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WesCoast Josh Kennedy

AFL Betting Preview Round 5


All the key stats & best bets for Round 5

Sydney v Adelaide 

A great game to kick-start the round with two of the premiership favourites going toe-to-toe at the SCG on Friday night. The Crows were shocking last week, never looking threatening against the Magpies on their home turf. Their potent forward line of Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins and Co. failed to fire a shot, and will be looking to make amends this week. But up against arguably the best defence in the league, their work will be cut out for them. With Buddy due to kick a bag, and the Swans boosted by the return of Gary Rohan from injury, expect Sydney to be too strong at home. 

Key AFL stats 

  • The Swans have won 8 of their last 9 home matches.
  • Lance Franklin has booted 3 or more goals in each of his last 5 matches against the Crows.
  • Adelaide has only won once in their last 7 encounters with Sydney. 

Suggested bet: Sydney to win / total match points to be UNDER the 173.5 point line @ $2.60 

 

St Kilda v GWS

St Kilda looks to be in trouble. After beating Brisbane in Round 1, they have lost three on the trot, each time by more than 40 points, and up against the ladder-leading Giants this week, nothing suggests that they won't be losing by a similar margin again. The Saints' one potential saving grace is the fact that the game is at Etihad Stadium, where the Saints have a reasonable record over the past few years. But even so, it's hard to see St Kilda being anything but competitive against the Giants who have too much talent on the park not to be winning comfortably. 

Key AFL stats

  • St Kilda have lost 9 of their last 10 matches coming in as the underdog.
  • The Saints have won 5 of their last 7 home matches at Etihad Stadium.
  • 5 of GWS's last 7 away matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.

Suggested bet: GWS to win / total match points to be under the179.5 point line @ $2.40

 

Carlton v West Coast

Still looking to pick up their first win of the season, Carlton play host to West Coast in an encounter that always has added spice due to the trade history between the two clubs. Having traded youngster Josh Kennedy as part of the deal to acquire the services of Chris Judd in 2008, the Blues will surely be ruing their decision, with Kennedy becoming one of the best full-forwards in the league. He will be looking to pile more misery on his former club in this clash. However, you'd think that Carlton can't be as bad as they were in last week's abysmal effort against the Roos in Tasmania, and will be striving to bounce back at home. Last week's injury to captain Marc Murphy could be a blessing in disguise, forcing Carlton's youngsters to pick up the slack. 

Key AFL stats

  • The underdogs have covered the line in 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Blues and Eagles. 
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the line in 6 consecutive matches at the MCG.
  • Carlton have lost 8 consecutive day matches. 

Suggested bet: Carlton to cover the (+27.5) point line @ $1.92

 

Port Adelaide v Geelong 

This blockbuster on Saturday night shapes up as the game of the round. After seeming like minor premiership contenders with three straight wins to open the season, Port Adelaide were humbled in a twenty-two-point loss to the Bombers last week. This sums up Port's performances in recent years. On their day they look like the best in the competition, but also have a tendency to lose games they should be winning. Coming up against a hardened Geelong side desperate for success this year will be a tough challenge, which is ironically good news for Power supporters, as it forces their team to give one hundred percent effort. With key Geelong defenders Lachie Henderson and Harry Taylor still out with injury, Port Adelaide's attack could be running riot, helping to overturn a poor record against the Cats.    

Key AFL stats

  • 8 of the last 9 matches between Port and the Cats have gone UNDER the total match points line.
  • Port Adelaide have won the second half in each of their last 8 matches.
  • Geelong have won 13 of their last 14 meetings with Port Adelaide.  

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide to cover the (-11.5) point line @ $1.92

 

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Two teams who find themselves on the lower rungs of the ladder will do battle on Saturday night, as the Western Bulldogs travel to Perth to face the Dockers. After a dreadful start to the year, the Bulldogs have been impressive in the past two weeks, first beating the Bombers and then narrowly going down to the highly-fancied Swans. Fremantle meanwhile have been fairly good, only losing to two high-quality teams in the Power and Giants, but also winning two from two in their new home ground Perth Stadium. This looks like it will be a tight affair, but with the added motivation of remaining undefeated at home, Freo should be winning.

