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Dragons Tyson Frizell

NRL Betting Tips Round 18 Preview: Sunday afternoon footy

Tagged: NRL

Saints aiming to get back on track

Broncos v Warriors

NRL Odds: Brisbane Broncos $1.60 (-2.5) / New Zealand Warriors $2.25 (+2.5)

The Broncos are flying under the radar, winning five of their last six games.

They were at their attacking best against the Titans last week and with a home game up next, you’d expect them to be confident.

The four origin players returning this week will only bolster a squad already riding the crest of a wave.

New Zealand looks to be on an all too familiar downward spiral. In recent years, they have struggled late in the season and this year looks to be no different.

Their finish to the 2017 season saw them lose eight straight on the way to missing the finals.

While the Warriors have underperformed in recent weeks, they have a high-quality team, who are fit and healthy and will push the Broncos in this game.

With perfect conditions forecast, expect both teams to trade tries throughout the game in what will be a high scoring affair.

NRL Player In Corey Oates (Broncos) James Roberts (Broncos) Andrew McCullough (Broncos) Josh McGuire (Broncos) Anthony Gelling (Warriors) Joseph Vuna (Warriors)

NRL Player Out Jonus Pearson (Broncos) Patrick Mago (Broncos) Jake Turpin (Broncos) David Fifita (Broncos) Ken Maumalo (Warriors) Ligi Sao (Warriors)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 19 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Broncos 20.5 / Warriors 19.3
  • Average points conceded: Broncos 20.9 / Warriors 19.9
  • The Warriors have won 6 of 8 away games in 2018

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • The Warriors have won at 71.4% when underdogs this season: Warriors head-to-head @ $2.35
  • David Fusitu'a (3) leads both teams in first try scorers this season: David Fusitu'a first try @ $9.50
  • Clashes at Suncorp Stadium have averaged 45.6 total match points: Over match line of 41.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: 'OVER' total match points line of 41.5 points @$1.90

Reasoning: With weather conditions to suit, this game will be played at a fast pace. In a free-flowing affair, the Warriors could easily click into gear and put some points on.

At the same time, they have shown the ability to leak points and with Broncos in-form, you'd expect a high scoring affair.

 

Missed our preview of Super Saturday? Read it here

 

Dragons v Tigers

NRL Odds: St George Illawarra $1.36 (-8.5) / Wests Tigers $3.20 (+8.5)

Round 17 marked another loss for the Dragons against a top four team.

In a worrying sign for coach Paul McGregor, St George has conceded more points than any team currently in the top six.

A statistic wihich will also concern Dragons fans is that no team that has conceded 50 points in a competition game has gone on to win the premiership that year.

The Saints have named all their representative players for this clash, although McGregor has previously suggested he will rest at least one of these players post origin.

Wests welcome back Benji Marshall, who reunites with Robbie Farah for the first time since 2013. Coach, Ivan Cleary will be hoping his new signings can complement his existing squad.

The Tigers are coming off a bye and with their new look spine, expect them to improve significantly and give the Dragons a run for their money in this clash.

NRL Player In  Ben Hunt (Dragons) Paul Vaughan (Dragons) Tyson Frizell (Dragons) Tariq Sims (Dragons) Jack De Belin (Dragons) Benji Marshall (Tigers) David Nofoaluma (Tigers) Ben Matulino (Tigers)

NRL Player Out Jacob Host (Dragons) Darren Nicholls (Dragons) Hame Sele (Dragons) Reece Robson (Dragons) Blake Lawrie (Dragons) Josh Reynolds (Tigers) Malakai Watene-Zelezniak (Tigers) Chris McQueen (Tigers)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 14 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game: Dragons 25.1 / Tigers 15.1
  • Average points conceded per game: Dragons 17.9 / Tigers 18.4
  • The Dragons have won 9 of their last 10 at Jubilee Oval

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • The Dragons have conceded an average of 23 points in their last 7 games
  • Euan Aitken (3) leads both teams in first try scorers this season - Euan Aitken first try scorer @ $13
  • Clashes at Jubilee Oval have averaged 40.7 total match points

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Wests Tigers to cover the line of +8.5 @ $1.90

Reasoning: The Dragons have leaked plenty of points in recent weeks and face a Tigers team filled with attacking weapons.

Given the Tigers are coming off a bye, you'd expect the mid-year signings to have had time to build their combinations.

St George will need a huge form reversal to cover the line here.

 

Any idea who the best NRL celebrity tipsters are? Check out the celebrity tipster leaderboard here 

 

Titans v Roosters

NRL Odds: Gold Coast Titans $3.10 (+8.5) / Sydney Roosters $1.38 (-8.5)

The Titans were blown off the park by the Broncos in round 17, all but giving up in a loss that signalled the end to their finals hopes.

The return of Origin stars Jarrod Wallace and Jai Arrow will add some much needed go forward to their pack this week.

The Roosters, fresh off a bye, are eyeing off a top-four spot and will view this game as a must win.

The loss of Boyd Cordner and Dylan Napa for this game is a concern for the Chooks, however Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Aubusson are more than capable replacements.

On a dry surface, look for the Roosters to play an open style of footy. If the Roosters hit top gear on the Gold Coast, it will be a long day for Titans fans.

NRL Player In  Jack Stockwell (Titans) Jarrod Wallace (Titans) Jai Arrow (Titans) Joseph Manu (Roosters) Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (Roosters) Mitchell Aubusson (Roosters)

NRL Player Out  Dale Copley (Titans) Morgan Boyle (Titans) Leilani Latu (Titans) Matthew Ikuvalu (Roosters) Dylan Napa (Roosters) Siti Tupouniua (Roosters)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 17 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Titans 18.5 / Roosters 20.1
  • Average points conceded: Titans 25.1 / Roosters 14.2
  • The Titans have won 3 of 7 at home this season, with each of those 3 wins coming against teams outside the top 8

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • Easts have scored the first try in 69% of their matches this season
  • Latrell Mitchell (4) leads both teams in first-try scorers this season - Latrell Mitchell first try scorer @ $11
  • Clashes at Cbus Super Stadium have averaged 40.8 total match points

NRL Betting TipNRL Betting Tip: Roosters to cover the -8.5 line @$1.90  NRL Betting Tip

Reasoning: The Roosters are on a charge to the finals and despite a hiccup against the Storm, they will get back on track here.

The Titans have little to play for and once the Chooks win the early arm wrestle, don't be surprised to see them lay on the points.

                                                                             NRL Betting Tip = High Confidence

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