Analyst: James Beeson
Mar 14, 2019 01:00 PM
Melbourne raiders attack Sydney
||Comin' Through ($5)
This year's edition of the Ajax Stakes has attracted a healthy number of Melbourne horses, who could benefit from a change in scenery. This is a tactic that can often switch them on.
The Melbourne form does look stronger on this occasion and I am happy to be with one that has excellent Group 1 credentials and should account for these on class alone.
This is race where betting will provide an excellent guide, as a number of stable entries are accustomed to a well planned plunge.
Watch late betting activity closely.
Rosehill Track Traits
Rosehill is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and showers predicted for Saturday.
Sydney has been drenched during the week with heavy rain on Thursday, which is likely to ensure we race on a rain-affected surface.
If the inside chops out, look for the outside draws to hold a slight advantage as jockeys angle wider to the better ground.
The early races will be an excellent guide to determine the presence of any track bias.
Racing Market Movers
All the leading hopes remain steady in early betting, whilst Widgee Turf is a slight drifter ($8.50 to $10).
#1 Land Of Plenty $4.20
Has been competing well at mainly Group 1 level all throughout this prep, without winning.
This looks much easier than what he has taken on at his past two starts and with the class relief, expect him to be in the finish.
Maps well from gate 7, where the rider can find an ideal position midfield and in the moving line. From there, he will be charging through the line.
A Sydney run could really switch him on. Yes.
#2 Dreamforce $6.50
Is now rock hard fit and can progress again in this stronger grade.
He was brilliant winning the Liverpool City Cup, when he kicked away strongly off the front after riding the speed.
Although drawn wide here in gate 11, he is still the likely leader and can control it with little pressure present elsewhere.
Gets on pace favours and must be considered a top hope.
#3 Fifty Stars $4.80
Was dominant in the Blamey Stakes when rushing past them all to win in fine style, further strengthening his impeccable third-up record (3:3-0-0).
Fourth-up is also good and it appears this part of the prep is his sweet spot.
Whilst he strikes a stronger field here, with any luck he will be in the finish somewhere. Yes.
#4 Widgee Turf $8.50 > $10
Was heavily backed at Flemington two starts back when placing, before jumping odds-on at Wangaratta and just missing again.
The stable have a huge opinion of the horse and you have to respect them if they are willing to travel for this.
Looks outclassed here, however could easily surprise. Watch betting late.
#7 Kaonic $14
Has a good second-up record (3:2-1-0) and will be expected to fire here.
Just feel he is a touch below his best now and on the way down from the peak performances of past preparations.
Happy to bet around. No.
#9 Fierce Impact $12
Warrants a very close watch in betting and could be the smoky of the day that creeps up on everyone.
Showed he has ability last time in, when he was often tipped by the shrewd punters.
Include in all exotics and if the money comes hard, follow it.
#11 Seaway $6.50
Loves Rosehill and the 1500m distance (2:2-0-0), where he has won his first two this prep.
Third-up is also unblemished (2:2-0-0) and I'm struggling to find any knock on him at all.
He has placed at Group 2 level previously, which shows that he's comfortable in this grade.
If he gets the right run just in behind, he will be a contender.
#14 Dyslexic $13
The Guy Walter Stakes run was ok last time out when finishing 4 of 10.
However, he appears to be well below most of these on class.
Looking to others. No.
Of The Others
#5 Violate must be considered a chance and punters should always pay close attention to Brent Stanley runners who seem to bob up everywhere at odds.
The horse is flying and he would only travel to Sydney if he's a genuine winning hope. Watch betting late.
Best Racing Tips
1st Land Of Plenty
2nd Fifty Stars
4th Fierce Impact