AFL Betting Preview Round 15: Sunday arvo footy

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• Author: Alex Christodoulou
  Jun 30, 2018 12:57 PM
• AAP

Bombers and Kangas square off for bragging rights

After Melbourne look to make light work of St Kilda in Sunday's first Melbourne derby, Essendon will look to grab their third consecutive win and keep their slim finals chances alive. 

To round out this Round 15's fixtures, Fremantle will also be giving everything in the mad dash to sneak into finals footy. They should prove too much for the Lions.

 

Melbourne v St Kilda 

AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.13 (-38.5) / St Kilda $6.05 (+38.5)

Demons' coach Simon Goodwin will be fuming with his team's last-quarter fadeout against Port last week.

A goalless quarter from Melbourne saw them surrender the lead and eventually the result to the Power, in what was a crucial game for the top four race. Goodwin will be asking his team to respond and then some against St Kilda, who are only playing for pride.

Just as the Demons had a terrible fourth quarter, the Saints had one of their best in their last game, booting five goals to zero to overcome Gold Coast.

The bye came at an unfortunate time for St Kilda, who could have used that last-quarter momentum as a springboard into this clash. 

Even if the Saints do begin brilliantly, you'd still tip Melbourne to get the better of them. With so many in-form players, especially in the midfield, St Kilda don't really stand a chance.

Jarryn Geary (St Kilda)

 

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  Very little action on the radar, so expect Melbourne to pile on the points.

 

AFL Stats in focus

With such a huge discrepancy between these sides in three of the most telling stats, it's impossible to predict anything other than a massive Melbourne victory.

 

Key AFL Stat

• St Kilda have only won 2 of their last 14 games as underdogs.
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 AFL Betting Tip Melbourne to cover the -38.5 line @ $1.92

 

Missed our preview of the Saturday night Round 15 games? Read it here 

 

Essendon v North Melbourne 

AFL Odds: Essendon $1.91 (+0.5) / North Melbourne $1.89 (-0.5) 

This is a fascinating match-up as it appears to be a team on the way up playing host to a team on the slide. 

Essendon are finally starting to click, running out comfortable winners over the Eagles in Perth last round.

The Bombers will need to go close to winning every game from now to the end of the regular season to stand a chance of playing finals.

The first step would be a dominant win over local rivals North Melbourne in this clash.

Even though the Kangas finished with a wet sail to sneak the win over the Bulldogs, they were far from convincing.

You get the sense from their performances in their last two games that the Kangaroos are only just clinging on to their top eight position.

A slight slip-up would see them fall from the top half of the ladder, and that looks a distinct possibility here.

None

 

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  Ideal conditions for footy. Should be a high-scoring encounter at Etihad.

 

AFL Stats in focus

A key match-up that will go a long way to deciding the outcome will be between midfield guns Dyson Heppell and Ben Cunnington.

Cunnington's contested ball domination has been a key part of North Melbourne's success to date.

If Heppell can match him here, he has the all-round game to be a bigger influence to his team on Sunday.

Key AFL Stat

• Essendon have won 4 out of their last 7 games as an underdog at Etihad Stadium.

 

 AFL Betting Tip

Essendon to cover the +0.5 point line @ $1.92

 

Any idea who the best AFL expert tipsters are? Check out the leaderboard here

 

Fremantle v Brisbane 

AFL Odds: Fremantle $1.25 (-24.5) / Brisbane $4.00 (+24.5)

Round 15 concludes in Perth, with Fremantle looking to keep their slim finals chances alive with a big win over the Lions.

While Brisbane will view this clash a a terrific opportunity to record their second win in 2018, their away form this year doesn't inspire confidence.

If they can somehow manage to replicate their Gabba form out west, they will be in this game for a long way.

However, Freo have been fairly solid at home, beating the teams they should be beating all year.

While Ross Lyon's coaching strategy is often criticised for being too defense-minded, this strategy always seems to work against the struggling teams in the competition.

With Nat Fyfe running the show from the midfield, expect the Dockers to be too classy for the improving Lions.

Michael Walters (Fremantle)

 

Harris Andrews (Brisbane)

 

  A sunny winter's day in Perth for this game. The high disposal efficiency is set to continue. 

 

AFL Stats in focus

For two teams in the bottom half of the ladder, the Dockers and Lions have been very clean with the ball in their hands this season.

However, it is their lack of pressure from quality and consistent tackling which has been part of their downfall.

If Brisbane can increase their tackle pressure and impact Fremantle's ball use, this game could be closer than many expect.

Key AFL Stat

• Fremantle have won 9 of their last 10 games with the Lions

 

AFL Betting Tip

Fremantle to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.10