Analyst: James Beeson
Mar 10, 2018 10:31 PM
False favourites highlighted in your racing form guide
Flemington Race 6 #11 Merchant Navy $5.00
Has come up a false favourite in the big Group 1 sprint at Flemington, where he not only meets a high class field but more significantly, is taking on the older horses. High profile ownership group Coolmore are desperate to land him at stud with a big scalp, and have bitten off way more than they can chew here.
Normal pattern is to get back and whilst it can be expected that Lord Of The Sky and Thronum will lead, suspect they won't go as quickly as most expect. Of those two, Lord Of the Sky is far from the blistering early sectionals reeled off in previous preparations, and if they get a breather up front at any stage, those worse than midfield will be severely disadvantaged. Merchant Navy will most likely be one of those getting well back, the current $5.00 is a great lay and would expect this colt to drift significantly before they jump.
Randwick Race 2 #3 Houtzen $2.30
Everyone will want to tell you how good the trial was (the one where Chautauqua stayed in the gates), however in typical trial fashion she was ridden along early to build a lead that was never going to be eaten into. Suspect she has had her fair share of issues, as they don’t appear to be on any particular feature path this time in and it looks like they have shown their hand of being very cautious by entering in this lesser class affair, first-up. When that happens, it usually reeks of a disjointed prep and this could see her blowing in the wind late in betting.
There are a few smart ones on the way up here and the map has her having to soak up plenty of pressure from Debonairly and Perast (both speedsters drawn out wide). Too many question marks and the smell has started to waft around the industry in regards to her not having come back that well. Expect the current unders of $2.30 to drift.