Can Giants cement Top 4 spot in Battle of the Bridge?
The twilight game on Saturday shapes up as the game of the round, with both Sydney sides looking to establish themselves as the Harbour City's best team.
Another derby takes place on Saturday night, with the Gold Coast aiming for a redemptive win over big brothers Brisbane.
Also on Saturday night, Hawthorn will be hunting another four points in their race for the top four.
The latest edition of the "Battle of the Bridge" promises to be one of the best yet.
Both Sydney clubs are in strong positions with two rounds to play.
If the Giants win, they will likely secure a top four spot, while if the Bloods triumph, they will guarantee themselves a finals berth.
It wasn't looking all that flash for the Swans a fortnight ago, but wins against the Magpies and Demons in consecutive weeks has them in the thick of things once again at the pointy end of the season.
Aliir Aliir's form in defence has been a huge part of this success. He will need another top game if the Swans are to get over the line, especially after the injuries to Nick Smith and Alex Johnson.
Despite significant injury concerns of their own, GWS are still deserved favourites to get the four points.
With a big crowd expected at Spotless Stadium for this derby, the Giants will look to impress with a strong performance.
Aiden Corr (GWS, likely), Zak Jones (Swans)
Josh Kelly (GWS, likely), Heath Shaw (GWS), Alex Johnson (Swans), Nick Smith (Swans)
No rain, but with strong winds forecast, kicking accuracy in front of goal could become a challenge.
AFL Stats in Focus
League Rankings - Going forward
GWS
Swans
Contested Possessions
3rd
9th
Inside 50s
5th
15th
Goal Accuracy Percentage
14th
4th
All year, it has been the last step that has let the Giants down.
They have a key advantage over rivals when it comes to winning the ball, and getting it inside 50, however it is their goal kicking accuracy that needs to improve.
Another poor kicking display will open the door for the Swans to nab the four points.
Key AFL Stat
The Giants have won each of their last Saturday matches by a margin of 1-39 points: GWS to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25
AFL Betting Tip: GWS to win head-to-head @ $1.71
Reasoning: As good as the Swans have been in the last two rounds, you feel that beating GWS at Spotless is just a step too far.
From the Sydney derby, Round 22 takes us further up north for the Queensland derby between the Suns and Lions.
As much as Gold Coast would want to bounce back at home after being humbled last week by the Tigers, the more established Brisbane Lions look to have their measure here.
Brisbane once again put in an impressive performance last week, leading the Magpies for much of the first half down in Melbourne.
Dayne Beams continues to impress since relinquishing the responsibility of captaincy, and he is set for another big game here.
A strong win in this clash will do wonders for Brisbane's confidence and to instil belief that they can return to the top eight next season.
None
Darcy Gardiner (Lions), Pearce Hanley (Suns)
Perfect conditions for footy, which should favour high-scoring football.
Key AFL Stats
The Lions have won each of their last 4 night matches against the Suns: Brisbane to win head to head @ $1.23
Gold Coast have lost 9 consecutive matches at Metricon Stadium: Brisbane to win head to head @ $1.23
The Suns have covered the line in 5 of their previous 7 home matches against the Lions: Gold Coast to cover +27.5 point line @ $1.92
AFL Betting Tip: Brisbane to win by a margin of 40+ points @ $2.60
Reasoning: The Lions have been great in the second half of the season, compared to the Suns awful showing.
AFL Odds: St Kilda $5.30 (+33.5) / Hawthorn $1.16 (-33.5)
After last week's terrific win over Geelong, there is no question of the Hawks flying under the radar anymore.
Sitting in fourth spot on the ladder, Hawthorn have two winnable games to finish their regular season, beginning with this match against local rivals St Kilda.
With Tom Mitchell starring week after week, as well as Luke Breust leading a well-oiled forward line, Alastair Clarkson's men should easily brush aside the lowly Saints.
Off the back of four consecutive defeats, St Kilda will be desperate to notch up a win before the end of 2018.
Unfortunately for them, you can't see that happening here.
Jarryd Roughead (Hawks, likely), Ben McEvoy (Hawks, likely)
St Kilda have lost 8 consecutive Saturday night matches: Hawthorn to win head to head @ $1.16
The Saints have covered the line in 4 of their last 5 Saturday matches as an underdog: St Kilda to cover the +33.5 point line @ $1.92
Since 2015, Hawthorn have only covered the line in 36% of their matches as a favourite following a win in the previous round: St Kilda to cover the +33.5 point line @ $1.92
AFL Betting Tip: St Kilda to cover the +33.5 point line @ $1.92
Reasoning: Even though the Saints haven't won in a month, they have been plucky, and led for significant portions of the game against the Giants and Bulldogs.
They should have enough desire to keep this game tight until the end.
Aug 18, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
Aiden Corr (GWS, likely), Zak Jones (Swans)
Josh Kelly (GWS, likely), Heath Shaw (GWS), Alex Johnson (Swans), Nick Smith (Swans)
No rain, but with strong winds forecast, kicking accuracy in front of goal could become a challenge.
AFL Stats in Focus
AFL Betting Tip: GWS to win head-to-head @ $1.71
