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  • 23:23:32 AEST
  • Wednesday, 14 November 2018
Flemington Turn

Melbourne Cup Tips 2018: What they're saying about your horse


The inside word on every Cup runner

Australia's most prestigous thoroughbred race has come around again and it looks likely to be a wet one. 

With heavy rain forecast to hit Melbourne on Tuesday and the unknown factor hovering over many of the foreign invaders, punters would be forgiven for feeling bewildered when looking at the form.

To help you make an informed betting decision, we've put together the most insightful comments from connections  of every runner in this year's Cup.

 

Best Solution  1. Best Solution (6)

Connection's Comments

“The Caulfield Cup didn’t take a lot out of him. He is fresh. We are going to the Melbourne Cup with a horse that is healthy and sound… In the past we have brought some horses that haven’t stayed sound. This horse he is happy and sound… He is mile-and-a-half horse and a three-time group 1 winner and has won his past four. You need to have speed and class for the Melbourne Cup and that is what he has.” - Seed Bin Suroor (Trainer)

Source: The Age

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2435m (1st at Meydan Turf - 15/2/18)
  • Has won his last 3 races – all at Group 1 level
  • Jockey / Horse 12: 7-0-1

 

Our Say

2018 Caulfield Cup winner who’s getting better with every run.

He’s won five of his eight starts this year, but there’s three big concerns for him;

  1. The strength of this year’s Caulfield Cup (around 50L slower than the Caulfield 2400m record)
  2. Top weight, Makybe Diva (2005) being the only horse since Think Big (1975) to carry more than 57kg to Cup victory
  3. He's unknown past 2400m.

Won’t finish top 4.

 

The Cliffsofmoher 2. The Cliffsofmoher (9)

Connection's Comments

“The Cliffsofmoher has the better draw and that will bring him into it a little bit better. The Cliffsofmoher is the form horse. He’s placed in five Group Ones this year. The only change we’ve made is a different jockey. Ryan (Moore) knows him well and hopefully he can get the best out of him.” - Aiden O'Brien (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com 

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2433m (2nd Epsom Derby Grp 1 - 3/6/17) 
  • Group 1: 11: 0-2-2
  • Third Up: 2: 0-1-0

 

Our Say

His two Australia starts have been very promising and he comes from the Williams camp.

The distance and his racing manners present the biggest concerns.

Expect him to finish outside the top 4 but within the top 10.

 

Magic Circle 3. Magic Circle (17)

Connection's Comments

"To be fair, he looks magnificent and certainly better than when he left home… He's not left a bean since he turned up, he's drunk well, he's eaten well and everything has gone according to plan. The final piece of the jigsaw for us was Corey (Brown) riding him and liking him and he did that. He had a second sit on him earlier in the week and I think he understands the horse and has maybe got to know what his strengths are." - Ian Williams (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Distance (3200m-3300m) 5 starts for 4 wins
  • First up 7: 4-1-0
  • Group 1 debut

 

Our Say

He’s won his last two starts by a collective margin of 12 lengths.

His racing style has included an impressive sprint at the end of his recent victories which suggests Flemington will suit him to a 'T'.

He hasn’t raced since May, but has an impressive first up record (7: 4-1-0) so that shouldn’t be an issue.

The lack of Group 1 racing would be his only concern. Goes on top.

 

Chestnut Coat 4. Chestnut Coat (4)

Connection's Comments

“He went ok for the first half of the race (Caulfield Cup) but he probably needed the run and will be better next start.” - Yuga Kawada (Jockey) 

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Distance 1: 0-0-0
  • Group races 4: 0-1-0
  • 2nd up 4: 1-1-0

 

Our Say

His run in this year’s Tenno Sho 3200m was a great effort after making a sustained run a long way out.

Won’t mind a dry track either (Firm 12: 2-5-1).

The concern with him has to be his Caulfield Cup run where he did nothing, finishing 10.4L behind the winner.

Could surprise a few and finish top 10.

 

Muntahaa 5. Muntahaa (13)

Connection's Comments

"John Gosden is just an unbelievable trainer and he decided to start again with him and take him back to square one. That’s why we saw him win the Ebor the way he did. He’s a strong traveller and in the Ebor he was the last horse off the bridle. At the furlong (200m) pole, everybody was pushing away and he was just sitting there and I pressed the button." - Jim Crowley  (Jockey)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2917m (4th St Ledger Grp 1 – 10/9/16)
  • Won the 2018 Ebor Handicap (2800m) by 3L
  • First up 4: 1-0-2 

 

Our Say

Was tremendous winning the Ebor Handicap in a quick time last start, which has been a good form reference (Heartbreak City in 2016).

