This week’s Lay selections focus on two runners that both carry a significant “boom” and are well exposed in terms of their public profile.
In Sydney a Godolphin rising star will attract plenty of recreational money, however I expect the pro teams to oppose her late.
Whilst at Eagle Farm, I am against one who I expect to be ridden cautiously due to a bigger prize awaiting in her “Grand Final” target event in January.
Both are likely to have their prices compressed due to their high profile. Avoid.
Randwick Race 6 #1 Tailleur $2.50
Looks ultra-talented following the huge 6 length Moonee Valley win and as a result, the price on offer here is likely to be heavily compressed/overbet.
For this assignment, she steps up to Benchmark 88 level for the first time in what is a competitive Sydney Saturday grade race. This is no easy feat for any horse on the rise.
Although she does have the perfect fresh record (2:2-0-0), that success has been over 1100m and I suspect that the 16 week break will be against her here over the 1200m. If they run along, she is a chance of weakening late with a lack of race fitness.
Given she's racing in the Godolphin blue, the mare will certainly have her admirers and the recreational money will be strong.
However, I expect the pro syndicates to take her on late and a market drift would not surprise inside the last minute of betting. Lay.
Eagle Farm Race 6 #1 Fake Love $3.90
Key Magic Millions hope Fake Love is having her QLD warm-up run in this clash and from a barrier 13, I doubt they will be out to break any records.
The Grand Final is still some weeks away and there is a big risk here that their intent is simply not as urgent as it'll need to be from the wide draw. I suspect that they may even ride her cold.
There is plenty of speed drawn to her inside and these horses won’t be giving up the coveted rails/on-pace positions cheaply.
The high-profile of the horse is also a factor.
Ever since her debut victory at Caulfield, she has been spruiked as the Ciaron Maher/Eustace stable’s best two-year-old. This will artificially compress the price.
Wait until she is racing for the big money in the Grand Final, where more intent will be shown. Avoid.
Dec 11, 2020 09:11 PM
AAP
