-
Author: Mick Gannon
Apr 19, 2018 12:15 PM
AAP
All the key stats & best bets for Round 7
The Bulldogs returned to the winner’s circle with a win over the Cowboys last week and in a great sign for the Belmore faithful, the team managed to score over 20 points for the first time in 2018. The Roosters were sloppy against a determined bunnies outfit. A lack of consistency is a big issue for the boys from Bondi and they will be determined to get things right this week.
Trent Robinson has dropped winger Reece Robinson, as Joseph Manu shifts to the flank and Mitch Aubusson moves to the centres. The Doggies are unchanged.
Key NRL stats
- The Roosters have won eight of their past ten games when favourites away from home.
- The Bulldogs have a poor record at night, losing 11 of their last 13 matches under lights.
- In the last nine games between these two sides, the favourite has been victorious.
Suggested bet: Roosters to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $3.00
The Warriors suffered their first loss of the season last week, going down to the out of form Broncos. The ability to bounce back against the ladder leading Dragons will be a strong pointer to the Kiwis’ success in 2018. The Dragons have won six in a row to start the season and will look to maintain an unbeaten record off the back of an impressive 40-20 win over south coast rivals the Sharks.
No notable changes from both line-ups.
Key NRL stats
- The Warriors have had no issues covering the line as underdogs, doing so in their last three matches as outsiders.
- Points are at a premium when these two clubs meet, with four of the last five matches resulting in UNDER the total match points line.
- Eight of the last nine away outings for the Dragons have resulted in UNDER the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be UNDER the 42.5 point line @ $1.90
The Broncos relieved the pressure valve last week after scoring an impressive win against the Warriors in New Zealand in what was a “backs-to-the wall” type performance. A return home to Suncorp should be in their favour, however they meet the Storm who boast a strong win record in Brisbane and who also bounced back to form last week after defeating the Knights.
Broncos coach Wayne Bennett will be hoping the successful move of Jack Bird into the halves last week wasn’t a one-off as the NSW origin representative gets another crack in the number six jersey. Will Chambers returns from suspension for the Storm, in place of Young Tonumaipea.
Key NRL stats
- When the Strom travel to Brisbane the points tend to flow, with the last three clashes between the two sides at Suncorp resulting in OVER the total match points line.
- The Broncos have covered the line in 9 of their past 12 outings as underdogs when playing at home.
- The Strom have dominated the Broncos in recent years, winning 13 of their last 15 clashes.
Suggested bet: Broncos to cover the +4.5 line @ $1.90
The Bunnies have taken their home game to Central Coast Stadium where they’ll start clear favourites after coming off a season best performance to defeat the Roosters. They have now won three of their last four games and expectations are beginning to rise in Redfern. The Raiders made it two wins on the trot last week after a rough start to the season and will fancy their chances with a strong record against the Bunnies away from home.
The return of Sam Burgess from suspension is a significant inclusion for the Bunnies whilst lock Cameron Murray could be a late inclusion. The Raiders are expected to be 1-17.
Key NRL stats
- The Raiders have won their last four away games against the Rabbitohs.
- The Raiders’ defence away from home tends to be loose, with six of their last seven away games resulting in OVER the total match points line.
- The last five meetings between these two clubs have resulted in OVER the total match points line.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be OVER the 44.5 point line @ $1.90
The Tigers take their home game to Scully Park in Tamworth and are in scintillating form, coming off a dominant victory against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. The Knights were average against the Strom last week and will need to improve their discipline after conceding 10 penalties in Melbourne. They have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with any team in the NRL but need to find consistency.
There are some significant losses for the Tigers this week, namely Chris Lawrence and Josh Reynolds, however the return of Elijah Taylor and Tuimoala Lolohea should ease the pain for coach Ivan Cleary. The Knights are unchanged.
Key NRL stats
- The Tigers have won both games as favourite in 2018 and have covered the line in each match.
- The Knights have won only two of their last 13 games as underdogs.
- The last five clashes between these two sides have produced an average of 37.4 total match points
Suggested bet: Tigers to cover the -5.5 line @ $1.90
The Cowboys are coming off five consecutive losses in 2018, a startling fact considering this team made it all the way to the Grand Final last season without Jonathan Thurston, arguably the best player in the game. The only positive for the Cowboys coming into this clash is that they possess a strong record against their southern rivals.
The Titans had their win streak come to an end against an impressive Panthers outfit last week, however the return of prop Ryan James will be a huge boost for their forward pack. Cowboys coach Paul Green has resisted the urge to make changes to his side.
Key NRL stats
- The Cowboys are on a red-hot run against he Titans, winning their last five encounters.
- The Titans have only won three of their past 11 games as away underdogs.
- The UNDER total match points line has become a common theme at 1300 Smiles Stadium, with 9 of the last 11 Cowboys home games resulting that way.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be UNDER the 43.5 line @ $1.90
All is not well at Parramatta. Not only have they lost six on the trot, but they have only managed to score a measly 46 points in six games- a serious concern considering the attacking weapons littered throughout their roster. The Sea Eagles won their round two clash against the Eels 54-0 and will look to bounce back here after suffering an embarrassing defeat to the Tigers at home last week.
Eels fans will be hoping the return of Jarryd Hayne breathes some life back into a backline which has lacked spark this season. He moves to the wing in place of Bevan French, whilst Brad Takairangi makes his return from injury in the centres. Manly are unchanged.
Key NRL stats
- The Sea Eagles have been poor away from home in recent times, winning only two of their past six games.
- The Eels’ attack has offered little threat in 2018, scoring an average of 7.6 points per game.
- The Eels have won six of their past seven games against the Sea Eagles.
Suggested bet: Total match points to be UNDER the 40.5 line @ $1.90
The Panthers have won five from six and sit second on the table, with their only loss being a narrow defeat to the Bulldogs in round two after losing star halfback Nathan Cleary in the first half. Five-Eighth James Maloney will be jumping out of his skin in anticipation for this clash against his old team and you’d expect him to play a huge role in deciding the outcome of this match. The Sharks’ spine continues to look like they're playing a game of musical chairs as Matt Moylan shifts back into the halves and Josh Dugan returns to fullback. This will be the Sharks’ fifth different spine combination in in seven games and it’s hard to expect that results will change this weekend.
In worrying signs for Cronulla fans, they will be without Paul Gallen and Wade Graham due to injury, whilst Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis are in serious doubt. Penrith flyer Josh Mansour will be on the sidelines for a few weeks after suffering a broken cheekbone last week, with his spot on the wing to be filled by Dallin Watene-Zelezniak who returns from injury.
Key NRL stats
- The Panthers have won three of their past six away games as favourites
- The Sharks have a good record against the Panthers in recent times, winning six of their past seven meetings, and Penrith haven't won at Shark park since 2012.
- The last three clashes between these two sides has resulted in an average total match points 34.6.
Suggested bet: Panthers to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $3.25
