Analyst: James Beeson
Jul 05, 2019 11:40 AM
The big betting moves continue to flow this week, with strong betting activity at both key venues Flemington and Randwick.
We struck twice last week on the Sunshine Coast feature card with dominant wins to both Tarzan and Baccarat Baby.
Remove the scratched horses from last week's selections and followers would have finished with a tidy 62% POT.
This week, pro punters have singled out two tough on-pace types for Gai and Adrian early in the Randwick card.
Both have significant speed map favours, where the support in betting appears warranted.
Has been excellent at her past three, where she's never been out of the money having showed plenty of fight from close to speed positions.
She finds a race here that lacks tempo and should bounce straight to the lead to take control.
Any cheap sections throughout will allow her to kick hard off the front and it will take a very smart one to get past her.
Speed Map favours are significant. Yes.
Is shooting for a hat-trick this time in and looks highly likely to achieve that as the heavily backed odds-on favourite.
The short quote in betting has not deterred pro punters, who still found the opening $1.75 “good value”.
It looks as though the support has locked onto the fact that he gets a dream run from the inside draw and should simply lead throughout.
I doubt any of his rivals here will have the courage to take him on early and he should simply win.
Has been racing well over the staying distances and was tested in Group 3 grade three starts back when he finished well back.
The stable opted to compete in Group grade earlier this prep, which indicates they believe he has above average ability.
He deserves his place in the Stayers Final following the excellent Sandown performances and should be storming home late from a midfield position.
Could start shorter.
Arrives straight out of Listed grade, where he finished a close up 5 of 11 in the A.R. Creswick stakes over this course and distance.
He had excuses on that occasion, when he got too far back and lost a plate during the run.
Happy to forgive and the pro punters clearly believe he can bounce back strongly in this.
The Robbie Griffiths stable love a bet and he must be flying at trackwork. Yes.
Rule The World
Just got in (0.8 lengths) on debut at Canterbury, when he led and gave a good kick to find the line well.
Expect him to lead again here from a mid draw in gate 6 and he can control it in much the same fashion from out in front.
The times at Canterbury suggested the win was no fluke and if he can at least hold that form, he will be hard to run past.
Is another last start Canterbury winner for Gai and Adrian, who brained the field on that day by 2.3 lengths.
This looks a fast run race, however from gate 1 the rider can punch up and hold out any challengers.
He has an ultra consistent record (5:2-2-1), where he's never out of the money.
Whilst this is a leap in class, he should cope well. Yes.
Placed 3 of 15 here last start over the mile, in what has proved to be a strong form race with the second placegetter (Toryjoy) having gone on to win.
He should now be rock hard fit after three runs in this prep and the one 1600m run under the belt.
Gets speed map favours from gate 2, where the rider can punch up to take cover just in behind the leader.
He can then choose the preferred lane, which may be out wide at this stage of the day.
The timing looks impeccable.
Godolphin are coming off a record-breaking season and can continue on that path with this blue-blooded mare.
She was excellent first-up when placing 3 of 13 after a long break away (30 weeks) and the second-up stats say yes (2:1-1-0).
The stable have been very consistent of late when backing one, where they usually get the result when the money is on.
Look for one further push inside the last few minutes of betting to add extreme confidence.