Analyst: James Beeson
Jul 12, 2019 01:31 PM
Massive market moves
The big punters appear very active this week, with a number of significant betting moves seen at both the key venues Caulfield and Rosehill.
Last week we struck three times, with heavily backed winners saluting in both Melbourne and Sydney.
Look for leading rider Hugh Bowman to dominate the Rosehill card this week, with a number of his best chances outlined below.
Has to make the step-up to Sydney Saturday grade, however looks right up to it following a strong provincial win.
He has strung two wins together now and deserves a chance in town, where he won't strike an overly strong Benchmark 75 event.
Blake Shinn can race close to speed from gate 2 and with a lack of speed elsewhere, the leaders should have it between them.
Strong speed map favours say yes.
Jason Coyle has an outstanding strike rate and will only enter a horse if it is a genuine winning hope.
This filly looks all quality and can go right on with it following the dominant last start win at Randwick.
Even with the scratching (deductions) of River Bird, the move in betting is still savage.
Jumps straight to the front and should give nothing else a chance. Yes.
The key booking of top rider Hugh Bowman says it all given he would have taken his pick of this field.
He made good ground from well back last start over 1400m and can only improve over the extra ground (1500m) here.
The speed map has them running along at a decent clip, which will allow Nahuel to suck up and enjoy the speed from an inside draw (gate 1).
Trust Bowman to get the job done.
Has shown ability all the way through his career and took on Group 1 grade in the Chipping Norton Stakes three starts back, where he wasn't disgraced after finishing 5 of 9.
He's trialled well in preparation for this and arrives with an excellent first-up record (5:2-2-0).
Bowman will bounce him straight to the front and look for a cheap mid-race sectional.
If he's left alone in the lead, look for him to simply kick hard off the front and win. Yes.
Was excellent winning on debut at Sale, before having excuses in her latest run at Sandown where she was forced out wide.
She was reported to have had a slow race recovery after that run, which suggests the filly was not at her best.
She can bounce back to winning form strongly here and appears to have the tactical speed to position anywhere in the run.
The stable have booked gun rider Jamie Kah and the money looks warranted. Yes.
Arrives third-up here from the powerful Waller yard after a 4-week freshen.
He was good last start at Rosehill behind the smart River Bird and England. Expect that form to hold up well here in Melbourne.
From gate 1 they are likely to take a sit and won't have to go around a horse after sucking up along the rail.
Michael Walker is in career best form and can win on anything in recent times. Trust Waller to have him ready.
Returns from a Queensland Winter carnival campaign, where he raced well throughout.
He was only 2.5 lengths off the smart Baccarat Baby when running second in the Sunshine Coast Guineas at his latest.
Comes back to 3yo handicap conditions here, where the 60kg should not be a problem considering a lack of genuine quality in this field.
Appears classes above to my eye and should win with ease. Yes.
Has only missed a place once out of his past seven starts and is a last start winner at the Sandown circuit.
He seems to be relishing racing this time in and will be rock hard fit for the 1700m here.
Has drawn the outside in gate 11, however his natural 'backmarker pattern' suggests the starting position presents no real issue.
Dunn will ride him in the back half and cuddled up in the moving line, before seeking clean air to get home hard.
Should launch strongly late.