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Lions Hawks

AFL Betting Tips Round 17: Friday night & Saturday afternoon footy

Tagged: AFL

Proud Lions look for three in a row

Luckily punting exists because otherwise Friday night's clash between Carlton and St Kilda would be a very dull affair for neutrals.

Saturday's first game sees Brisbane attempt to make it three wins in a row for the first time in what must feel like yonks for their loyal fans. They face Hawthorn in Launceston in what will be a very tough task for the Lions.

 

St Kilda v Carlton

AFL Odds: St Kilda $1.33 (-22.5) / Carlton $3.45 (+22.5)

Not the most enthralling game on a Friday night for neutrals, as well as a tricky game for AFL punters to size up.

As the season winds down, games like this where both teams are only playing for pride can be hard to predict.

Based purely on recent form, you'd have to go with the favourites St Kilda.

However, with Carlton also demonstrating that they are capable of digging in against high-quality opposition in the past month, you wouldn't write off the hapless Blues.

Carlton were embarrassed at the hands of Brisbane last week, going down by 65 points in their worst display all year.

You'd have to expect there would be some kind of response here. However, the Saints have won two of their last three, and another win here is well and truly on the cards.

AFL Player In Kade Simpson (Carlton, likely) Jake Carlisle (St Kilda, likely)

 

AFL Player Out Caleb Marchbank (Carlton), Jacob Weitering (Carlton) Paddy McCartin (St Kilda)

 

 AFL Weather Under a closed roof at Etihad, the Saints could put on a big score if they're in the mood.

 

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

The staggering thing about Carlton's contested possession stats, is that despite ranking last in the league, their star Patrick Cripps has more contested possessions than any other player in the whole league.

This demonstrates how shallow Carlton's depth is. You shudder to think where they'd be without Cripps.

Key AFL Stat

  • Carlton have lost 12 consecutive Friday night matches

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: St Kilda to win by 1-39 points @ $2.10.

Reasoning: Nothing could induce you to back Carlton to win. However, after last week's hammering, you'd expect them to do their best to keep it respectable.  

 

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Hawthorn v Brisbane

AFL Odds: Hawthorn $1.25 (-28.5) / Brisbane $4 (+28.5)

Lions fans lookout because your team has a chance to win their third game in a row for the first time since 2013!

It's a shame that the Brisbane boys come up against the Hawks in Tasmania- a near insurmountable task.

However, with fans from 17 different clubs cheering the Lions on to victory, they might be inspired enough to pull off another miracle and defeat Alastair Clarkson's mob for the second time in 2018.

While Brisbane belted a below-par Blues outfit last week, the Hawks put on a third-quarter clinic against the resurgent Dogs. Seven goals to zip in the 'premiership quarter', and another five in the final term is an ominous sign heading into this clash.

With such an impressive finish to their game, the Hawks are sure to be full of confidence as well as determination. Don't expect them to take the Lions lightly after what happened in Round 9.

AFL Player In  None

 

AFL Player Out  Ben McEvoy (Hawthorn)

 

 AFL Weather A chilly, fine day. Hawthorn will be better suited to these cold conditions than the team from the Sunshine State.

 

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

For a team sitting sixteenth on the ladder, the Lions have been very clean with the ball this year. However, the Hawks are typically efficient with all disposals, ranking 2nd in both categories. The difference in disposal efficiency and goal kicking accuracy will widen at a relatively unfamiliar ground for Brisbane.

Key AFL Stat

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Hawthorn to cover the -28.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: Sitting on the cusp of the eight and desperate for revenge, the Hawks have too much to play for. 

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