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Author: Alex Christodoulou
Mar 23, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
Your AFL betting guide for Round 1
This traditional season opener sees last year’s premiers Richmond face up against the young talent of Carlton at the G. While Blues’ coach Brendon Bolton will be sure to have his youthful squad ready to fire, the question will be if Richmond can carry their late-season dominance of 2017 into the new season. While a sluggish start is on the cards, expect Richmond to have the quality to scrape over the line.
Key AFL Stats
- Richmond has won its last six encounters with Carlton.
- Seven of the last nine night matches between the Tigers and the Blues have gone OVER the total match points line.
- The Blues won both of their pre-season games in the JLT Community Series.
Suggested bet: Carlton with the line (+29.5) @ $1.92
The re-emerging quality of Essendon, host last year’s runners-up in what is expected to be a high-scoring blockbuster on Friday night. Neither team is short of motivation. The Bombers will be looking to put the supplements-scandal era well behind them, while the Crows will be desperate to return to the winner’s circle after the heartache of the 2017 Grand Final. New Adelaide recruit Bryce Gibbs may prove the difference.
Key AFL Stats
- Adelaide has won each of its last four encounters with Essendon by a margin of 40+ points.
- Each of Adelaide’s last eight Round 1 matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Essendon have averaged 107 points scored in their last five matches at Etihad Stadium.
Suggested bet: Total match points over 197.5 @ 1.90
The Lions will be looking to start their season on a positive note after their woeful wooden spoon-winning 2017. However, the Saints too will be desperate in a game that would already have been pencilled in as an easy 4 points. These are the games that the Saints must win if they have any chance of making the finals this year.
Key AFL Stats
- Brisbane have only won 4 away games in the last 3 seasons.
- Both the Lions and the Saints lost both of their pre-season games
- St Kilda have only won one of their past 7 Round 1 fixtures, which came back in 2014.
Suggested bet: St Kilda to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25
In a busy off-season for the Power, they recruited three quality players for their tilt at the flag this year. The question will be if Tom Rockliff, Steve Motlop and Jack Watts can immediately find their feet at their new club, or whether they will need a few games to settle in. Fremantle meanwhile were similarly busy, bringing in Brandon Matera and the booming boot of Nathan Wilson. Expect Port to be too strong at home.
Key AFL Stats
- Fremantle have a 1-4 (20%) win record at the Adelaide Oval from 2015 onwards.
- Port won 6 of their last 7 home games at the Adelaide Oval in the 2017 home and away season.
- Tom Rockliff has been the first goal-kicker in three of his last four Round 1 day matches.
Suggested bet: Port Adelaide to cover the line (-26.5) @ 1.92
With both teams expected to fight it out for the wooden spoon this year, this Round 1 fixture in Cairns will give an early indication of the favourite to take out the least coveted prize in footy. Without Gary Ablett, new coach Stuart Dew will need to bring bags of energy and inspire his team (who are not short on talent) to have a good year. The Kangaroos meanwhile failed to bring in any fresh blood in the offseason and look too old and slow to cut it in the AFL.
Key AFL Stats
- The Kangas’ Ben Brown has been the first goal-kicker in the past two meetings between these clubs.
- The Suns won both of their pre-season games, including an impressive 56-point thrashing of the Cats.
- In the last meeting between the two teams, the Suns won by 19 points at Metricon Stadium.
Suggested bet: Head-to-Head – Gold Coast @ $1.90
This heated rivalry-game will be the highlight of Saturday night, with a big crowd expected at the MCG to see two teams try to rip into each other. With Hawthorn’s dominance in the last decade surely coming to an end, this is the chance for Collingwood to follow in Richmond’s footsteps last year and become the latest Melbourne club to win the flag. Coach Nathan Buckley will be desperate to start the season on the right foot and avoid early pressure being put on his position.
Key AFL Stats
- The Hawks have won 10 of their last 11 meetings against the Magpies
- Collingwood beat the Hawks by 18 points at the MCG in Round 9 last year.
- Taylor Adams has recorded 30+ disposals in four of Collingwood’s last five night matches.
Suggested bet: Head-to-Head – Collingwood @ $1.98
The so-called ‘Western Derby’ will see its latest instalment take place this Sunday when the Giants host the Bulldogs in the nation’s capital. A match between the 2016 premiers with one of the favourites to take out the flag this year promises to be an exciting encounter. With some of the most sought-after players in the competition including Josh Kelly and Jeremy Cameron, the Giants will be looking to flex their muscles and start their season with a bang.
Key AFL Stats
- The Giants have won three of the last four encounters between these two sides.
- GWS have triumphed in their past 6 games at Manuka Oval, notching up an average winning margin of 43 points.
- The Bulldogs have won their past three Round 1 clashes.
Suggested bet: GWS to cover the line (-17.5) @ 1.92
One of the most anticipated games of the opening round sees the up-and-coming Melbourne squad face the midfield prowess of Geelong. All eyes will be on Gary Ablett as he dons the navy blue and white hoops for the first time in an AFL match since departing the club at the end of 2010. The prodigal son will bring much joy to the Geelong faithful simply by being back at Kardinia Park, let alone if he puts in a good performance. Melbourne meanwhile will be looking to outrun the ageing Cats line-up and get their season off to a flying start.
Key AFL Stats:
- The Cats have won four out of their last five Round 1 clashes.
- The Demons won both of their preseason games, while Geelong lost both of theirs.
- Melbourne has an 11-7 (61.1%) W/L record as a home team in day matches in the past two seasons.
Suggested bet: Head-to-Head – Melbourne @ 1.90
The last game of the round sees the Swans travel to the recently completed Perth Stadium, which will serve as the new home ground for both Western Australian teams this year. Sydney will be looking to rectify the horror start they had to the 2017 season, where they lost their opening six games. After an ordinary transfer period, the Eagles will be desperate to ensure that the first game at their new home isn’t a blowout, which would set an ugly tone for the rest of the year.
Key AFL Stats
- Sydney has an 11-4 (73.3%) W/L record as an away team in day matches from 2015 onwards.
- West Coast won the last encounter between the sides, with a 26-point victory at Domain Stadium in Round 4 last year.
- The Swans won 13 of their last 14 home-and-away games in the 2017 season.
Suggested bet: Sydney to cover the line (-17.5) @ $1.92