Heavyweights square off & old Dogs with new tricks
We're in for a blockbuster on Super Saturday as a top of the table clash takes place at the foot of the mountrains where the Panthers will host the Dragons. Both sides have been brilliant this season and will be looking to consolidate their position at the top of the NRL ladder before they lose key players to State of Origin duties.
The game shapes as a final opportunity for Penrith halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary to push for the coveted NSW Blues halves roll, whilst Dragons half-back Ben Hunt will be hoping for another big performance to ensure his selection as the Maroons half-back.
Sunday's headline game will see the Tigers take aim at the Bulldogs. Former Belmore favourite Josh Reynolds will come off the bench for Wests to face-off against his old teammates, whilst Aaron Woods will wear the blue and white against his old club.
The likes of Woods, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson will all be pushing for representative selection and will need to impress selectors to earn their spot in the Blues' line-up.
The Roosters continued their rollercoaster form in round eleven, once again failing to win consecutive games. Leading 22-16 with 14 minutes to go, the Chooks looked to have gained the ascendency but were shown up by two lazy defensive efforts to go down to Brisbane 22-28.
The Titans impressed with a fighting effort against the Knights, however they'll need to improve significantly to go with the Roosters in this match-up.
The Chooks risk falling out of the top eight with a loss and with Origin ahead, they can't afford to be complacent. Trent Robinson will be all too aware of the importance of this match particulary as they take this home game to Central Coast Stadium, a venue where they have struggled at in the past.
Robinson has named an unchanged Roosters outfit, whilst the Titans welcome back Kevin Proctor from injury with Moeaki Fotuaika dropped to the reserves.
Key NRL stats
The Titans have covered the line in their previous 6 encounters when away to the Roosters.
The Titans have lost their previous 5 games played in NSW.
The Roosters have failed to cover the line in their last five outings at Central Coast Stadium.
NRL Betting Tip: No bet
Reasoning: The Roosters are clearly the better of the two sides. The bookies have this market spot on, but given the Roosters' poor record in covering the line against the Titans and average form at this ground, it's best to stay out of this game.
Missed our preview of the Thursday & Friday night games?Read it here.
The Warriors continue to get the job done without star halfback Shaun Johnson and find themselves equal with Penrith, sitting one victory off the ladder leading Dragons.
Parramatta posed a threat last week, however despite being without Johnson and gun fullback Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, the Warriors once again proved they have built a new and improved culture and are playing accordingly.
Souths were very lucky to get away with a win in North Queensland in Round 11, with a last minute penalty gifting them the one point victory. The loss of Alex Johnson sees Greg Inglis move to fullback, which will be a mouth-watering proposition for bunnies fans.
Now well entrenched in the top eight you'd expect the Rabbitohs to go on with it through the origin period and cement their position come season's end.
The kiwis welcome back Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, which sees Peta Hiku shift back into the centres with Gerard Beale cut from the 17.
Souths will be without Alex Johnston after he succumbed to a hamstring injury. Inglis' moves to fullback sees Adam Doueihi start at centre and Mark Nicholls gets a call up on the bench.
Key NRL stats
The home side has covered the line in 6 of the last 8 games between both sides.
The Warriors have won 5 consecutive games at home as favourites.
The Warriors' previous 8 Saturday night games have resulted in UNDER the total match points.
NRL Betting Tip: Under 37.5 total match points line @ $1.90
Reasoning: 8 of the Warriors 11 games this season have resulted in UNDER total match points. Without halfback Shaun Johnson, they'll again struggle to score points against a quality side in South Sydney. There is rain forecast for Auckland over the weekend, which should ensure a dour affair at Mt Smart.
The top of the table clash provides the perfect platform for State of Origin contenders to prove they are worthy of selection.
Penrith was once again gritty against the Tigers in Round 11, with the halves pairing of Maloney and Cleary having their first hit out in a number of weeks. This combination will only continue to grow if both are picked for the Blues, which will likely see the Panthers primed for a crack at the premiership come September.
