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Melbourne Demons Christian Petracca

AFL Betting Tips Round 19 Preview: Saturday evening footy

Tagged: AFL

Can Melbourne overcome their mental Demons?

After copping an after-the-siren goal to complete their last-quarter collapse against the Cats last week, the Demons would be carrying plenty of mental scars into their clash with the Crows. 

Before this fascinating match, the Giants will be looking to win and win big against the Saints in Sydney.

The other fixture on Saturday sees the Suns looking to back up their miracle win over the Swans with a far easier task against the Blues. 

 

GWS v St Kilda

AFL Odds: GWS $1.13 (-39.5) / St Kilda $6.05 (+39.5)

St Kilda better watch out because they could easily find themselves on the end of a huge hiding here. 

The Giants are fresh from knocking off two premiership contenders in Richmond and Port Adelaide.

In front of their home fans, you feel that the Giants will be looking to impress and pile on the points, as they look to not only sure up their top eight spot, but make a charge for the top four.

St Kilda, meanwhile, were very ordinary against the Tigers last week, especially in the first half where they only managed two goals.

A repeat performance from the Saints is well on the cards, especially against a Giants defence which has been rock solid in past weeks. 

AFL Player In Ryan Griffen (GWS, likely), Aidan Corr (GWS, likely)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather A slight chance of showers but nothing to deter the Giants from scoring for fun.

AFL Player Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

While so much is made of GWS's outside running, the 'Orange Tsunami', it's really what they do in the rough stuff, on the inside, that is the hallmark of their success.

The Giants like to create stoppages as they know they have the class of contested ball-winning mids to continually win the clearances.

Players like Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward have been superb this year, and will look to dominate again in the centre.

Key AFL Stat

  • The last time these teams played each other, the game ended in a draw: Game to end in a draw @ $126

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: GWS to win by a margin of 40+ points @ $1.95

Reasoning: It's really a match up of chalk and cheese here. Unless the Saints can find something, the result will be very lopsided.

 

Missed our preview of the early games? Read it here

 

Gold Coast v Carlton

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $1.35 (-20.5) / Carlton $3.25 (+20.5)

After the boilover of the decade last week, the Suns will fancy their chances of accounting for bottom-placed Carlton.

In front of their home fans on the Gold Coast, the Suns will be looking to give their supporters something to cheer about.

However, while the Blues have been awful of late, this is their best chance to win a second game this year, and you can bet they'll be up for it.

With the good news of resigning star midfielder Patrick Cripps during the week, the Blues will look to put in a strong performance as an indication of what to expect in the future.

A loss for either team will reflect poorly on them considering the level of the opposition.

AFL Player In David Swallow (Gold Coast) Matthew Kruezer (Carlton, likely), Dale Thomas (Carlton, likely)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Fine conditions on the Gold Coast. No excuses for poor goal kicking.

 

AFL Player Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats


In struggling teams, coaches typically focus on these two stats as an indicator of the desire and effort their side is playing with.

The Suns are dominating their cellar-dwelling counterparts in both of these areas, and its part of the reason why they got the job done against the Swans last week. 

Another win looks likely for the Gold Coast side.

Key AFL Stat

  • The away team has won the past 3 meetings between these sides: Carlton to win head-to-head @ $3.25

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Gold Coast to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $1.90

Reasoning: Based on form, you can't tip the Blues. However, in a game where they should be giving 100% effort, they will keep it tight.

 

Adelaide v Melbourne 

AFL Odds: Adelaide $1.71 (-4.5) / Melbourne $2.15 (+4.5)

The Demons just can't catch a break.

In fairness, they only had themselves to blame for squandering a 29-point lead in the final quarter to lose after the siren against the Cats last week. 

This took Melbourne's record against top 8 teams this year to 0-4. Even though the Crows aren't currently in the eight, they are sure playing like it, especially at home.

With all of their gun players back from injury, Adelaide are mounting a serious challenge to make finals football. 

Winning this game is critical if they want to be there come September.

However, if the Demons can overcome their mental frailties, you'd expect that the superior quality that they have displayed in 2018 will rise to the top.

AFL Player In Taylor Walker (Adelaide)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Fine conditions, which could lead to a goal-fest.

AFL Player Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

These stats all point to a comfortable Melbourne victory.

While you have to factor in a resurgent Adelaide team playing at home, Melbourne should still have enough points to win.

Key AFL Stat

  • When these teams last played in Round 10 this year, the Demons won by 91 points: Melbourne to win by a margin of 91-100 points @ $501

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to win head-to-head @ $2.15

Reasoning: Aside from the fact that Melbourne have been better all year, they will be desperate to make up for last week's capitulation.

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