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Carlton Blues

AFL Betting Tips Round 18: Sunday afternoon footy

Tagged: AFL

Another Blues battering on the cards

Sunday's schedule of AFL footy commences with Carlton's young team trying to overturn an 8-game losing streak.

Despite being fresh off a loss to the Lions, the Hawks won't make it easy for Brendon Bolton's side.

The other two games sees three teams embroiled in the race for the top four and the coveted double chance in finals. 

While you'd expect the Eagles to get the job done over the Bulldogs, both GWS and Port are capable of getting the win at the Adelaide Oval

 

Carlton v Hawthorn

AFL Odds: Carlton $5.90 (+36.5) / Hawthorn $1.14 (-36.5)

It seems the Hawks just got too complacent last week against the Lions.

You can bet they won't make that mistake again this week, coming up against a Carlton side who will be on the end of another mauling, if Hawthorn play at their peak.

You've got to feel for the Blues and their fans. Carlton's performances on the field have certainly been hard on the eye this year.

With injury troubles as well as a recruitment strategy that has seen them load up on young players, the Blues' line-up in recent weeks has looked more like a VFL than an AFL starting 22.

While this will probably pay dividends in the long run, it means a few more thrashings before the end of the year.

Hawthorn by contrast are a team with premiership as well as big-game experience. The only obstacle they will face is a mental one and with finals footy to play for, they should be winning comfortably.

AFL Player In Ryan Schoenmakers (Hawks, likely)

AFL Player Out James Sicily (Hawthorn)

AFL Weather Another game played at Etihad under the roof. Hawthorn could rack up the points if they're in the mood.

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • Carlton have failed to cover the line as an underdog at Etihad Stadium this year (3 games).
  • The Blues have lost their last 8 games, by an average margin of 49 points.
  • Hawthorn have covered the line in 14 of their last 19 away games (74%), after playing interstate in the previous round.

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Hawthorn to cover the -36.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: On top of everything else, Carlton are just too young.

 

Missed our preview of Saturday's games? View it here

 

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

AFL Odds: West Coast $1.11 (-41.5) / Western Bulldogs $6.70 (+41.5)

After a little blip, it looks like the Eagles are back to their early season form which saw them win ten in a row.

Their fans would have already penciled this game in as an easy four points.

While the players have probably done the same, coach Adam Simpson will have drilled into his players the importance of not getting complacent in these types of games.

While the Eagles are back, they will have to cope without Nic Nat.

The talented ruckman is out for the season with another ACL injury, in a cruel blow for Naitanui and his club.

However, with plenty of talls in their line-up, the Eagles have the personnel to fill the void left by Naitanui, and make a real charge at the flag.

Since offering some resistance and looking like somewhere near their best three and four weeks ago, it looks as though this was only a false dawn for Dogs fans.

Like the Eagles, the Bulldogs are back to their early season form, which isn't a good thing. Two consecutive losses by 50-points or more in the last two weeks is a worrying sign heading into this one.

AFL Player In Tom Boyd (Bulldogs, likely), Hayden Crozier (Bulldogs, likely)

AFL Player Out Nic Naitanui (Eagles)

AFL Weather This one is forecast to be wet and windy. This will likely keep the game closer, and make goal-scoring all the more valuable in the tricky conditions.

AFL StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

With the trying conditions, the Bulldogs' struggles in front of goal aren't likely to improve.

The experience of gun full-forward Josh Kennedy will come to the fore for the Eagles, as he looks to make a late dash for the Coleman medal.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Eagles have covered the line in 4 of their 5 day matches at home this year: West Coast to cover the 41.5 point line @ $1.92

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Total Match Points Under 148.5 @ $1.90

Reasoning: With the 95% chance of significant rainfall on Sunday afternoon, this game could degenerate into a low-scoring affair. Indeed, only 109 points were scored in the last game at Optus Stadium, when the Dockers narrowly triumphed last round. 

 

Any idea who the best AFL expert tipsters are? Check out the leaderboard here

 

Port Adelaide v GWS

AFL Odds: Port Adelaide $1.76 (-4.5) / GWS $2.10 (+4.5)

A cracking game to end the round sees the confident Giants make the journey to Adelaide to face a Port side whose confidence is dented.

Boosted by the return of Toby Greene, the Giants held on for a crucial win against ladder-leading Richmond in Round 17.

This was the fifth win out of the last six games for the Western Sydney-based club, in what is shaping up as a genuine surge aimed at securing a top four spot.

This effort is strengthened by the expected return of Brett Deledio for this big clash.

Even though most people didn't expect Port to loose last week, the signs were definitely there. Since their last quarter comeback over the Demons in Round 14, they have been far from spectacular.

Getting back in front of their raucous home fans will certainly help, in another game that is likely to go down to the wire this week.

AFL Player In Brett Deledio (GWS)

AFL Player Out Paddy Ryder (Port), Robbie Gray (Port, likely)

AFL Weather No rain but set to blustery in Adelaide, which could pose some difficulties for kicking at goal. 

AFL StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

With midfield stats so balanced between these two sides this year, the game will likely be decided by whose mids stand up on the day.

The loss of Port Adelaide ruckman Paddy Ryder is a huge blow, as he provides quality service to the advantage of his midfielders, leading to clearances.

With Deledio back, and some of the Giants best players like Josh Kelly and Callan Ward hitting top form, expect GWS to win this battle.

Key AFL Stat

  • Port have won 9 of their last 10 matches as a favourite after a loss in the previous round: Port Adelaide to win head-to-head @ $1.76.

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: GWS to win head-to-head @ $2.10

Reasoning: Based on recent form, and key injuries to the Power, the Giants are excellent value and surprise underdogs. Even though it's never easy to win at the Adelaide Oval, GWS should have Port's measure here.

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