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Penrith Panthers 090318

NRL Betting Tips Round 23: Key Stats for Super Saturday

Tagged: NRL

No Maloney, No Problems

Panthers Knights

NRL Odds: Penrith Panthers $1.28 (-10.5) / Newcastle Knights $3.75 (+10.5)

The Panthers were at it again last week, winning their third consecutive come-from-behind game in a last-minute victory against the Titans. 

With Nathan Cleary missing an easy match-winning conversion after the siren, it appeared the enormous pressure of a week in the headlines might have taken its toll. 

But those thoughts were short-lived, with Cleary calmly slotting a 30-metre field goal to deliver the final blow in a 17-16 golden-point win. 

This week the Panthers will run on without injured star five-eighth James Maloney, who will be replaced by the more than capable young-gun Tyrone May. 

May held his own in the halves during the State of Origin series, steering the Panthers around the park while Maloney and Cleary were on representative duties. 

Unlike the Panthers, Newcastle has lost their last three games and appear to have their sites set forward on the 2019 season. However, given their talented roster, don't expect the Novacastrian's to fold like a house of cards in the run home. 

The Knights are ranked first in the league for completion rates and with good field position look for Ponga and Pearce to pour the pressure on in their attacking zone. 

NRL Player In  W Egan (Panthers), J Tamou (Panthers)

NRL Player Out J Maloney (Panthers), J Hetherington (Panthers)

NRL Weather Fine and 21 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Panthers 22.2 / Knights 17.5
  • Average points conceded: Panthers 18.5 / Knights 25.4
  • The Panthers have won their last five encounters with the Knights

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • 9 of the Panthers 14 wins have been by a margin of 1-12 - Panthers 1-12 @$3.25 
  • Tyrone Peachey (2) leads the Panthers in first try scorers this season: Tyrone Peachey first try @ $11 
  • Clashes at Panthers Stadium have averaged 37.6 total match points: 'Under' match line of 44.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Panthers to win by a margin of 1-12@ $3.25 

Reasoning: The Panthers home record of 8 wins from 11 games and strong winning form suggests they will find a way once again to get the win. 

Tyrone May has proven an able replacement for James Maloney in the past, and expect May to step up once again. 

 

Missed our NRL Premiership Betting Tips? Read it here

 

Tigers Dragons

NRL Odds: West Tigers $1.75 (-2.5) / St Geroge Illawarra $2.08 (+2.5)

The Tigers are in fine form and this week have a chance of moving into the top-eight. Winning four of their past five games, and with the Ivan Cleary coaching saga well behind them, they are now heavily focussed on finals footy. 

With their monotonous, grinding style of play, Wests have managed to suffocate their opposition most of the season. 

Ranked 2nd in the league for forced drop-outs and completion rate, the Tigers have proven their ability to build pressure on their opponents.

And speaking of pressure... no coach in the NRL is currently under more than Paul McGregor.

The Dragons are a shadow of their former selves, falling from joint competition leaders in round 19 down to fifth position after round 22. 

The loss of Gareth Widdop is a huge blow for the Dragons, who will now rely heavily on half-back Ben Hunt to steer them around the park. 

With both the Tigers and the Dragons trending in opposite directions, the Tigers head into this game as deserved favourites. 

NRL Player In  M Fonua (Tigers), C Lawrence (Tigers), J Host (Dragons)

NRL Player Out M Watene-Zelezniak (Tigers), J Liddle (Tigers), G Widdop (Dragons)

NRL Weather Fine and 16 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game: Tigers 16.0 / Dragons 22.6
  • Average points conceded per game: Tigers 17.6 / Dragons 19.5
  • The Dragons have won 3 of their last 5 encounters with the Tigers 

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • 9 of the Tigers 12 wins have been by a margin of 1-12: Tigers 1-12 @ $3.00 
  • Euan Aitken (3) leads both teams in first try scorers this season: Euan Aitken  first try scorer @ $14
  • Clashes at Leichhardt Oval have averaged 37.0 total match points: 'Under' match line of 39.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Tigers to cover the line of -2.5@ $1.90

Reasoning: The Dragons haven't been playing well enough in recent weeks and the loss of Gareth Widdop is a huge blow. The Tigers have everything to play for and should come out on top. 

 

Any idea who the best NRL celebrity tipsters are? Check out the celebrity tipster leaderboard here.

 

Sharks v Cowboys

NRL Odds: Sydney Roosters $1.20 (-11.5) / North Queensland Cowboys $4.60 (+11.5)

The Sharks return home off the back of an impressive win over Melbourne last week, but the 'come down' off a season-best performance could also be their biggest threat. 

Cronulla also proved too strong for Melbourne back in round four of this year, only to come out a week later and produce a lack-lustre effort against the Chooks.

The Cowboys are building momentum nicely at the moment off the back of a Johnathon Thurston farewell tour. 

Having won two of their last three, including a narrow loss to the competition-leading Roosters, the Cowboys will be looking to end the Sharks hopes of a top-four finish. 

In a huge blow to the Cowboys, arguably their best player, Jason Taumololo will miss this week due to suspension.

Matt Scott and Jordan McLean will need to step up to fill the big shoes of Taumololo, who ran for a whopping 286m against Brisbane last week. 

NRL Player In K Capewell (Sharks), F Molo (Cowboys)

NRL Player Out W Graham (Sharks), J Taumalolo (Cowboys)

NRL Weather Fine and 14 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Sharks 20.1 / Cowboys 17.1
  • Average points conceded: Sharks 18.0 / Cowboys 22.0
  • The Cowboys have won their last 2 encounters with the Sharks 

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • 12 of the Sharks' 13 wins have been by a margin of 1-12: Sharks 1-12 @ $3.10 
  • Val Holmes (3) leads both teams in first-try scorers this season: Val Holmes first try scorer @ $8.00
  • Clashes at Southern Cross Stadium have averaged 41.3 total match points: 'Over' match line of 40.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting TipNRL Betting Tip: Sharks to win by a margin of 1-12@ $3.10 

Reasoning: The Sharks should prove too strong at home with a top-four spot on the line. Expect the Cowboys to try their guts out, but unfortunately, the loss of Taumololo will be too great for the Cowboys to overcome. 

                                                                             NRL Betting Tip = High Confidence

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