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Author: Mick Gannon
Apr 05, 2018 02:42 PM
AAP
The key stats & best bets for each NRL fixture
Alarm bells are ringing in the nation’s capital after the Raiders made it four losses on-the-trot last week. Even more alarming for Bulldogs fans is that the Raiders have been declared favourites, however they will be happy to see Moses Mybe named in the starting line-up after the fullback sat out the majority of last week’s loss to Souths with a concussion. Both sides have managed to steal defeat from the jaws of victory on more than one occasion this year and given neither side has shown the ability to consistently close out a game, it’s a distinct possibility this match will go into golden point.
Key NRL stats
- The Raiders have lost six of their past ten games as home favourites.
- The Bulldogs have won only two of their past ten games as underdogs away from home.
- The last seven- night games between these two sides has resulted in ‘under’ total match points line.
Suggested bet: Draw at the end of 80mins @ $21
The Roosters were blown off the park against an under-strength Warriors side last week, in what was a huge wake up call for the boys from Bondi. The bookies have made a meal of this market and put the Sharks up as underdogs after dominating a full-strength Melbourne Storm side at home last week. The Sharks have an impressive record against the Roosters in recent times and have showed plenty of defensive grit in their last two victories against the Eels and Storm.
Key NRL stats
- The Sharks have covered the line in five of their last six night games against the Roosters.
- The Sharks have won five of their last seven games as underdogs at home.
- Cronulla’s last seven games has resulted in ‘under’ total match points.
Suggested bet: Sharks to cover the line +2.5 into total match points under 36.5 @ $3.50
The Dragons have built some strong momentum through the first four rounds and will look to make it five from five when they take on the Rabbits. Souths came from behind last week against a Bulldogs side who barely gave a yelp in the second half. The Dragons are a deserved favourite coming up against a Bunnies side who will be without the suspended Sam Burgess.
Key NRL stats
- The Dragons have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites.
- The Rabbits have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs.
- Four of the Dragons last five games at home against Souths have resulted in ‘under’ total match points.
Suggested bet: Dragons to win by a margin of 13+ @ $2.30
This will be the second meeting between these two sides this season, as the Tigers take their home game to New Zealand for a double-header at Mt Smart Stadium. The Tigers stunned the Storm in round two and returned to winning form against the Eels last week after suffering a gutting loss to the Broncos in golden point. The Storm were flat last week against a Sharks outfit who grinded them out of the contest. Melbourne Storm haven’t suffered back-to-back defeats since 2015 so you’d expect a strong return to form in this match.
Key NRL stats
- The Storm have won 19 of their past 23 games as favourite.
- Points were hard to come by when these two teams met in round two, with only 18 points scored in total.
- Six of the last eight meetings between these two clubs have resulted in ‘under’ total match points.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be under 38.5 @ $1.90
The Warriors made it four on the trot after demolishing a soft Roosters outfit 30-6. The expectation is that they will improve here given they’ll be returning home and welcome Shaun Johnson back into the line-up. The Cowboys looked flat and the halves were clunky against a strong Panthers squad last week. The Jonathan Thurston led team have the firepower to blow any team off the park and you’d expect them to bounce back off a lacklustre performance.
Key NRL stats
- The Warriors have only won five of their past ten games at Mt Smart Stadium.
- The Cowboys have won their last four games against the Warriors.
- Although the Warriors have won all four games this season, they have been slow out of the blocks, conceding the first try in three of their four games in season 2018.
Suggested bet: Head-to-head Warriors to win @ $1.92
Both sides have two wins to their name this season and the bookies can’t separate them. After a strong opening two rounds, the Knights have been brought back to earth over the past fortnight following away defeats to the Roosters and the in-form Dragons. They will be looking to turn things around as they return home for the first time since round one against a Broncos squad who were ordinary to say the least last week. The Broncos went into last week’s clash against the Titans as the shortest priced favourite of the round and put on a display that will have Brisbane fans worried, conceding five tries to the Gold Coast side. Star Knights centre Tautau Moga won’t get the opportunity to face his old club after being ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
Key NRL stats
- The Broncos have won five consecutive games against the Knights.
- The Broncos have won 16 of 26 games at this venue.
- The last ten games between these clubs has averaged 50 total match points.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be over 39.5 @ $1.90
The Titans produced their best performance of 2018 last week with a strong win over the well fancied Broncos, whilst the Sea Eagles proved far too strong at home against a deflated Raiders outfit. A notable inclusion for the Sea Eagles here is Dylan Walker who plays his first game of 2018, however Manly fans will be concerned with the loss of gun full fullback Tom Trbojevic who has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Key NRL stats
- Manly have won nine of their past 13 games as favourite.
- The Sea Eagles have won four of their past five games against the Titans.
- An average of 42 points has been scored between these two sides in their last five outings.
Suggested bet: Titans to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $3.50
The Panthers were dominant in a come from behind victory against the Eels in round one and have continued on their winning ways, now three-from-four for the season. James Maloney showed Panthers fans that they can cope with the loss of injured halfback Nathan Cleary, after he steered the side to a courageous win over the Cowboys in Townsville last week. The less said about the Eels, the better. The Parramatta side have been awful in all four outings this season and will need a miracle to come out on top in this game.
Key NRL stats
- The Panthers have won three of their past four games against the Eels.
- The Eels have lost seven of their last 12 games as underdogs.
- The Eels have conceded an average of 30.5 points a game in 2018, which is by far the worst defensive record in the NRL.
Suggested bet: Panthers to cover the line -4.5 @ $1.90
