Analyst: James Beeson
Apr 06, 2018 11:08 AM
A Trans-Tasman battle
This year’s ATC Derby can again be likened to a Bledisloe rugby test, with no fewer than 7 Kiwis making the trip across the ditch. In recent years, New Zealand have provided the superior stayers and it would take a brave punter to suggest they can’t do it again here. Speed will play a key role, with a lack of it to favour the local hopes, and a fast pace to set it up nicely for the NZ runners.
Race Track Traits
Randwick is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and fine weather forecast for the day. The track has thrown up some distinct fast lanes in recent racing with the rail being less favourable in some riders’ views and the middle of the track preferred on occasion. Suspect this week with the dry conditions predicted it should race fairly, however a close watch is advised early to determine if the inside is a disadvantage.
A significant long price move for Endowment early, who’s opening quote has more than halved from $71 to $31. Favourite Ace High remains solid at the $5 mark.
#1 Ace High $5
VRC Derby winner who has been waiting for this trip all preparation and is sure to enjoy the step up to 2400m. Had genuine excuses last start in the Rosehill Guineas where was wide through the middle stages with no cover. Draws in gate 2 where will have the tactical speed to be on pace if they choose to be there. Is one that could easily bounce back with a big run.
#2 Vin De Dance $8.50
Kiwi who has one run under his belt in Australia last start in the Rosehill Guineas. Was relegated to fourth on protest after crossing the line in second and showed more than enough to suggest he will be highly competitive again here. Won the NZ Derby on a rare Good surface and is one of the Kiwis that may actually prefer it dry. Respect any moves late in betting.
#4 Mongolianconqueror $13
Chased bravely in the Rosehill Guineas yet still finished well back. Narrowly went down in the NZ Derby to Vin De Dance where you could argue he had a worse run than the winner. Will just eat up this distance, although he will need to find the back of a good one to tow him into it, as he looks to be getting well back in this field. Will be running on hard late.
#6 Levendi $12
Was ultra impressive winning the Tulloch over 2000m last start where he kept chasing all the way to the line. That is the profile to win this and with Mark Zahra piloting, he will have every chance from gate 3. Suspect they will look to take a position close to the speed and if they don’t go too fast up front, this Pierro colt may well race away with it.
#8 Furore $7 > $6
Has had a rapid rise to city level after having all starts in provincial/country grade before coming to town last start where he should have won! That was in the Rosehill Guineas where he was knocked down at the 300m mark before recovering to run third on protest. There was a big tip around for him that day, suggesting he must be showing plenty at home. Hard in the market again for this and always respect when this stable bets.
#12 Mission Hill $12
One of four Murray Baker/Andrew Forsman runners entered in this and most likely their second pick. They usually bring the right horse and this could be it, after showing enough in the NZ Derby to earn a ticket to Sydney where he kept chasing in the Rosehill Guineas last start. Back to the distance he needs to show his best. Close watch.
#14 Belfast $11
Had the flashing light on last start in the Tulloch where he came from last to be right with the winner just past the line. Crying out for this trip and is the one to be on if they go warp speed up front. Gate 17 is of no concern as he'll flop out and most likely go back to last in any case. They have booked an in form Kerrin McEvoy, who would have taken his pick of most of these. Goes on top.
Of The Others….
Tangled could be the forgotten horse here and looks good value at the current $18 quote. Impressive run when second in the Rosehill Guineas last start and does have a Derby trip under his belt last season in Victoria.
3rd Vin De Dance
4th Mission Hill