Round 15 provides us with some intriguing Saturday and Sunday fixtures where plenty is at stake for most, as the top 8 remains wide open and teams fight to bed down their position in the right half of the table.
The standout has to be the clash of ladder leaders St George against a struggling Manly, and what shapes to be a bitter stoush between the two halfbacks in Hunt and Cherry Evans.
After a tumultuous week, will DCE show QLD selectors he should be considered for game two?
The Dragons pack have the luxury of a genuine origin strength back row in Jack de Belin, Tariq Sims and Tyson Frizell, who will all challenge the Manly fringes. Whilst the Sea Eagles benefit from the return of Moses Suli in the centres, following a disciplinary indiscretion.
St George dominate all the key metrics and will make it very difficult for Manly however suspect this could be a banana skin game for the Dragons.
Manly are coming off a string of losses, conversely the Dragons are in cruise control leading the comp and dominating the past few weeks.
It is this profile that can very dangerous for a high flying team and I’m banking on Manly holding a significant motivation edge here, especially as they were flogged at their last two by the Dragons.
The extra effort will be present for the Sea Eagles and this encounter will be closer than many think.
Moses Suli (Sea Eagles)
Nil
Fine conditions are predicted for Saturday at WIN Stadium which has excellent drainage and should have handled Sydney’s recent wet weather well enough to provide a dry and fast surface for this match.
Key Match Ups: Bitter Cherry V Hunt
It is no secret Daly Cherry Evans remains bitter after being continually snubbed by the Queensland Origin powerbrokers, who simply will not consider him for selection, even for an interchange bench position. Whilst Hunt is clearly top pick in the starting side, Cherry will relish the opportunity to showcase his talent against incumbent QLD Origin half Hunt, and expect sparks to fly in this clash.
Key NRL Stats:
The Dragons represent a tough opponent for all clubs, dominating all the key attack measures –
St George average points per game is 24.5 vs Manly 20.9
The Dragons have won 4 of their past 5 games at home
St George leads the competition in possession percentage (54%)
NRL Betting Tip: Back Manly +9.5 @ $1.92
Reasoning:Manly fit the motivation model perfectly for this fixture after coming off a number of hard losses, whilst St George continue to cruise along at the top of the ladder.
In particular the recent drubbings at the hands of the Dragons, on the last two occasions they met will add to a steely intent for Manly.
Sharks V Broncos Saturday 7:35pm (Sothern Cross Group Stadium)
Brisbane experienced a high-pressure week on the road to Melbourne last week where they did have their chances against the Storm going down 32-16.
The brutal (Bennett v Bellamy) build up and associated high-pressure environment will be enough to promote the onset of fatigue for the Broncos and traveling to Shark Park is the last thing they would have wanted.
The Sharks chalked up a grinding win against the Tigers and will be in much better shape mentally and physically, than a battered and broken Broncos.
Suspect the fresher Sharks will have the fatigued Broncos outfit well covered in this one and can bet confidently at the line.
James Roberts (Brisbane)
Nil
Fine conditions are predicted for Saturday at Southern Cross Stadium which should attract a large congregation of the Cronulla faithful.
Key Match Ups: The Engine Room Gal v Broncos Pack
There is no doubt Paul Gallen has elevated himself to cult status with his work rate through the middle and fearless runs at opposition forward packs.
He single handily got them home last week against the Tigers, with his powerhouse runs one out off the ruck.
Gal will be at it again against the entire Broncos forward pack. He may single out Josh Maguire for specific attention!
Key NRL Stats:
The Broncos have a 3-4 record as an away underdog over the past year
Cronulla rank second in the competition for offloads (170)
Cronulla rank first in the competition for intercepts (8)
NRL Betting Tip: Back Cronulla -4.5 @ $1.92
Reasoning- The freshness of the Sharks both mentally and physically will be telling late and suspect Cronulla will run over the top of Brisbane in the second half.
Knights V Storm Sunday 2pm (McDonald Jones Stadium)
Love the profile of Newcastle here coming off a painful 2-point loss to the Roosters and taking on competition glamour club Melbourne Storm.
The Storm had their biggest build up to a match this season last week, with the hype and expectation surrounding their clash with the Broncos and the added spice considering the bitter battle between Craig Bellamy and Wayne Bennett.
Can imagine the Storm player group will be lacking the spark required to be up for this one and the associated mundane Newcastle road trip.
Conversely Newcastle will be highly motivated to put in a big performance against the competition hot shots, in front of a parochial Newcastle home crowd where they are 10:7 against the Storm at MacDonald Stadium.
An early season Storm drubbing (40-14) will also add a steely edge to the Newcastle player group this week.
Billy Slater (Storm), Will Chambers (Storm), Luke Yates (Knights)
Jamie Buhrer (Knights), Jesse Bromwich (Storm)
Fine and cold conditions are predicted for Sunday at McDonald Jones Stadium in Newcastle, where the hometown fans will be keen to show their support whilst viewing the Melbourne Storm talent.
Key Match Ups: Gun Fullbacks
Just how good is Kalyn Ponga? Expect to find out more in this regard, as he takes on one of the best in Billy Slater. Both will be keen to show the other up here, in what shapes as an intriguing contest of playmaking and kick returns.
Key NRL Stats:
Melbourne have won their last 5 against Newcastle.
Newcastle have lost their last 3 at home.
Newcastle rank second in the competition for Lines Engaged.
NRL Betting Tip: Back Newcastle +8.5 @ $1.92
ReasoningI am convinced last weeks Broncos fixture at Aami Park has taken plenty out of the tank for both Storm coach and players, and suspect the foot will have come off the accelerator mentally down South during this weeks preparations, considering they won and take on a lowly Newcastle.
The Tigers have been unlucky not to get a result there past few when beaten narrowly by some of the better sides in the competition.
Last week they skipped out to lead early 8-2 against Cronulla before some Gallen grunt got the Sharks home (24-16) in a scoreline which does not reflect how competitive the Tigers were. Suspect this form is good form and the Raiders always appear vulnerable away from the capital.
Wests have been very good without winning of late and can finally chalk one up here.
Fine and cold conditions are predicted for Sunday at Campbelltown Stadium.
Key Match Ups: Grub vs Grub
Josh Reynolds will be looking to get one up on the talented Blake Austin in what shapes as a great battle at five-eighth. Both are known for their tenacity and don’t mind playing dirty to get the job done. Reynolds is building a nice profile at the Tigers and suspect he can get the upper had here.
Key NRL Stats:
Wests Tigers have only won 2 of their past 8 games.
Canberra have suffered 4 losses by 2 points or less this season.
Wests Tigers are 4-2 when they enter home games as favourites.
NRL Betting Tip: Back Wests Tigers hd to hd @ $1.80
Reasoning- The Tigers form is not bad against quality opposition where they have been losing narrowly, they get their chance to atone for those losses here and will appreciate the drop in class against the Raiders outfit.