Key AFL stats

  • Fremantle have won 7 of their last 8 games coming in as the favourite.
  • The Dockers have won 6 of their last 7 matches against the Dogs, all by a margin of 1-39 points.
  • Each of the Dockers' last four home matches against the Bulldogs have gone UNDER the total match points line.

Suggested bet: Fremantle to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10

 

North Melbourne v Hawthorn

This game pits two of the league's best coaches against each other, with Alastair Clarkson and Brad Scott getting the very best out of their players in recent weeks. Hawthorn have been exceptional this year and find themselves once again in the top four heading into this game. However, their flogging of the Demons last week was soured by significant injuries to small forwards Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo, which will surely blunt Hawthorn's attacking threat in the coming weeks. Whilst the Kangaroos have been proving pre-season critics wrong, instantiated by an 86-point thumping of Carlton last week, they look tested against the Hawks in this encounter.

Key AFL stats

  • Hawthorn has won 7 of their last 9 games at Etihad Stadium when coming in as the favourite.
  • The Hawks have won 5 of their last 6 encounters with the Kangaroos.
  • North Melbourne has a 7-9 (43.8%) line record in day matches at Etihad Stadium from 2015 onwards.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn to cover the (-14.5) point line at $1.92

 

Brisbane v Gold Coast

The Queensland Derby on Sunday afternoon appears to be the Lions' best chance of winning a game all year. But fresh off a 93-point mauling by the Tigers last week, Brisbane players' and fans' confidence levels must be at rock bottom. The Suns were equally ordinary last week against the Eagles, but unlike their Sunshine State counterparts, have at least recorded a win this season. Despite being only five rounds in to the competition, this game will be crucial in deciding who ends up with the wooden spoon come late August.

Key AFL stats   

  • Brisbane have won 2 of their last 6 games at the Gabba coming in as the favourite. 
  • The Suns have won 3 of their past 5 day matches against the Lions.
  • While Brisbane rank 14th for contested possessions per game (140.3), Gold Coast are 3rd with 160.8 per game. 

Suggested bet: Head-to-Head - Gold Coast to win @ $2.05

 

Melbourne v Richmond 

This heated derby has an added interest in the fact that it is scheduled to take place on Tuesday night, making it the only game played under lights on a Tuesday in recent memory. While Richmond have continued their MCG dominance from last season, Melbourne were hugely disappointing last week at home against the Hawks. After booting five goals in the opening quarter, they only managed to kick a solitary goal in the rest of the match, going on to lose by 67 points. This ugly performance was compounded by Jordan Lewis breaking his finger, an injury which will see him spend a few weeks on the sideline. The Demons will have to be at the top of their game to knock off the Tigers at the G.

Key AFL stats

  • Melbourne have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Richmond.
  • The Tigers have won their last 10 games at the MCG. 
  • From 2015 onwards, Melbourne has a 12-4 (75%) record covering the line when playing as a home team after a loss in the previous round. 

Suggested bet: Melbourne to cover the (+13.5) point line @ $1.92 

 

Collingwood v Essendon

The upcoming installment of this traditional ANZAC day clash is set to be a corker, with Collingwood and Essendon both full of confidence coming off impressive wins in Round 4. The Magpies' comprehensive victory over the Crows and the Bombers' well-deserved defeat of the Power, had both Melbourne teams looking like they will be in the thick of things come September. With so many close and hard-fought ANZAC day games in the past, this game is hard to call, but with the expected return from injury of genuine stars Taylor Adams and Jamie Eliot for the Pies, Collingwood should be too strong. 

Key AFL stats

  • Essendon has won 3 of their last 5 encounters with Collingwood at the MCG.
  • Collingwood has won 3 of their last 5 ANZAC day matches with Essendon at the MCG.
  • The Magpies are ranked 2nd for contested possessions per game this year (163.8), while the Bombers are only 13th with 141.5 per game.

Suggested bet: Head-to-Head - Collingwood to win @ $1.81

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