The distance is some query but with form around 2800-2900m, the extra few hundred metres shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

If he can replicate his Ebor run, look for him to finish top 3.

 

Sound Check 6. Sound Check (16)

Connection's Comments

"I think the horse is going into the race as good as he can - he was good on the course in the jump out the other day and if can take a sit I’ll be happy but he’s got enough speed to lead if it happened that way… I’m going there to ride the horse and not the race.” - Jordan Childs (Jockey)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Distance 1: 1-0-0
  • Group races 8: 1-1-1
  • Last 10 starts 10: 4-2-1

 

Our Say

Inconclusive Caulfield Cup run.

He's had five runs at 2800m plus, with three wins and a second.

The German form leading into the cup has been solid in previous years and he looks like the best roughie for this year’s Cup.

 

Who Shot Thebarman 7. Who Shot Thebarman (18)

Connection's Comments

“We’ll be going to the races pretty proudly. He knows what to do. There won’t be too many nerves with the Barman come Tuesday at 3 o’clock." - Chris Waller (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Previous Melbourne Cup Results: 3rd in 2014, 11th in 2015 and 5th in 2016
  • Distance: 9: 2-2-1

 

Our Say

Fourth Melbourne Cup start and won the G1 Sydney Cup earlier this year.

I hope he goes well to cap off an amazing career.

Fingers crossed he finishes in the top 10.

 

Ace High 8. Ace High (22)

Connection's Comments

“I’ve put a line through the Caulfield Cup. It was just one of those days… His blood is back to normal and he will appreciate the big Flemington track like he did last year in the Derby… He should be a $26 chance not $71 so I’m hoping he can return to his best and I have no doubts about the 3200 metres” - David Payne (Trainer)

Source: Bloodstock.com.au

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2500m (1st Vic Derby Grp 1 – 4/11/17)
  • Group 1’s: 9: 2-1-0

 

Our Say

Won the Victoria Derby by 2L and was unlucky not to win the ATC Derby.

He pulled up with a poor recovery after the Caulfield Cup and with that excuse, might get some punters back on board.

Too much of gamble after a bad lead up race.

 

Marmelo9. Marmelo (10)

Connection's Comments

“I think we learned that we want a fresh horse. He's not a horse I think who is designed particularly for Australian surfaces. He runs very well on firm ground but he's not the sort of horse you can keep running back-to-back like a lot of horses do over here. We planned the whole year around having a good break after the Kergorlay at Deauville in August and going straight into the race. We came out here later and I think he's looking better than he did last year… We've got a Group Two horse running in a Group One race handicapped as a Group Two horse… I think our expectations are running a decent race and finishing fourth or fifth and going home happy” - Hughie Morrison (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Previous Melbourne Cup result: 9th in 2017
  • 7 starts at 3000m plus for 2 wins and 4 places 

 

Our Say

He was poor in last year's Melbourne Cup but his run in transit wasn’t pretty.

His form around Vazirabad reads very well for this.

The horse who beat him last start (Holdthasigreen) has since won a Group 1 in France (3000m).

Has drawn well and it sounds like last year is a forget run. Top 5 chance.

 

Avilius10. Avilius (11)

Connection's Comments

"The reality with the Melbourne Cup is no two of them are the same… There are years when brilliant horses are suited and there are years when tough grinding dour stayers are suited… His preparation has been geared for what he is and that's a brilliant stayer. He came from many, many lengths off them in The Bart Cummings in his first time at Flemington with a heavy impost… You've seen the blistering sectionals he can run first-up over a mile. Now he's just built towards the Cup beautifully." - Mike Moroney (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2500m (1st Bart Cummings Grp 3 – 6/10/18)
  • Had 4 wins from 5 starts since coming to Australia

 

Our Say

The Bart Cummings’ theory of needing 10,000m in their legs has been used by his Grandson, James.

He’s been flying since coming to Australia with four excellent wins.

The concern is his experience and whether this race has come too soon for him.

