As the competition starts to get serious, both Hawthorn and Sydney will throw everything at this one as they look to cement their spot in the top eight. Both teams have shown glimpses of their best this year, but are yet to hit full flight.
The Hawks have been the more impressive so far and are coming into this game after two good wins against the Saints and Bombers. Tom Mitchell continues to be a ball magnet in the middle of the park, leading the league in disposals. He will be aiming for another big game against his former club.
While the Swans have been hot and cold, they have excelled away from home. With Lance Franklin set to return from a heel injury (if he passes a game-day fitness test), the Swans might just be too strong in this interstate rivalry.
Key AFL Stats
The Swans are undefeated away from home this year.
Hawthorn have won their last 3 games against Sydney, all by a margin of 6 points or less.
Sydney have won 3 consecutive matches when coming in as the underdog.
In this Saturday arvo clash, the Giants will be looking to bounce back at home after being humbled at the hands of Geelong last week. In the midst of another injury crisis, GWS showed how much they rely on their star players, most of whom were sidelined with niggling leg and foot issues.
The welcome return of Rory Lobb and Jeremy Cameron for this game will undoubtedly help the Giants, who should be too strong at home.
However, beating West Coast won't be easy, as the Eagles have only lost one game all year. Last week's 42-point triumph over the Power was arguably their best win to date, and will give them stacks of confidence going into this one. With an unchanged lineup going into this clash, it promises to be a nail-biter.
Key AFL Stats
GWS have failed to cover the line in 6 consecutive day matches at Spotless Stadium.
The Giants have won 8 consecutive day matches at Spotless Stadium.
The Eagles have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 matches as away underdogs.
Betting Tip: GWS to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10
Two of the biggest underperformers of the year, the Blues and the Bombers will do battle on Saturday afternoon and attempt to turn their season around.
Still looking for their first win, Carlton's season is already a write-off, as they will have to face the unenviable task of playing for pride until season's end. Losing big full forward Levi Casboult to a cracked rib blunts their already flailing attack, and its hard to see Carlton scoring enough points to be winning here.
Essendon's attacking spearhead Joe Daniher also faces a lengthy stint on the sidelines. Their quality small forwards will need to stand up in a game that doesn't look to have many points in it. With only two wins so far, this is a must-win game for the Bombers if they want to be playing finals footy.
Key AFL Stats
6 of Carlton's last 7 day matches at the MCG have gone UNDER the total match points line.
The Blues have lost 8 consecutive matches at the MCG
Each of the last 6 Saturday matches at the MCG have been won by the favourite.
Betting Tip: Total match points UNDER 154.5 @ $1.87
After a few disappointing weeks, the Dees look to be back on track and setting themselves up for a red hot crack at playing finals footy for the first time since 2006. They will be too much to handle for Gold Coast in this game, especially with skillful midfielder Christian Salem set for a return from a thumb injury.
The Suns have been solid this year and of the two Queensland clubs, have been the definite winners. Despite the loss of Gary Ablett to Geelong, the talent in the Suns' squad has finally begun to shine, especially by adding mental toughness into their game.
No game against Gold Coast is a gimme like it used to be, but even so, the Suns will be outgunned here.
Key AFL Stats
The Demons have won 8 consecutive games against teams from Queensland.
Melbourne have won their last 4 encounters with Gold Coast, by an average margin of 34 points.
7 of the previous 8 day matches between these sides have been won by the favourite.
Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -22.5 point line @ $1.92
The match of the round takes us to the Adelaide Oval for the always fierce Showdown.
In a Port home game, you know their passionate fans will be belting out INXS before the first bounce and be berating the umpires for free kicks until the final siren. This hostile and feverish atmosphere should give Port Adelaide the kick up the backside they desperately need, in what is their toughest task to date this year.
Adelaide are a fearsome team to face and are only bolstered by the expected returns from injury of their two best players, Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane. Three huge wins in a row have the Crows back up near the summit of the ladder where they belong.
With an imposing record of late in the Showdown and at Adelaide Oval, it's hard to see them losing.
