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Raiders Josh Hodgson

NRL Betting Preview Round 16: Super Saturday

Tagged: NRL

Hodgson the key as the Raiders make a charge for finals footy

Panthers  v Sea Eagles  

NRL Odds: Panthers $1.33 (-10.5) / Manly $3.50 (+10.5)

The Panthers return home this week with the hope of erasing memories of their round 15 loss to the Roosters. 

Off the back of rep week, NSW halves James Maloney and Nathan Cleary are vulnerable to post-Origin sluggishness.

Both looked lethargic off the short back up after game one and Panthers fans will be hoping they fire up this time around. The longer turn around should help.

Penrith front-row enforcer, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, will be out for up to six weeks in what will be a blow for their minor premiership hopes.

Manly welcome back Dylan Walker and fans will be hoping his energy sparks a late rally as they attempt to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon.

The Sea Eagles have plenty of talent and are well overdue for a strong performance. 

Look for Jake Trbojevic to lead from the front as he did in Origin game two.

NRL Player In  Moses Leota (Panthers), Viliame Kikau (Panthers), Dylan Walker (Sea Eagles), Manase Fainu (Sea Eagles)

NRL Player Out  Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Panthers), Corey Haraweira -Naera (Panthers), Akuila Uate (Sea Eagles), Tom Wright (Sea Eagles)

NRL Weather Fine weather and 17 degrees is forecast. Expect to see a fast-paced game with some expansive footy to be played. 

 

Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored - Panthers 21.9; Sea Eagles 20.0
  • Average points conceded - Panthers 15.9; Sea Eagles 24.3
  • James Maloney has missed 98 tackles so far this year, the most of any player

NRL Betting Stats  

  • Clashes at Panthers Stadium have averaged 33.5 total match points 
  • Of the Panthers 10 wins, 7 have been by a margin of 1-12 
  • Manly have only won 1 of 6 on the road this season

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Sea Eagles to cover the line of +10.5 @$1.90 

Reasoning: The Sea Eagles have plenty of attacking weapons and have scored an average of 20 points per game this season. The Panthers should prove too strong at home, but they have some obstacles to overcome. Expect this to be a close encounter. 

 

 Missed our preview of the early games? Read it here

 

Knights v Bulldogs  

NRL Odds: Knights $1.53 (-5.5) / Bulldogs $2.60 (+5.5)

Newcastle will consider themselves a hope for finals footy if they can string a few wins together.

Young-gun Kalyn Ponga has taken everything thrown at him this season and will look to single handedly get the Knights over the line.

The loss of Lachlan Fitzgibbon is significant for the Knights as he is often the man on the receiving end of Ponga's magic.

The Bulldogs have found themselves in an unenviable position.

The mid-season moves of Moses Mbye and Aaron Woods may free up salary cap space, but it will hurt the team significantly. Mbye was arguably the Dogs best player in attack, but this weekend, he'll be plying his trade with the Tigers.

Throw in Kieran Foran and Raymond Faitala-Mariner sidelined for the rest of the year and the Doggies will be doing well to avoid the wooden spoon. 

 

NRL Player In  Jacob Lillyman (Knights), Brett Morris (Bulldogs), Rhyse Martin (Bulldogs),

NRL Player Out  Lachlan Fitzgibbon(Knights), Moses Mbye (Bulldogs), Aaron Woods (Bulldogs)

NRL Weather  Mostly sunny. 

 

Key NRL stats

  • Points scored per game- Knights 17.7; Bulldogs 14.9
  • Points conceded per game- Knights 26.1; Bulldogs 20.6
  • Kalyn Ponga is ranked first in the NRL for tackle breaks (116) and line-break assists (13) and kick return meters (871)

Key Betting Stats 

  • Of the Knights 6 wins, 5 have been by a margin of 1-12 
  • Of the Bulldogs 11 losses, 7 have been by a margin of 1-12
  • The Knights have 100%-win record when leading at halftime

 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Knights to win by a margin of 1-12 @$3 

Reasoning: With Kalyn Ponga in full flight, the Knights should account for the Dogs. Newcastle has struggled all season to put big numbers on the board so don't expect the Dogs to be blown away.  

The Bulldogs lack of potency in attack has only worsened with the loss of Moses Mbye. However, the Knights have plenty of defensive deficiencies which will be welcome news for the Bulldogs new halves pairing.

 

Any idea who the best NRL expert tipsters are? Check out the celebrity tipster leaderboard here 

 

Broncos v Raiders  

NRL Odds: Broncos $1.60 (-3.5) / Raiders $2.40 (+3.5)

Brisbane found some solid form in round 15, defeating the Sharks in a tight contest.

A win here for the Broncos will go a long way to cementing a top-eight finals footy spot

The big unknown for Brisbane is whether halves Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima can produce back-to-back 80-minute performances. 

This week is do or die for Canberra, and the naming of Josh Hodgson at hooker is the key to their chances.

Hodgson has been the missing link for coach Ricky Stuart, so expect the Raiders to make a late run at the top eight off the back of his long-awaited return.

 

NRL Player In  Tom Opacic (Broncos), Junior Paulo (Raiders)

NRL Player Out  Sam Tagatese (Broncos), Luke Bateman (Raiders)

NRL Weather  Partly cloudy, 60% chance of rain

 

Key match-up

Hookers: Josh Hodgson v Andrew McCullough

In his first game back this season, Josh Hodgson was on the field for 46 minutes for the following contribution: 3-try assists, 3-line break assists, 4 try involvements, 4 kicks for 106m, 4 runs for 38 meters

Andrew McCullough has only had 3-try assists and 2-line break assists for the whole season

 

Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored - Broncos 19.1; Raiders 23.7
  • Average points conceded - Broncos 19.1, Raiders 21.1
  • The Broncos have won their last 5 clashes against the Raiders

Key Betting Stats 

  • Nick Crotitc has scored 8 tries in his last 8 games compared to opposite winger Jermaine Isaako who has scored 11 try causes in his last 14 games.
  • The Raiders have scored the first try in 64.3% of games 
  • Brisbane have won only 50% of games when marked as favourites this season 

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Raiders to win head-to-head @$2.20  

Reasoning: This is a must-win for the Raiders if they want to play finals footy. They possess strike weapons across the field and it will be up to Josh Hodgson to direct those players to the right areas. His 46-minute performance off the bench in round 15 was outstanding.

Hodgson is arguably the second-best hooker in the NRL, behind future immortal Cameron Smith, and he'll show his worth in this game. 


                                                                                                                                                                                                                            = High Confidence

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