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Richmond Dusty Martin 2018

AFL Betting Tips Round 22 Preview: the early games

Tagged: AFL

Ruthless Richmond ready to make it 20

The penultimate round of the 2018 AFL regular season kicks off with the Tigers looking to extend their MCG winning streak to twenty.

Then on Saturday, the Pies will be out to pile further misery on the Power, and put their chances of playing finals footy in serious doubt.

Also early on Saturday afternoon, the Cats will look to make light work of the Dockers, and give themselves every opportunity of playing in September.

 

Richmond v Essendon

AFL Odds: Richmond $1.30 (-23.5) / Essendon $3.66 (+23.5)

The equation is simple with only two rounds to play.

A win for Richmond will secure the minor premiership, while a loss for the Bombers will spell an end to their hopes of playing finals footy.

As unrealistic as their chances are of dethroning the Tigers at the MCG, the Dons aren't without a hope.

Essendon have won seven of their last ten and are playing fantastic and exciting footy.

There are even whispers that full forward and attacking gun Joe Daniher will make an unlikely return from injury, such is the importance of this fixture.

But no matter who the Bombers line up with, Richmond's MCG record speaks for itself. 

You simply can't tip against the Tigers.

AFL Player In Toby Nankervis (Tigers), Matt Guelfi (Bombers)

AFL Player Out Kane Lambert (Tigers), Orazio Fantasia (Bombers)

AFL Weather A slight chance of a light rain, but otherwise dry conditions for clean footy.

 

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

MIDFIELD STATS rankings Richmond Essendon
Centre Clearances 3rd 5th
Contested Possessions 8th 11th
Inside 50s 2nd 7th

It appears that the only formula for beating the Tigers at the MCG is an absolute domination in the midfield, particularly in contested ball stats. 

When the Cats came within three points of defeating the Tigers at the 'G, they were +30 in the contested possession numbers- a huge discrepancy.

But even with this domination in the scrap, Geelong still lost. And unfortunately for Essendon fans, their team don't play a contested ball-based style of footy.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Tigers have won 19 consecutive matches at the MCG: Richmond to win head-to-head @ $1.30

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Richmond to win by 25+ points @ $2

Reasoning: The Tigers only look to be getting better in the lead up to finals. With Jack Reiwoldt in career-best form, expect another big score from the Richmond boys. 

 

Want to know who the best celebrity tipster has been in 2018? Check out our leaderboard here

 

Collingwood v Port Adelaide

AFL Odds: Collingwood $1.42 (-16.5) / Port Adelaide $2.90 (+16.5)

If alarm bells weren't ringing at Port Adelaide HQ, they certainly are now.

Four losses from their past five, compounded by injuries to key talls Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder in last week's after-the-siren loss to West Coast, has the Power perilously close to missing out on finals footy.

They come up against the Pies, who have injury issues of their own.

However, Collingwood's defence will be bolstered by the return of Jeremy Howe, in what is a massive inclusion not just for this game, but their upcoming finals campaign.

After steadying the ship last week with a 31-point victory over the Lions, the Magpies will look to swoop while their opponents are in disarray. 

AFL Player In Jeremy Howe (Collingwood, likely)

AFL Player Out Charlie Dixon (Port), Paddy Ryder (Port), Jared Polec (Port, likely)

AFL Weather A high chance of showers, which could make scoring goals slightly more difficult for both sides.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • Collingwood have won 7 of their last 10 matches as a favourite by a margin of 1-39 points: Collingwood to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2
  • Jordan De Goey has kicked 3 or more goals in each of his last 4 games.
  • Port Adelaide have lost 26 of their last 31 interstate day matches as an underdog: Collingwood to win head to head @ $1.42

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Collingwood to cover the -16.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: It's hard to see Port responding after the disaster of last week. Collingwood have just been too good all year to slip up here.

 

Geelong v Fremantle

AFL Odds: Geelong $1.02 (-51.5) / Fremantle $13 (+51.5)

Even if the Cats win both of their last two games, they are no guarantee of securing a finals berth. 

But, as Chris Scott would have undoubtedly told his side, they can only go about the task in front of them, and that is getting the four points against the Dockers.

This shouldn't prove too difficult, with a Fremantle side notorious for being poor away from home set to make one of the toughest road trips in the AFL.

Down at the Cattery, Geelong are near unstoppable. 

And with the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett and Co. coming up against a Nat Fyfe-less Freo midfield, the score could get really ugly in this one.

AFL Player In None

AFL Player Out Rhys Stanley (Cats), Michael Walters (Dockers)

AFL Weather Overcast conditions in Geelong, but no rain to impact Geelong's scoring potential. 

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • Geelong have won 18 of their last 19 day matches at GMHBA Stadium: Geelong to win head to head @ $1.02
  • The Dockers have covered the line in each of their last 4 games at GMHBA Stadium: Fremantle to cover the +51.5 point line @ $1.92
  • The Cats have won 4 of their last 5 matches at Kardinia Park by a margin of 25+ points: Geelong to win by 25+ points @ $1.15

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Geelong to cover the -51.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: The Cats are a way better team than their position on the ladder suggests.

If they have their minds on the job, they will easily cover this line against a typically low-scoring Fremantle side. 

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