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AscoFinish

Ascot tips and best bets 25 January 2020


Best bets in the West

Summer racing is back at Ascot this Saturday for the Australia Day long weekend.

After a week of mild weather in Perth, we have a warm 33 degrees predicted on Saturday so expect the track to be a Good 4.

The rail is out 7 metres the entire course, with winds tending Southerly-South Westerly.

With this track set-up, I'm looking for runners who settle handy to the speed. 

 

Justin's tips have yielded 4% POT over the past 365 days.

Below are his three best bets for Saturday's Ascot meet, however you can get access to all of his selections in his tipping package here

You can also receive alerts when he tips by subscribing here, so that you never miss out! 

 

Race 3 TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP 1200m (BM60+)

The speed here is expected to be slow, with Lacevinsky the only natural leader.

Lacevinsky is starting to become a little costly for punters, with only 1 win from 12 starts with 8 minors.

It's fair to say he's had some excuses in each start, so for that reason I will give him one last chance in a race that looks to set up perfectly for him.

He finds a race with very little speed, so despite the wide draw he should be able to find the top comfortably. 

With regular rider Patrick Carberry back on board, he should control the race from the front. From there he'll be able to kick away on the bend and prove very hard to catch.

Morgs Freeman is yet to put in a bad run for team Harvey. He finished very well from last on New Year's Day, on a track where it was hard to make ground. Can settle midfield here and is the each-way danger.

Baron Bostock is very competitive in these 60+ events and his first-up run last prep was a real eye catcher. If he can reproduce a similar effort, he goes very close.

City Circle enjoyed a beautiful run in transit last start, before notching a deserved win. Expect a similar run here just off the speed and she is not without some hope.

Horse Racing Tips Race 3 Tips

1st  Lacevinsky

2nd  Morgs Freeman

3rd  Baron Bostock

4th  City Circle

 

Race 4 VALE MALCOLM CLEMENTS HANDICAP 1000m (3YO 62+) 

Expect the speed here to be very fast, with the Azzopardi Siblings (Ziebell and Dew West) both vying for the top. Indian Pacific and Excellent Dream both like to race on-speed as well.

Well done to those smart shoppers who picked up the 10s available early Thursday morning for Excellent Dream!

This galloper has always had a big wrap and he finally put it together on race day, winning his maiden convincingly.

He meets a race here with very good tempo and should be able to position a pair behind the leaders and prove very hard to beat. 

Drinkwhatyoulike has always shown good ability, but her racing manners have let her down at times.

If she can settle into a good rhythm from the wide draw, she can show a good turn of foot and is not without claims. Has to be the omen bet of the day.

Indian Pacific has been faultless to date. He's led from pillar to post on both occasions this prep and has given nothing else a chance. His natural talent is undoubted, but I think he has a few things against him here at the short quote.

The rise to 60kg is a test, as is the likelihood of being contested for the lead. With the speed drawn inside him, he's likely to race wide without cover. That said, he could be too brilliant for them but I'm happy to risk this time around.  

Guesteen was disappointing on face value last week. Can land the 1-1 here and is the knockout hope.

Horse Racing Tips Race 4 Tips

1st  Excellent Dream

2nd  Drinkwhatyoulike

3rd  Indian Pacific

4th  Guesteen

 

Race 6 AMELIA PARK LODGE HANDICAP 1200m (72+)

Expect the speed to be average here, Free Trade looks the leader with Flower of War on his outside. 

Free Trade was very unlucky in the Fitzpatrick Plate, after drawing out and being no better than four wide the trip to go down by a neck.

Meets an easier field here, in a race where he will find the front. He's a horse with good ability and should just be too good for the rest of this field.

Flower of War is quietly going through the grades and is building an impressive record. She rises to open company 72+ grade for the first time here and she should acquit herself very well. 

Yeah Dardy has had his share of issues, but has always shown ability. He raced wide without cover last start, but still stuck on very well. Looks a good chance of landing the 1-1 here and can run a nice race.  

Festival Miss never saw daylight in the straight first-up and was untested all the way to the line. She'll be back in the field from the inside draw and will need Pike to weave some magic. Expect her to be hitting the line very well. 

Horse Racing Tips Race 6 Tips

1st  Free Trade

2nd  Flower Of War

3rd  Yeah Dardy

4th  Festival Miss

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