys win by a margin of 1-12, on four of the last five outings.
Suggested bet: Total match points under 41.5 @ $1.90
The Bulldogs held off a Panthers comeback last week to claim their first victory of the season, however they looked to pull up stumps late in the game which nearly brought them undone after an impressive first half performance. The Rabbits were too strong for a Manly outfit who were coming off a 54-point drubbing over the Eels. The Rabbits’ form-line is clearly the stronger of the two clubs, however questions remain as to whether Souths can string together back-to-back performances.
Key NRL stats
- The Dogs have covered the line in their last four day games against the Rabbitohs.
- Points are at a premium in fixtures involving the Bulldogs, with nine of their last 12 games resulting in ‘under’ the total match point line.
- Five of the last six day games between these two sides have resulted in ‘under’ total match points line.
Suggested bet: Total match points under 44.5 @ $1.90
The Strom were dominant against a strong Cowboys outfit last week and have won 22 of the 34 previous clashes between these two clubs. The Sharks were too good for a very average looking Eels side in a game that only produced 18 points.
Key NRL stats
- The Sharks have covered the line only once in their past 14 matches at home.
- Scoring points hasn’t come easy for the Sharks in recent times, with their last six games resulting in ‘under’ the total match points line
- The last five games between these two sides have resulted in an average total match points of 24 points per game.
Suggested bet: Storm to cover the 3.5 line into total match points under 38.5 @ $3.50
The Warriors are three-from-three and on a high as they cross the Tasman to face off against competition favourites the Sydney Roosters. The match-up between former Rooster Roger Tuivasa-Scheck and Chooks’ number one, James Tedesco, is mouth-watering. In what is shaping up to be the match of the round, Warriors fans will be hoping their team can pass their toughest test yet. The Cooper Cronk/Luke Keary combination clicked into gear last week against the Newcastle Knights and the Warriors will need to keep them quiet if they are to have any chance of remaining undefeated,
Key NRL stats
- The Warriors have struggled away from home over the past 12 months, losing 12 of their last 15 away games.
- The Kiwis have covered the line only once in the last six games which have been played at night.
- The last five match-ups between these two sides have resulted in an average of 34 total match points scored.
Suggested bet: Roosters to cover the line -9.5 into total match points under 43.5 points @ $3.80
Manly are coming off a humiliating defeat to a determined Souths outfit last week, whilst the Raiders stole defeat from the jaws of victory yet again. It’s been a tough week for Manly with salary cap issues playing out in the media and you’d expect the Sea Eagles to do what they do best and lift to another level while their back is against the wall. If that happens, expect the chorus of Raiders fans calling for change in Canberra to continue.
Key NRL stats
- The Raiders have failed to cover the line in the first three matches of 2018.
- The Sea Eagles have won six consecutive games at home.
- Points have been hard to come by at Lottoland, with the last six games resulting in ‘under’ the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Sea Eagles to cover the line -5.5 @ $1.90
The Dragons have started this season like a bullet out of a gun, tearing apart the Gold Coast Titans in Toowoomba last weekend to make it 3-0. Dragons fans will be weary however, given their 2017 campaign begun in similar fashion only for an implosion mid-season. The Knights were well and truly brought back to earth in round three after a classy Roosters outfit put them to the sword. Expect a bolder showing from the Novocastrians this week.
Key NRL stats
- The Dragons have dominated the Knights in recent times, winning 9 of the last 11 games between the two.
- The Dragons have won six of their last eight home games.
- The last three encounters between these two clubs have produced an average of 49 total game points.
Suggested bet: Dragons to win and total match points to be over 43.5 @ $2.50
The Broncos found a way to win against a determined Tigers outfit last week and now find themselves the shortest priced favourite this week at $1.20. This price doesn’t reflect Brisbane’s form, rather the Titans lack of it. The Gold Coast side were awful against the Dragons as their squad gave their best impersonation of turnstiles in defence, conceding 54 points.
Key NRL stats
- The Titans defence has been poor so far in 2018, they have conceded an average of 30+ points per game after three rounds.
- The Titans have not beaten the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium since 2007.
- The Broncos are hard to beat at Suncorp, winning nine of their last ten home games
Suggested bet: Broncos to cover the line of -11.5 @ $1.90
Tiger's fans can consider themselves hard done by after going down to the Broncos last week via a controversial penalty in golden point. The Eels have been terrible in all three outings this year and will need to improve significantly to overcome a stubborn Tigers side.
Key NRL stats
- The Eels have won four of their last five outings against the Tigers.
- The Eels’ attack has been dreadful in 2018, scoring a measly six points per game on average.
- The Tigers’ defence has been outstanding in 2018, conceding only 25 points in three games at an average of just over 8 points per game
Suggested bet: Total match points under 38.5 @ $1.90
