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Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 13 July 2019


Caulfield casualties

We look to continue our perfect strike rate from last week, with two warm favourites at Caulfield that both appear well under the odds in current betting.

Our first selection in the opening race will remind punters that taking short odds in 2yo races is rarely an easy watch.

We then turn our attention to race five, where the high profile Godolphin stable should ensure our second selection starts well under the odds.

Avoid both at all costs. Lay.

 

Caulfield Race 1 #1 Can’t Be Done $3.10

Is forced to face a field stacked with ability here and appears to have come up far too short at $3.10.

I wasn’t completely convinced by the Sandown win, where she had a luxury run close to speed and was entitled to sprint well off the front.

Whilst the speed map has her leading here, a high-pressure race is expected from these 2 year-olds, which is unlikely to see her left alone.

With the rail only out 3m, this gives the opportunity for one of her rivals to get the suck run back in behind the front runners, before peeling and charging late.

The price can only get longer as we approach the jump and this runner should be avoided at all costs. Lay. 

 

Caulfield Race 5 #3 Organza $1.90

Has been very well found at the price by the public mug money, as is normally the case with any Godolphin runner who has shown ability.

However, I highly doubt the Ipswich Listed form holds up here.

First try at Caulfield and first anti-clockwise run are both strong reasons to oppose her at the poison $1.90. 

She will get back in the run to near midfield or worse, and she'll need luck picking her way through from either position. 

The mugs will love the “Team Blue” factor and compress the price artificially on the tote. The value is clearly elsewhere. Lay. 

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