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Author: Alex Christodoulou
Apr 05, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
All the key stats and best bets for Round 3
The opening game of Round 3 sees Carlton face Collingwood at the MCG in the AFL’s most fierce rivalry. Both teams are looking for their first win of the season, ramping up the stakes in what’s set to be an already bruising and hard-fought encounter. Carlton would be stung after a meek thrashing at the hands of lowly Gold Coast in Round 2. They will need to rapidly improve against a Collingwood outfit who have been spirited in their two defeats against high-flying Hawthorn and GWS.
Key AFL Stats
- Carlton has lost 16 consecutive night matches at the MCG.
- Each of Collingwood’s last five night matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
- The Magpies have won 5 consecutive night matches against the Blues.
Suggested bet: Collingwood to cover the line (-12.5) @ $1.92
This game could get ugly for the Lions. The Power, winners of both games this season including an impressive 23-point triumph over the Swans at the SCG, face the wooden spoon favourites who may have to wait a fair while for their first win of the season. New Port recruit Tom Rockliff will come up against his old side and the team he captained before his move down south. Even with the motivation of getting stuck into their old skipper, the Lions players will struggle to keep the score respectable.
Key AFL Stats
- Brisbane has lost each of their last 5 matches at the Adelaide Oval by a margin of 40+ points.
- The Power have won 10 of their last 12 day matches.
- Ten of the Power’s last 13 day matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Port Adelaide to cover the line (-47.5) @ $1.92
This all-Melbourne clash sees the young talent of the Demons face an ageing Kangaroos side. The Kangas were the surprise package of Round 2, belting the higher-fancied St Kilda by 52 points and demonstrating that there is still plenty of quality in their unfancied side. North’s bigs Ben Brown, Todd Goldstein and Jarrod Waite were key in this surprise win, but you would suspect that if Melbourne’s players turn up, they will run rings around the opposition. However, there is a curse that Melbourne will have to break if they are to win, having lost the last 17 games against the Roos.
Key AFL Stats
- North Melbourne has won 17 consecutive matches against Melbourne.
- Kangaroos full forward Ben Brown has been the leading goal-kicker in the last two matches between the two sides.
- Each of the last 3 contests between these two teams has been decided by a margin of 15 points or less.
Suggested bet: Melbourne to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10
With both teams fresh off impressive upset-victories over the Blues and Bombers respectively, this game will come down to who can carry their form into Round 3. Despite being a Gold Coast home game, the venue for this encounter is actually Fremantle’s home ground, the new Perth Stadium. Tom Lynch was huge for the Suns in Round 2, booting a round-high 8 goals. He will need to go close to reproducing that effort if Gold Coast are to triumph over the Dockers in Perth.
Key AFL Stats
- 7 of the previous 8 matches between the Dockers and Suns have been won by the favourite.
- Tom Lynch has kicked 3 or more goals in each of his last 3 games against Fremantle.
- Seven of Gold Coast’s last 8 outings have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Fremantle to cover the line (-15.5) @ $1.92
This Sydney derby promises to be not only one of the games of the round, but one of the games of the year. Despite dominating the contested ball and possession against the Power last week, the Swans were knocked off at home. They will be desperate to avoid back-to-back losses at the SCG. The Giants meanwhile have been equal to the task in their opening two games, despite the pressure of high expectations on their shoulders this year. Stephen Coniglio has been the star of the competition in the opening two rounds and will be looking to dominate the game again in this Saturday-night blockbuster.
Key AFL Stats
- The Swans have won seven of their last eight home matches.
- The Giants have won 3 of the last 4 Sydney derbies.
- Lance Franklin has kicked 4 or more goals in each of his last 4 matches at the SCG.
Suggested bet: Head-to-Head GWS to win @ $2.17
After a good Round 1 win, St Kilda were woeful last week against North Melbourne, only kicking a measly 5 goals in a 52-point thrashing. A drastic improvement is essential if they want to avoid a similar belting at the hands of the Crows, who will be going into this game full of confidence after triumphing over the Tigers in the Grand Final replay. Unlike the Saints’ forward fifty, the Crows are looking dangerous going forward. Taylor Walker bagged 4 goals in his return form injury last week, while Josh Jenkins impressed with 5. While St Kilda can’t be as bad as last week, Adelaide will have the firepower to get the job done.
Key AFL Stats
- The favourites have won each of the last 9 encounters between the Saints and Crows.
- Adelaide has won each of thier last 6 matches against St Kilda by a margin of 40+ points.
- St Kilda has lost seven of their last eight outings as an underdog.
Suggested bet: Adelaide to win by a margin of 40+ @ $3.00
Proving that they have reinvented themselves, it has been Hawthorn’s new brigade that have been crucial in their undefeated start to the season. Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara and Jarman Impey have flourished in Hawthorn’s midfield, and were crucial in scraping the Hawks over the line against the Cats last week. The Tigers face a tough task, but as last years’ premiers they should be full of confidence. Despite losing to the Crows in the Grand Final replay, Richmond still look like the same team that won the flag in 2017, which should be good enough here.
Key AFL Stats
- Hawthorn has a 6-8 (42.9%) W/L record as an away team in day matches from 2015 onwards.
- The total points scored in 3 of the last 4 encounters between the Hawks and Tigers has not exceeded 158 points.
- Richmond have won four of their last six clashes with the Hawks in the AFL.
Suggested bet: Total game points UNDER 184.5 @ $1.90
Sunday’s second all-Melbourne affair sees the underperforming Western Bulldogs hosting top 8 contenders Essendon. The Bulldogs have been the disappointments of the season so far, losing by 82 and 51 points respectively in their opening two rounds. Essendon meanwhile were defeated narrowly by Fremantle in Round 2 after an impressive opening-round victory against the Crows. The Bulldogs need to turn things around quickly, otherwise they are in for a long season. However, the main interest in this one for the neutral observer is how new Bomber Jake Stringer performs in his first game against his old club.
Key AFL Stats
- The Bulldogs have won their last three clashes with the Bombers.
- The Bulldogs are ranking last for contested possessions in 2018 with 231, while the Bombers are 9th with 298.
- Essendon has a 2-11 (11.4%) line record playing in Victoria as a favourite from 2015 onwards.
Suggested bet: Essendon to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25.
The final game of the round shapes as one of the most interesting, as the Cats travel to face the Eagles in the new Perth Stadium. After suffering an agonising 1-point defeat to rivals Hawthorn, this game will come down to whether Geelong can put that disappointment behind them. The Eagles meanwhile had a thumping win over an awful Western Bulldogs outfit. However, still looking for their first win in their new home, and still without Josh Kennedy up front, expect the Cats to be too strong.
Key AFL Stats
- Geelong has a 7-3-1 (W/L/D) record as an away team, coming off 5 days rest from 2015 onwards.
- The last four games between these two sides have been won by the home team.
- The Eagles have only lost 10.8% of their games by 40 or more points since 2015.
Suggested bet: Geelong to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.37