Key AFL Stats
The Crows have won the last 5 Showdowns, by an average margin of 35 points.
Adelaide have won 11 consecutive day matches at the Adelaide Oval.
The Power have won the third quarter in 5 of their last 6 outings as underdogs.
Betting Tip: Adelaide to cover the -10.5 point line @ $1.92.
After making tough work of it against the Suns last week, the Bulldogs have another easy game this week coming up against the winless Lions at Etihad Stadium.
Back at their proper home ground, it's hard to tip against the Dogs in this game, despite their lacklustre performance last week. With the Bont back for the Bulldogs after missing last week with a hip niggle, the team from Footscray should be too strong.
A pack of Lions is called a pride and that's what Brisbane are playing for once again this season. They put in a massive performance against the Pies last week and only ended up going down by seven points in a goal-fest at the Gabba. However, putting in back-to-back performances hasn't been a strength of Brisbane lately, and you suspect they might be on the end of a mauling here.
Key AFL Stats
Each of the Bulldogs' last 7 night matches have been won by the favourites.
The Lions have covered the line in 11 of their last 15 away matches.
In their last 10 victories at Etihad Stadium, the average winning margin for the Bulldogs has been 22 points.
Betting Tip: Western Bulldogs to cover the -17.5 point line @ $1.92.
Saturday's sixth and final match takes us to Fremantle where the Dockers will look to continue their impressive home form against the struggling Saints.
With only one win to their name all season, it's getting pretty desperate in St Kilda, and if they can't taste victory here, their season is pretty much over from a finals perspective. While Seb Ross has been a shining light in St Kilda's midfield, he isn't getting enough support from the young players around him. The loss of main attacking threat Paddy McCartin, who will sit out after suffering whiplash last week, is a hammer blow to the Saints.
Fremantle and star captain Nat Fyfe just need to be on their game at home, and they will ease to victory. Ex St Kilda and current Fremantle coach Ross Lyon will be extra-motivated to orchestrate a win over his former club.
Key AFL Stats
The Saints have lost 14 of their last 16 interstate matches.
St Kilda have lost 7 consecutive away matches.
The Dockers have won 6 consecutive matches as home favourites.
Betting Tip: Fremantle to cover the -25.5 point line @ $1.92.
This Sunday afternoon Melbourne derby shapes up as the most interesting game of the round from a betting perspective.
While Richmond have been dominant at the MCG of late, this game is played at Etihad Stadium up against the Kangaroos who are fresh off a two-point win against the Swans.
What is clear is that the Kangas relish the underdog tag, with coach Brad Scott working wonders in getting his squad to turn up when nobody expects them to. He will be looking to repeat the dose here, with the Kangaroos' direct style of play suited against Richmond's high-pressure footy.
The Tigers have been imperious lately, but it's about time they slipped up. Away from the MCG, this game could be a boilover. Jarrad Waite is available for selection for the Roos, while Dion Prestia is out for the Tigers.
Key AFL Stats
Richmond have failed to cover the line in 4 of their last 5 matches against North Melbourne.
The Tigers have lost 4 of their last 6 games at Etihad Stadium.
Richmond have won 15 of their last 17 AFL games.
Betting Tip: North Melbourne to win head-to-head @ $4.25.
The final game of Round 8 sees the Magpies and Cats clash in a fixture that Collingwood have dominated in the last few years.
After narrowly getting the job done against the gallant Lions at the Gabba, Collingwood will be glad to get back home to the G for this blockbuster. Gary Ablett makes his return from injury to add extra spice to an already huge game, with both clubs looking to pick up their fifth win of the campaign.
This should be an entertaining, high-scoring and high-quality match. With Geelong's established champions coming up against Collingwood's emerging stars, this game could go either way.
Key AFL Stats
Collingwood have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Geelong.
The Magpies have covered the line in 56% of their games since 2015.
Collingwood are ranked 1st for total handballs (1348), while Geelong are 11th (1103).
Betting Tip: Collingwood to cover the +10.5 point line @ $1.92.
May 10, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
