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Author: Mick Gannon
Apr 12, 2018 03:40 PM
AAP
All the key stats & best bets for Round 6
The Roosters were dominant in victory against the Sharks in round five, whilst the Bunnies held their own against competition front runners St George, going down by four points. These two clubs have the oldest and most bitter rivalry in rugby league, a clash which often brings out the best in both teams.
The Roosters have dominated the Rabbitohs in recent seasons, a theme that looks set to continue with a new look chooks squad looking to carry their momentum into this game against a Souths side who are missing Sam Burgess and lock Cameron Murray.
Key NRL stats
- The Roosters have had the wood on their neighbours in recent seasons, winning the last three matches against the Bunnies by an average winning margin of five points.
- The Bunnies have failed to cover the line in their last five outings at Alianz Stadium.
- The last four night-games between these two sides have resulted in ‘under’ the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Roosters to cover the -8.5 line @ $1.90
The Storm’s attack has been blunt in their last two outings, scoring an average of seven points per game in their losses to the Sharks and Tigers. As a result, Craig Bellamy has dropped highly rated half Brodie Croft and handed the number seven jersey to Riley Jacks.
The Knights have started the season well after recording three wins from five games and will be full of confidence as they head to Melbourne. This match presents a great opportunity for the Knights to take a huge scalp as they look to retain their spot in the top eight. They will be without Mitch Barnett who will miss the game through suspension.
Key NRL stats
- Games at AAMI park average 31 total match points.
- The Storm have won eight of their last nine home games against the Knights.
- The Knights have managed to cover the line against the Storm in five of their last six meetings.
Suggested bet: Knights at the +10.5 line / Under 38.5 total match points @ $3.25
The Dragons came from behind to defeat the Sharks in round two and have come along in leaps and bounds since, now five from five to start the season. The Sharks are still struggling with their combinations and it’s costing them dearly, with only two wins from five games in 2018.
Matt Moylan retains the fullback position ahead of Josh Dugan who will play in the centres after missing last week due to a groin injury. Clashes against these two rival clubs are usually tight contests so expect the Sharks to put up a stronger fight than they did against the Roosters last week.
Key NRL stats
- The Sharks have found it difficult to beat the Dragons on their home turf in recent seasons, with Saints winning seven of their last eight home games against their south coast rivals.
- The outsider has covered the line in eight of the last nine games between these two clubs.
- Points are at a premium when the Dragons play night-games at home, with eight of their past nine home matches under the lights resulting in under total match point line.
Suggested bet: Under 38.5 total match points @$1.90
The Warriors are equal ladder leaders with the Dragons and come into this match unchanged and well-deserved favourites against the Broncos. Brisbane have suffered back-to-back defeats after going down to the Titans and the Knights and will be desperate to get back to winning ways here. The form line of the Broncos appears weak and they have plenty of improving to do if they want to be competitive in this match.
Key NRL stats
- The Broncos have only managed to score a disappointing 11.5 points on average in each of their six games this season.
- The Warriors’ defensive line has held strong so far in 2018, only conceding on average 10.8 points per game after round six
- The Warriors have won the past two meetings against the Broncos by an average of 18 points, both of those wins were at Mt Start Stadium.
Suggested bet: Warriors to win by a margin of 13+ @ $3.40
The Cowboys are well-fancied favourites for the clash against the Dogs. Coming off four consecutive losses, it’s hard to believe they would be favourites, however the Dogs have been awful this year and they don’t look like improving anytime soon. Lachlan Coote makes a much welcomed return to the Cowboys side, reclaiming the number one jersey which sees Ben Hampton shift into the centres. On paper the Cowboys have a far superior team and expect them to step-up to the plate in Townsville on Saturday night.
Key NRL stats
- The Cowboys have won four of their last six home games as favourites.
- The Bulldogs have won only two of their past 11 away games as underdogs.
- The Cowboys have won the last five games against the Bulldogs.
Suggested bet: Cowboys to cover the -10.5 point line @ $2
This is far from the match of the round for footy fans, however it will be a defining game for the Parramatta faithful in 2018. A sixth consecutive loss to start the season will likely end any chances of finals football this year for the Blue and Gold army, after coming into the season as one of the competition favourites. The return of Clint Gutherson and Bevan French are huge inclusions for Parramatta and could be exactly what is needed to spark their attack into life.
The Raiders had a relieving win against an average Bulldogs outfit last week following coach Ricky Stuart’s call to arms. The centre pairing of Joey Leilua and Jarrod Croker returned to form after both scoring doubles, which will give Raiders’ confidence coming into this. The Eels have struggled to score points this season but will get their chance against a flimsy Raiders defensive line, expect plenty of points in the game.
Key NRL stats
- The last time the Eels went 0-6 to start a season was in 1991.
- The Eels attack has been awful this season, averaging a measly 8.8 points per game.
- An encouraging statistic for Eels fans is that the Raiders have conceded an average of 20+ points per game this season.
Suggested bet: Eels to win head-to-head @$2.35
With both teams coming off consecutive wins, this match-up looks to be more competitive than the bookies have it marked. The Panthers are clear favourites after coming off an average performance against the Eels, whilst the Titans have really hit their straps following victories over the Broncos and Manly. To add some spice to this clash, Bryce Cartwright returns to the foot of the mountains with a point to prove against his old club. Ryan James misses for the Titans through suspension.
Key NRL stats
- The Titans have a poor record as away underdogs, winning only three of their last ten attempts.
- The Panthers have won eight of their last ten games as favourites at home
- In what points to be a close encounter, the last three encounters between these sides have been decided by an average of five points per game, with Panthers winning two of the three games.
Suggested bet: Panthers to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $2.80
The Tigers continued their unbelievable start to the season last week, defeating the Storm for the second time in 2018. Now with four wins from five games, they face a Sea Eagles squad who will be looking to bounce back to their best at fortress Brookvale. The return of Tom Trbojevic is a significant inclusion as the Sea Eagles look to get their season back on track.
Key NRL stats
- The Tigers have a poor record at Brookvale, victorious in only one of their past 11 games at that venue
- The Sea Eagles have shown resilience in the past, boasting an impressive bounce-back record winning seven of their last ten games off the back of a loss
- In the last three games at Lottoland between these sides, Manly have won by an average of 18 points per game
Suggested bet: Manly to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $2.65
