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Dockers NaFyfe 2018

AFL Betting Tips Round 20 Preview: Sunday afternoon footy

Tagged: AFL

Can Dockers turn the tide in Western Derby?

Sunday's opening two fixtures see both the Giants and Demons go into their clashes as heavy favourites.

A top four spot is on the line and why the cellar-dwelling Blues and Suns will struggle to keep the scores respectable.

The definite highlight is the Western Derby, where Fremantle need to prove that they can play well without injured captain Nat Fyfe, and turn around a six-game losing streak against the Eagles.

 

Missed our preview of Saturday night's games? Read it here

 

Carlton v GWS

AFL Odds: Carlton $8.00 (+46.5) / GWS $1.08 (-46.5) 

The Blues Baggers finally had something to celebrate last week, after their second win of the season.

While the opposition was only the struggling Suns, the Blues put in a solid performance to win by an impressive margin of 35 points.

However, as the old adage goes, a week can be a long time in football.

Expect the Giants to make the Blues wish they were still on the Gold Coast in this clash.

After a slow start, the Giants finally switched themselves on enough to breeze to victory against the Saints in Round 19.

With goal-scoring freak Jeremy Cameron back after a five-game suspension here, look to him to kick a bag and make up for all the weeks he missed.

AFL Player In Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton, likely) Jeremy Cameron (GWS), Matt de Boer (GWS), Ryan Griffen (GWS)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather A closed roof at Etihad Stadium will theoretically help the Giants pile on the points.

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

The only way the Blues could possibly win here is if the Giants are wayward in front of goal.

Indeed, Carlton's two wins in 2018 came against the Bombers and Suns, both of whom kicked with shocking accuracy in front of goal (Essendon 10.18, Gold Coast 5.14)

With the class of Cameron back, the Giants will no doubt improve their goal accuracy percentage which is the final piece of the puzzle needed to be a genuine premiership-winning team.

Key AFL Stat

  • When these teams last played in Round 12, 2017, the unfancied Blues had a remarkable 1-point victory: Carlton to win by a margin of 1-2 points @ $51

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: GWS to cover the -46.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: The Giants had a much needed scare last week after trailing just before half time against the Saints.

Expect them to come out and try to put the game away early.

 

Melbourne v Gold Coast

AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.04 (-64.5) / Gold Coast $11 (+64.5) 

After a strong win over the Crows a week ago, the Demons will be in a very good position if they can get the expected four points against the Suns.

Only complacency would see Melbourne throw away a gimme win against a Gold Coast outfit that was humbled by the bottom-placed Blues last week.

However, you only need to look at Round 18, where the Suns defied all logic to beat the Swans in Sydney. 

They will be aiming to administer a repeat dose against the Dees in Melbourne, as unlikely as it may seem.

But all things being equal, there is only one likely outcome, and it's a big Melbourne win. 

AFL Player In Michael Barlow (Gold Coast, likely)

AFL Player Out Steven May (Gold Coast), David Swallow (Gold Coast, likely)

AFL Weather Windy with showers about. Could curb the Demons scoring output, but unlikely.

 

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

Over four quarters of footy, the huge discrepancy between these percentages will equate to more than 50 points on the scoreboard.

Key AFL Stat

  • Melbourne have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 matches as a favourite following a win in the previous round: Melbourne to cover the -64.5 point line @ $1.92

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -64.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: It's a big line, but Melbourne have been scoring points for fun this year, especially against the struggling teams.

Indeed, when they faced the Suns on the Gold Coast earlier this year, they triumphed by 69 points.

 

West CoastFremantle

AFL Odds: West Coast $1.15 (-36.5) / Fremantle $5.50 (+36.5) 

The final game of the round is another cracker, with two fierce rivals coming face to face in the Western Derby. 

Even though Fremantle have been poor of late and are well out of the finals race, you can bet they will be up for this clash

The Dockers also need to prove that they are not a one-man-team, and have a strong game without Nat Fyfe leading them around the park.

The Eagles meanwhile had a pretty major slip up last week, going down by forty points to the Kangas in Hobart.

They only managed a solitary goal in the whole second half, missing the services of Josh Kennedy who is again sidelined with injury.

A strong performance is needed here to sure up a top two spot and a home qualifying final.

AFL Player In Lewis Jetta (West Coast), Luke Shuey (West Coast), Matt Taberner (Fremantle)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Cloudy but no rain forecast. Both teams will look to improve in front of goal after last week.

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

This table explains why the Dockers consistently fail to score enough points to win games of footy. 

The Eagles meanwhile are a high-scoring team who suffered a rare blip in Round 19, only putting a measly 41 points on the board.

You'd think West Coast will have too many points to get over the line.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Eagles have won the last 6 Western Derbies: West Coast to win head-to-head @ $1.15

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: West Coast to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.05

Reasoning: The Eagles just have too many points in them not to win. The Dockers will be up for the Derby and attempt to avoid an embarrassing blowout.

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