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AFL ScotBrothers

AFL Betting Preview Round 12: The early games


Scott brothers square off at the Cattery

After a belter to kick things off on Friday night, Saturday's Geelong versus North Melbourne game pits twin brothers Brad and Chris Scott against each other.

The two identical twin coaches are among the best in the league, with Brad in particular working wonders with his unfancied Kangaroos squad. With both teams gunning for a top four spot, more than brotherly bragging rights are up for grabs.

Both Sydney teams will be looking for big wins in Saturday's final two matches.

 

Port Adelaide ($1.74) v Richmond ($2.10)

Round 12 commences with a Friday night cracker. After going down narrowly to the Hawks in Tasmania, Port Adelaide will want to get back into the winner's circle.

Back at home and up against the red-hot Tigers, the game shapes up as the perfect opportunity for them to stamp themselves as a top four team.

Even though Richmond are playing away from their MCG fortress, their unwavering form means that any game against the Tigers won't be easy. By applying constant tackling pressure to every team they face, the Tigers more often than not draw out mistakes from their opponent.

If Port are to rise to the challenge, they will need to be extra cool and collected on the ball. With a raucous home crowd behind them, maybe they can give Richmond a taste of their own medicine. 

Key Ins: Daniel Rioli (Richmond, likely) 

Key Outs: Dustin Martin (Richmond)

Key AFL Stats

  • Richmond have won 12 consecutive games as a favourite.
  • Each of the Tigers' last 8 Friday night matches as a favourite have gone UNDER the total match points line.
  • Port Adelaide are leading the league for clearances per game (41.2), while the Tigers are ranked 17th with 33.5.

AFL Betting Tip: No Bet. This is a really tough game to call. While Port don't deserve to be favourites, they are due for a big win at home.

 

Geelong ($1.45) v North Melbourne ($2.78)

A great game to kick-off Saturday sees the 6th-placed Kangaroos travel to Geelong to take on the 5th placed Cats.

So much of the interest in this fixture over the past few seasons has been the anomaly of coaches and identical twins Brad and Chris Scott facing off. Undeniably superb mentors, both brothers are no doubt working on a game plan to outsmart the other.

The last time these two clubs played each other was Round 2 last year, where the Cats triumphed by a single point. Expect another close game here.

While the Kangaroos only get better and better each week, the Cats' midfield quality, as well as their dominant record when playing in Geelong both point to a win.

Key Ins: None

Key Outs: None

Key AFL Stats

  • The Kangaroos have won the first half in each of their last 5 games against the Cats.
  • North Melbourne have lost 6 consecutive Saturday games when playing in Victoria.
  • Geelong have failed to cover the line in 6 consecutive home matches as a favourite when following a win in the previous round.

AFL Betting Tip: Geelong to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.00

 

GWS ($1.06) v Gold Coast ($9.50)

The Giants are back. 

After four consecutive losses, GWS travelled to Adelaide Oval to face the Crows in a match where many expected them to lose. Instead, they put in their best performance in recent memory to triumph by 16 points.

The question is whether they can back it up this week. Against the hapless Suns, who are fresh off an 85-point flogging at the hands of the Cats. You'd have to think so.

If GWS play as well as they did last week, they won't be winning by 85, but by 100 against the dejected Gold Coast outfit.

The expected loss of Giants' star Stephen Coniglio to concussion will definitely help the Suns' effort to keep this respectable.  

Key Ins: Matt de Boer (GWS, likely)

Key Outs: Stephen Coniglio (GWS, likely)

Key AFL Stats

  • The Giants have won their last 5 games against the Suns.
  • GWS's previous 3 home matches against Gold Coast have resulted in victories, by an average winning margin of 86 points.
  • Gold Coast have lost each of their last 26 interstate matches following a loss in the previous round.

AFL Betting tip: GWS to cover the -44.5 line @ $1.92  Best tip

 

St Kilda ($4.30) v Sydney ($1.22)

The high-flying Swans make a short migration to Melbourne where they will face the struggling Saints on Saturday night.

With a poor record against their old South Melbourne rivals, St Kilda will be looking to buck that trend with an upset win.

For punters thinking that St Kilda's last week's 13-point loss to top-of-the-table West Coast was a hard luck story, don't be fooled. Half of their goals came in the final quarter when the game was already done and dusted, and the Eagles had set up shop.

With Sydney's sensational away record this season, it's impossible to tip against them. While St Kilda are definitely an improved team in recent weeks, their biggest challenge in this game will be keeping the score line respectable.

Key Ins: Tom Papley (Sydney)

Key Outs: Jarryn Geary (St Kilda)

Key AFL Stats

  • The Swans have won their last 8 encounters with the Saints.
  • Sydney have defeated St Kilda by a margin of 40+ points in their last 6 match-ups.
  • Each of the last 11 games at Etihad Stadium have been won by the favourite.

AFL Betting Tip: Sydney to cover the -27.5 point line @ $1.92

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