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  • 15:39:19 AEST
  • Friday, 18 January 2019
Melbourne Demons 120418

AFL Betting Preview Round 4


What are the key stats for this weekend?

Adelaide v Collingwood

The opening game of the round sees the injury-ravaged Magpies travel to Adelaide in what is arguably the toughest road trip in the competition. Fresh off two comfortable wins, the Crows are flying high, and look to have the firepower to get the job done. But don't write off the Pies who have been valiant in their three games so far. They notched up their first win of the season against fierce rivals Carlton last week, and will be looking to go back-to-back. 

Key AFL Stats 

  • The Magpies have covered the line in 14 of their last 17 matches as underdog.
  • The Crows have won 6 of their last 7 matches at the Adelaide Oval.
  • Each of the Magpies' previous four matches at the Adelaide Oval have gone UNDER the total match points line.

Suggested bet: Collingwood to cover the line (+31.5) @ $1.92

 

GWS v Fremantle

After two big wins, the Giants were stopped in their path by a tough Swans outfit at the SCG in Round 3. However, back at Manuka Oval where they have been dominating in recent times and up against Fremantle, who are no Sydney Swans, the Giants should be booting goals for fun. Fremantle are also coming into this game having won two and lost one. But they will need to drastically improve if they have any chance of beating the Giants. 

Key AFL Stats

  • Fremantle have lost 6 of their last 7 day matches.
  • Jeremy Cameron has kicked 3 or more goals in each of GWS's last 4 regular season games.
  • The Giants have won their last 7 AFL matches at Manuka Oval by an average margin of 48 points.

Suggested bet: GWS to win by a margin of 40+ @ $2.00.

 

Richmond v Brisbane

Still looking for their first win of the season, the Lions face another tricky task in their clash with last year's premiers at the MCG. Despite being unfancied in the market, Brisbane put in a huge performance against premiership contenders Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval last week, only losing by less than a goal. Although the Tigers seem to be playing with the same intensity that won them the flag, there's a chance that their high-pressure footy will slip against the Lions, who by no means are a pushover. 

Key AFL Stats

  • Richmond has won 9 consecutive matches at the MCG.
  • The away team has covered the line in each of the last nine matches between these two teams.
  • The Lions have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the AFL. 

Suggested bet: Richmond to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.50 

 

Western Bulldogs v Sydney

In one of the more interesting games of the round, the Swans fly down to Melbourne to take on the Bulldogs. After getting flogged in their opening two games, the Bulldogs found some of their 2016 tenacity, outmuscling and outworking a highly-fancied Essendon outfit in the upset of the round. Midfield players Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae really showed what they are capable of in the win, but will face a much sterner task against the Swans' midfield bulls. Sydney are always consistently good, so the outcome will depend on whether we get the Bulldogs from weeks 1 and 2, or the Bulldogs from last round. 

Key AFL Stats

  • Sydney have covered the line when favourites in every match at Etihad Stadium from 2015 onwards. 
  • The Bulldogs have won 4 of their last 5 encounters with the Swans.
  • Sydney rank 3rd for contested possessions this year with 477, while the Bulldogs are last with 353.

Suggested bet: Sydney to cover the line (-17.5) @ $1.92

 

North Melbourne v Carlton

This all-Melbourne affair will be hotly contested in Tasmania, with the Kangaroos taking their first home game of the year to Blundstone Arena, where they have a solid record. With conditions forecast to be chilly, windy and wet, expect this game to be a tight, low-scoring scrap between two teams looking to avoid the wooden spoon. While the Kangas have been hot and cold this season, the Blues have only looked lukewarm at best, and will need to show something more to record their first win of the campaign.  

Key AFL Stats

  • North Melbourne have won their last 3 clashes with Carlton.
  • The Kangaroos have won 6 of their last 8 games at Blundstone Arena.
  • While the Blues are only ranked 14th in total tackles this year (171), the Kangas are ranked 2nd (215).

Suggested bet: North Melbourne to win into total points under 178.5 @ $2.95 

 

West Coast v Gold Coast

There have been many similarities between West Coast and Gold Coast this year. Both expected to have a poor start to the season, yet heading into this game having won twice and lost once; both starting the season without their star player (Gary Ablett to Geelong, Josh Kennedy injured); and both set to play at Perth Stadium for the second consecutive week. After coming out on top in a seesawing clash with the Cats, West Coast look to be too strong for the talented Suns outfit.

Key AFL Stats

  • The Suns 3-point win over the Eagles in round 11 last year was the only time Gold Coast have ever defeated West Coast.
  • West Coast has a 14-1 W/L record as a home team, coming off 5 days rest since 2015.
  • Gold Coast has covered the line twice in their last 9 night matches when playing interstate. 

Suggested bet: West Coast to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.30 

 

Essendon v Port Adelaide

The early game on Sunday will be an intriguing affair, with two attack-minded teams going head-to-head in what's sure to be a goal-fest. After looking like a top-four team with an opening round victory over the Crows, the Bombers have been flat, and need to make a statement at home to get their season back on track. The Power meanwhile only just scraped over the line against a gallant Brisbane team last week, and will be looking to reproduce the form that saw them smashing the Swans at the SCG in Round 2. 

Key AFL Stats 

  • Port Adelaide has a 12-6 W/L record playing interstate as favourite from 2015 onwards.
  • Essendon have won 5 of their last 7 home matches at Etihad Stadium.
  • The winning margin between these two sides in the last 2 games has been by 60 points or more.

Suggested bet: Head-to-Head - Essendon @ $2.29

 

Hawthorn v Melbourne

With both teams looking to notch up their third win from four games, expect this to be a high-class encounter between the speedy and dynamic talent of Melbourne with the composed and skillful Hawthorn. The Demons are fresh off a hoodoo-breaking win over North Melbourne, having recorded their first victory over the Kangas since 2006, which would surely lift a giant weight off their young shoulders, and allow them to play with more freedom and confidence in this clash. But you can never discount Hawthorn, who just continue to perform under the coaching expertise of Alastair Clarkson.

Key AFL Stats

  • Hawthorn has a 14-9 W/L record in day matches at the MCG from 2015 onwards.
  • Melbourne has a 5-14 line record as a favourite at the MCG from 2015 onwards.
  • The Demons have recorded the second most contested possessions this year with 484, while the Hawks are ranked 9th with 442. 

Suggested bet: Head-to-Head - Melbourne @ $1.70

 

Geelong v St Kilda

For the third week in a row, the Cats play in the last game of the round, this time coming up against the Saints, who have been awful in their last two outings. With Geelong playing their first home game of the year at Kardinia Park, expect them to put on a show for the locals. Unfortunately for die-hard Cats fans, Gary Ablett picked up a hamstring injury in last week's loss to West Coast, and will not feature back in his home town this week. Nevertheless, St Kilda's youngsters may find themselves on the end of another thumping at a ground where Geelong have been imperious in recent times.  

Key AFL Stats

  • In the last two games played at Kardinia Park between these two sides, the Cats have won by 96 and 101 points respectively. 
  • Geelong has won 10 of its last 13 day games at GMHBA Stadium (Kardinia Park). 
  • St Kilda has a 12-15 (44.4%) line record as an away underdog from 2015 onwards. 

Suggested bet: Geelong to cover the line (-29.5) @ $1.92

 

 

 

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