However, if you can trust the Cummings’ camp and their tried and tested methods, then he’ll be very competitive on Tuesday.

 

Yucatan 11. Yucatan (23)

Connection's Comments

"I think barriers are overrated. It doesn't worry me at all. There’s a 1000m run to the first turn to work it out. We’ll have a look at the race over the next few days and work out a plan… It's not concerning me at all. To be honest I would have been more concerned if he drew one… He's flying. I can't think of a time when we have taken a horse in better condition to the races. If he stays in that form for the next two days, he will put on a real show." - Nick Williams (Owner)

Source: Herald Sun

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2419m (6th in Coronation Cup Grp 1 – 1/6/18)
  • Group races 10: 2-3-3

 

Our Say

His Herbert Power (2400m) run was huge – the time was slick and was eased down a long way out.

The other big plus is he’s coming out of the Williams camp and over the past 10 years, they’ve been incredible with their record in the cup.

There is a slight concern with him mixing his form in Ireland but from all reports he’s only got better since his last run.

Will be fighting out the finish.

 

Auvray 12. Auvray (1)

Connection's Comments

“Win, lose or draw I'm proud to have taken Auvray from the out-house to a Melbourne Cup. It's hard to do in Australia now.” - Richard Freedman (trainer)

Source: Twitter

 

The Facts

  • Distance 2: 0-0-0
  • Group 1’s: 6: 0-0-0

 

Our Say

Not good enough.

 

Finche 13. Finche (15)

Connection's Comments

No comments available.

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2500m (1st Prix De Reux Grp3 – 5/8/18)
  • Group races: 7: 2-0-2

 

Our Say

His Geelong Cup run wasn’t too bad and he drops 5kgs here.

Concerns are his unknown ability to run past 2500m and the form coming out of the Geelong Cup this year.

Top half of the field but won’t trouble the scorers.

 

Red Cardinal14. Red Cardinal (5)

Connection's Comments

“I am also going to put blinkers on Red Cardinal. It’s probably more hoping than anything else at the moment, you’d like them to see them going a bit better form wise into the race but they have earned their chance to be there.” - Darren Weir (trainer)

Source: Racenet.com

 

The Facts

  • Previous Melbourne Cup Result: 11th in 2017
  • Distance: 3: 2-0-0

 

Our Say

Has won 2 from 3 over this distance but finished 11th last year.

Can’t see him getting any closer this year.  

 

Vangeur Masque 15. Vengeur Masque (2)

Connection's Comments

"I thought he could run top five without any worries… Each Cup is different but if he gets luck in running I'm sure he's good enough." - Mike Moroney (Trainer)

Source: Herald Sun

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2917m (5th St Ledger Grp1 – 12/9/15)
  • Group 1’s: 3: 0-0-0
  • Track 6: 1-2-0

 

Our Say

Hasn't done anything in his 6 runs this year. Not good enough.

 

Ventura Storm 16. Ventura Storm (7)

Connection's Comments

“He’s a gelding now, he’s had a wind operation and we’ve worked him out now… I’m sure there’s plenty of good staying races in him.” - David Hayes (trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Previous Melbourne Cup Result: 21st in 2018
  • Group 1’s: 14: 1-2-1

 

Our Say

Won the Moonee Valley Cup but his opposition were pretty average. Might finish top half at best.

 

A Prince Of Arran 17. A Prince Of Arran (20)

Connection's Comments

“Would like to have been a little further in, but it's a long race you have plenty of time… We will sit behind the leaders and then pop out and go and win… He will be wrapped up in cotton wool, we won't sit on him for two days, we will freshen him up and come Tuesday hopefully he will be ready to go.” - Charlie Fellowes (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Distance 6: 1-1-1
  • Third up 4: 0-1-0

 

Our Say

His run in the Lexus was impressive, drops 4.5kgs and has won at the distance.

Biggest concern is the ability of the Lexus winners to back up 3 days later and if you look through his form, his shortest gap between runs prior to this was 2 weeks.

Goes in the multiples but hard to tip with confidence given the short turnaround.

 

Nakeeta18. Nakeeta (3)

Connection's Comments

No comments available.

 

The Facts

  • Previous Melbourne Cup Result: 5th in 2017
  • Distance 2: 0-1-0 
  • Only raced in 2 Group races from 38 starts

 

Our Say

Last year was a fluke. Not good enough.

