Analyst: James Beeson
Apr 26, 2019 12:37 PM
Ugly Speed Maps
This week’s lay selections focus on two runners that face challenging speed map predictions.
The expected running positions for both horses will force them to push forward with speed around them, which is certainly not ideal.
Look for these short-priced favourites to drift significantly in betting markets as we approach the jump.
Hawkesbury Race 4 #3 Irithea $3.00
Has struck a tough race here with plenty of serious talent engaged.
Some speed maps have her leading with ease, however it would not surprise to see both Manicure and Aeecee Tong De challenge throughout the early stages.
Multaja looks the horse to beat for me, having no doubt taken further improvement from her recent win in Group 3 level at Randwick.
She will suck up along the inside for the entire trip and if the breaks come, will simply power home over the top.
The SP profile also indicates that Irithea was not expected to race well first-up last start, when jumping at odds of $16 before putting in a solid on-pace effort.
Happy to mark her as a strong candidate for the dreaded “second-up syndrome” where she may race flat here.
The current $3.00 in betting appears well under the odds and you can expect a significant market drift as we approach start time. Lay.
Eagle Farm Race 9 #1 Redzel $1.65
Going to pot the high profile sprinter here and I strongly believe he is on a downward trajectory now, following the last start failure in the TJ Smith at Randwick.
The speed map also looks ugly where he is likely to be attacked from a number of horses drawn to his outside, including the very speedy I’m A Rippa.
This should set the race up for a run-on profile and Winter Bride fits this bill perfectly.
I certainly prefer to be taking the $4.60 about her than the poison $1.65 about the favourite.
Avoid Redzel at all costs on Saturday. Lay.