St George-Illawarra has proven themselves as genuine premiership contenders. This is an important period for the club as they face the prospect of being without the likes of Ben Hunt, Euan Aitken, Cameron McInnes, Tyson Frizell, Tariq Sims and Jack de Belin over the Origin period. Coach Paul McGregor will be determined to avoid a repeat of the 2017 season when the Dragons hit a mid-year slump.
The Dragons have been less than convincing in recent weeks and will look to steady the ship against a Penrith side that knows only one way at home- winning!
Both sides remained unchanged for this fixture.
Key NRL stats
The Dragons have won their past 4 games against the Panthers.
The Panthers have won 10 of their past 11 games at Penrith Stadium.
5 of the last 6 encounters between the sides have resulted in UNDER the total match points line.
NRL Betting Tip: Panthers to win head-to-head @ $2.10
Reasoning: The Panthers are simply too good at home to be outsiders and will give the Dragons a good run for their money. The halves partnership of Maloney and Cleary will be pressing for Origin selection so you'd expect a massive performance from both players.
The Dragons have proven to be a premiership force but will be up against it coming off two performances that can only be described as mediocre.
The Knights were competitive against the lowly ranked Titans last week, before once again taking the foot off the pedal. With the exception of Kalyn Ponga, the Knights look second rate and will need a miracle to overcome the Sharks in this game.
Cronulla continued on their merry way in round eleven, with a solid victory over the Bulldogs. Coach Shane Flannigan will be on 'Ponga watch' this week, ensuring his fringe defenders are on high alert. Containing the young-gun will go a long way to ensuring the Sharks make it six-in a-row.
Newcastle's halves dilemma continues, with injured Brock Lamb replaced by Jack Cogger, whilst Jamie Buhrer earns a recall in place of the injured Jacob Saifiti.
The Sharks welcome back two of their stars in Luke Lewis and Wade Graham, which pushes Kurt Capewell and Jack Williams out of the 17-man squad.
Key NRL stats
The Knights have only won 2 of their past 7 games as home favourites.
Cronulla have won their last 6 encounters against Newcastle.
The last 3 games between these two sides have resulted in UNDER the total match points line.
NRL Betting Tip: Sharks to win by a margin of 1-12 points @ $3.20
Reasoning: The Sharks continue to find a way to win and it's unlikely the Knights will halt their momentum. Kalyn Ponga will pose a constant threat in attack and with a strong home crowd, the Knights will hang in the contest until the final siren. Expect the Sharks to prove too strong in a close one.
The Tigers' early season form appears to be a thing of the past with only one win from their last five outings. They only managed two points in their round eleven clash with the Panthers and now face a Bulldogs side who defend their line better than most.
Canterbury has little issues in defence, however, their attack is what lets them down especially when playing the highly ranked teams. Bulldogs fans will fancy their chances to grind out a victory against the Tigers in what is expected to be a tightly contested game of footy.
West Tigers coach Ivan Cleary is in pursuit of a solution to his team's poor attack, making changes to his backline which see Tuimoala Lolohea return to fullback and Corey Thompson back to the wing. Mahe Fonua returns from suspension, with Robbie Rochow dropping out of the 17. Josh Reynolds returns from injury, in place of Chris McQueen.
The Dogs will be without Josh Morris for eight weeks and he's replaced by Josh Olive. Raymond Faitala-Mariner returns to the starting line-up, with Adam Elliot moving to the bench and Asipeli Fine dropped to reserve grade.
Key NRL stats
Canterbury have had the wood over their Western Sydney rivals in recent season, winning 9 of the past 12 encounters between the two.
The Tigers have lost their last 12 games when favourites playing on Sunday.
Combined, both teams have an average of 33.5 total match points per game this season.
NRL Betting Tip: Under 37.5 total match points line @$1.90
Reasoning: The Bulldogs’ inability to score points has really hurt them this season. Both sides lack attacking prowess but are solid in defence, which suggests the under 37.5 points looks the best bet of the weekend.
May 25, 2018 12:57 PM
AAP
