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Ascot tips and best bets 29 February 2020


Best bets in the West

The racing season heats up at Ascot this weekend, as we build toward the three-year-old feature races.   

With storms in Perth this week, we are likely to get a rare soft track meeting.

The rail is out 5m the entire for Saturday and the forecast is for 26 degrees and sunny with only light winds.

At this set-up, I'm expecting the track to play fair this weekend.

 

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Race 4 AMELIA PARK HANDICAP 1100m 62+

The speed in this race is expected to be good, with M'Lady taking the lead. Boyish likes to race handy, as does Round the Point and Truth and Lies.

Sherpa Lass was well supported first-up and was an effortless winner. That was a weak race, but this isn't that much harder. 

She should be able to stalk the speed three-pairs back, be presented at the top of the straight and prove too strong for these.

Bedouin Belle is ultra-consistent and usually goes around at a good price. She will get back in the field, but could make her run with Sherpa Lass. One for the each-way punters.

Truth and Lies was a strong winner four runs back and ran a bottler last start in a harder race. She is currently mixing her form, but should get an identical race to when she won and the engagement of Mitchell Pateman is a good one. The stable is in good form, fresh off their first city double on Wednesday.

Devoted Star has talent from the cerise and white army, but will get a long way out of his ground and be running on well.

Horse Racing Tips Race 4 Tips

1st  Sherpa Lass

2nd  Bedouin Belle

3rd  Truth and Lies

4th  Devoted Star

 

Race 6 KIRIN MEGUMI HANDICAP 1200m 66+

Expect a fast run race here, with Some Sort leading. Catherine Wheel and Illustrious Tycoon will sit handy.

Catherine Wheel hasn't put a foot wrong this prep and the form lines around her are very strong. 

She was unlucky not to win last start when held up at the crucial stage and checking off heels. Outside of Some Sort, there is not a lot of speed here so she can go forward with ease.

With a soft run in transit, she shouldn't be losing. 

Some Sort led at a fast tempo first-up, but really didn't have any excuses for the poor performance. He has strong early three-year-old form and if you like this horse from the Durrant camp, you can't write him off just yet.

Drops in grade, gets a soft run in the lead and is the one to catch.

Captivated Point has recently struck leader bias tracks at Albany and comes to town off the back of some nice runs. Should find a nice trailing spot on the rail and run home well.

I can't see Illustrious Tycoon living up to the hype of his early career runs, but can run well here.  

Horse Racing Tips Race 6 Tips

1st  Catherine Wheel

2nd  Some Sort

3rd  Captivated Point

4th  Illustrious Tycoon

 

Race 8 SCHWEPPES-ASCOT 1000 GUINEAS 1800m Listed 3YO

The speed here is expected to be slow, with Londsdale Lady leading and Kentucky Love and Dark Mission sitting handy.

Tuscan Queen dropped out the back first-up and worked home well off a hot speed. From a far better draw today and slower tempo, she should be able to settle midfield and enjoy a sweet trip.

Gets blinkers-on for the first time, steps out to 1800m and clearly rates on top coming off a strong three-year-old campaign.

Kentucky Love should be able to find a handy spot comfortably. Was strong to the line last start and from the slow tempo, expect her to be there for a long way. 

Naughty By Nature was a nice run behind Superstorm, but maps for a far different run here and looks likely to be three-wide or at the rear.  She does have talent, but it doesn't look the right race for her. She is one to follow moving forward however. 

Samantha's Twitch looks a promising stayer and will enjoy the races the longer they get. Will get back in the field but will be hitting the line well. 

Horse Racing Tips Race 8 Tips

1st  Tuscan Queen

2nd  Kentucky Love

3rd  Naughty By Nature

4th  Samantha's Twitch

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