 

Sir Charles Road 19. Sir Charles Road (14)

Connection's Comments

(Following his Bendigo run) “Ran really well. We switched him off a little more today. He's probably been a run behind all preparation so he'll take good improvement going into Tuesday.” - Dwayne Dunn (Jockey)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • Distance 2: 0-0-1
  • Wet 13: 3-3-1

 

Our Say

He ran well over this trip in the Sydney Cup earlier this year but this is a huge step-up from the quality he met in that race.

Consistent horse but not up to these.

 

Zacada 20. Zacada (24)

No comments available.

 

The Facts

  • Distance 2: 0-1-0
  • Group races: 12: 1-1-1

 

Our Say

Hasn't done a thing in his 4 runs since his surprise 2nd in the Sydney Cup (3200m). No.

 

Runaway 21. Runaway (12)

Connection's Comments

“It was his first prep, basically he’s done a great job. He’s the kind of horse you’d like to have in your stable and there’s a big future for him… We’re really happy with him going into the Cup…  He’ll be a 33-1 pop, 25-1 pop, but he’ll give them a great run for their money, both owners and the punters” - Gai Waterhouse (Trainer)

Source: The Age

 

The Facts

  • Distance 1: 0-0-0
  • Jockey / Horse 8: 3-0-2

 

Our Say

Unless they walk and he gets a perfect run in front, I think he’ll be gone by the time they hit the straight.

 

Youngster 22. Youngstar (8)

Connection's Comments

“She is probably the strongest chance from an Australasian-bred horse so she carries a lot of weight on her shoulders… It was good to get a feel for her today, even though she was really wanting to get on with her work and get it over and done with… It is a big advantage for me because this is our backyard… We can ride this track blindfolded.” - Craig Williams (Jockey)

Source: Herald Sun

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2400m (7th Caulfield Cup Grp1 – 20/10/18)
  • Group 1’s: 4: 1-1-1

 

Our Say

She ran on well in the Caulfield Cup after a luckless run and has no weight on her back for this.

The obvious queries are the distance and whether she’s ready for a tough Group 1 against the internationals, given she's only a four-year-old.

Hopefully a top 10 finish. 

 

Cross Counter 23. Cross Counter (19)

Connection's Comments

“He came down here a really fit horse… Obviously you're coming into the biggest race of his career and you don't really want that kind of issue, but at least it happened three weeks out and not 10 days from the race. So there was enough time to let it heal and he has not missed too much work… Kerrin McEvoy rode him last Wednesday and was nothing but positive getting off the horse” - Charlie Appleby (Trainer)

Source: WWOS

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2414m (1st Gordon Stakes Grp3 – 4/8/18)
  • Career: 7: 4-2-0

 

Our Say

Comes here with some awesome European form, including a huge win by 4.5L in the Voltigeur Stakes at York over 2400m.

The concerns for him include his inexperience with only 7 career starts, and unfortunately he had a setback in training and was forced to sit out a few gallops at Werribee.

With the setback I can’t have him in my top 3 but it wouldn’t surprise if he ran a big race.

 

Rostropovich 24. Rostropovich (21)

Connection's Comments

“He was a horse that we always thought would stay forward in a mile and a half… He seems to be on a lovely weight. When he went down we felt we needed to give him a run to sharpen him up and that’s why we ran him at Moonee Valley (Cox Plate) over a mile and a quarter…. Ryan (Moore), who rode him there, was very happy with him and felt that obviously going further would suit him. Wayne (Lordan) is going down to ride him. He is just perfect in on the bottom (weight).” - Aidan O’Brien (Trainer)

Source: Racing.com

 

The Facts

  • First go at 3200m. Longest race distance to date is 2414m (1st Club Stakes Grp3 – 15/9/18)
  • Group 1’s: 5: 0-1-1 
  • 2nd up 2: 2-0-0

 

Our Say

Has a similar profile to last year’s winner – Rekindling.

His Cox Plate run was solid without being amazing but that was the intention of his camp to get him switched on for Tuesday.

The distance is his biggest concern with no form past 2400m.

With the light weight / trainer combo, he’s one for the multiples.

 

Horse Racing Tips Best Tips

1st   Magic Circle

2nd  Yucatan

3rd   Muntahaa

 

Best Roughie: Sound Check 

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