Analyst: James Beeson
Apr 12, 2019 01:33 PM
Big risks on Saturday
The two runners that we've identified this week, one each at Randwick and Caulfield, represent huge risks for punters on Saturday.
One is a horse still trying to find his way in the higher grades and faces a stiff test with a tricky draw.
The other is a huge chance to be tapering off after a busy Group 1 campaign.
Both should be avoided at all costs and represent excellent “Lay” propositions.
Randwick Race 5 #7 Classique Legend $4.80
Has again been installed favourite in a race with plenty of depth.
He was good last start at Rosehill in the Listed Darby Munro, when he finished 3 of 9 after doing it tough throughout.
However, this is another step up in grade and he would need everything to go right to be winning this.
The speed map is ugly, where from gate 7 he will be forced to work hard early to be crossing runners on his inside.
Jonker and Sheriff will pour on the pressure and he is almost certain to be in for the most torrid of runs.
Expect a significant market drift and avoid at all costs. Lay.
Caulfield Race 8 #3 Eduardo $2.10
Has been up and racing well, however it seems as though he's now over the top.
They can often go right off the boil at the back end of an arduous Group 1 preparation and at the price, he looks a great risk here.
Although he is back to Listed grade, it would have never been in the initial plan and these “afterthought” races are always a concern.
He typically likes to ride the speed and there is plenty of that engaged around him on this occasion.
This runner simply won’t get it all his own way out in front and you can expect him to capitulate inside the last 50m. Lay.