The equation is simple with only two rounds to play.
A win for Richmond will secure the minor premiership, while a loss for the Bombers will spell an end to their hopes of playing finals footy.
As unrealistic as their chances are of dethroning the Tigers at the MCG, the Dons aren't without a hope.
Essendon have won seven of their last ten and are playing fantastic and exciting footy.
There are even whispers that full forward and attacking gun Joe Daniher will make an unlikely return from injury, such is the importance of this fixture.
But no matter who the Bombers line up with, Richmond's MCG record speaks for itself.
You simply can't tip against the Tigers.
Toby Nankervis (Tigers), Matt Guelfi (Bombers)
Kane Lambert (Tigers), Orazio Fantasia (Bombers)
A slight chance of a light rain, but otherwise dry conditions for clean footy.
AFL Stats in Focus
MIDFIELD STATS rankings
Richmond
Essendon
Centre Clearances
3rd
5th
Contested Possessions
8th
11th
Inside 50s
2nd
7th
It appears that the only formula for beating the Tigers at the MCG is an absolute domination in the midfield, particularly in contested ball stats.
When the Cats came within three points of defeating the Tigers at the 'G, they were +30 in the contested possession numbers- a huge discrepancy.
But even with this domination in the scrap, Geelong still lost. And unfortunately for Essendon fans, their team don't play a contested ball-based style of footy.
Key AFL Stat
The Tigers have won 19 consecutive matches at the MCG: Richmond to win head-to-head @ $1.30
AFL Betting Tip: Richmond to win by 25+ points @ $2
Reasoning: The Tigers only look to be getting better in the lead up to finals. With Jack Reiwoldt in career-best form, expect another big score from the Richmond boys.
AFL Odds: Collingwood $1.42 (-16.5) / Port Adelaide $2.90 (+16.5)
If alarm bells weren't ringing at Port Adelaide HQ, they certainly are now.
Four losses from their past five, compounded by injuries to key talls Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder in last week's after-the-siren loss to West Coast, has the Power perilously close to missing out on finals footy.
They come up against the Pies, who have injury issues of their own.
However, Collingwood's defence will be bolstered by the return of Jeremy Howe, in what is a massive inclusion not just for this game, but their upcoming finals campaign.
After steadying the ship last week with a 31-point victory over the Lions, the Magpies will look to swoop while their opponents are in disarray.
Jeremy Howe (Collingwood, likely)
Charlie Dixon (Port), Paddy Ryder (Port), Jared Polec (Port, likely)
A high chance of showers, which could make scoring goals slightly more difficult for both sides.
Key AFL Stats
Collingwood have won 7 of their last 10 matches as a favourite by a margin of 1-39 points: Collingwood to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2
Jordan De Goey has kicked 3 or more goals in each of his last 4 games.
Port Adelaide have lost 26 of their last 31 interstate day matches as an underdog: Collingwood to win head to head @ $1.42
AFL Betting Tip: Collingwood to cover the -16.5 point line @ $1.92
Reasoning: It's hard to see Port responding after the disaster of last week. Collingwood have just been too good all year to slip up here.
Even if the Cats win both of their last two games, they are no guarantee of securing a finals berth.
But, as Chris Scott would have undoubtedly told his side, they can only go about the task in front of them, and that is getting the four points against the Dockers.
This shouldn't prove too difficult, with a Fremantle side notorious for being poor away from home set to make one of the toughest road trips in the AFL.
Down at the Cattery, Geelong are near unstoppable.
And with the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett and Co. coming up against a Nat Fyfe-less Freo midfield, the score could get really ugly in this one.
None
Rhys Stanley (Cats), Michael Walters (Dockers)
Overcast conditions in Geelong, but no rain to impact Geelong's scoring potential.
Key AFL Stats
Geelong have won 18 of their last 19 day matches at GMHBA Stadium: Geelong to win head to head @ $1.02
The Dockers have covered the line in each of their last 4 games at GMHBA Stadium: Fremantle to cover the +51.5 point line @ $1.92
The Cats have won 4 of their last 5 matches at Kardinia Park by a margin of 25+ points: Geelong to win by 25+ points @ $1.15
AFL Betting Tip: Geelong to cover the -51.5 point line @ $1.92
Reasoning: The Cats are a way better team than their position on the ladder suggests.
If they have their minds on the job, they will easily cover this line against a typically low-scoring Fremantle side.