Punting Lesson - Why I backed Sasko against the market expectation
Ok I have actually copped some flak about my comments about backing Sasko somewhere else so this is a good time to go into the way I did the form for that race on Saturday.
The main players.
1. Sin To Win was black booked by me after his last start third placing behind Too Close The Sun in the Listed Warrnambool Cup. On this day he carried 56 kilos and in this race he carried 59.5 kilos after the claim. There were three factors why I put him in to third place in the pecking order, One the weight increase, Two the fact he gets back and this was a heavy track and Three he had not won for 734 days so there were reasons to not put him on top.
2. Sasko was a good winner leading throughout to beat Nashville Sound at Warrnambool lasts start. This day I thought at 58 Kilos after the claim only two kilos above the limit suited him, he was a front runner and this was a heavy track and he was in form I felt he was the one to beat and the odds were way overs.
3. Good Idea was third last start behind Haky in a strong handicap race over 2600m. He has been up for a while and three runs back ran 2nd behind King of Leogrance in the Group 2 Adelaide Cup. He was holding his form well, had soft form and was well weighted in this grade hence why I put him in for second place.
4. Yonkers was down from Sydney after contesting races of 2000m or less. He had a win on heavy but no wins above 1900m so I could not include him.
5. Starcaster is an international who has had mixed form in four races here so far. He just did not look good enough in my eyes.
6. Shepard won a Benchmark 78 last start really well and prior to that ran a second placing to Starcaster who was rated in some circles. I did not rate him in my top three because I felt at 56 kilos right on the limit his weight was too close to more proven stayers in the race. He may be a future star in many eyes but in this race I just couldn’t have him.
In my eyes every race is a blank canvas and the old me would have put Sin To Win on top after his luckless third placing in a slowly run race at the Bool.
Posted: Tue, May 26, 2020
