29/8/20 Randwick tips and analysis for San Domenico Stakes Day
Rail: True
Rating: Good 4
Weather: Fine
Meeting overview and track analysis:
The rail is out 3m on what should be a fast racing surface. At this set-up punters can expect the following;
- On-pace runners to have an advantage in Sprint races (1000-1200m)
- Any horse with a soft time in front to prove very hard to run down
- The track to play fair in all other races, assuming there is even tempo in front
Race 1 - 1500m
Overview
Interesting race to start the day here. Any number of these could win and if you fancy one, it’d be tough to talk you out of it.
The Favourite 
She’s Ideel $4.60 – The Baker stable are flying and Jason Collett has been riding well. There was some early support for this girl by Dundeel, suggesting she can fire first-up.
Late betting will tell the story with her. If she’s well supported in the last 5minutes, then she’s worth following.
Race Tip
Chris Waller trains 6 of the 10 runners engaged and I doubt he could tell you the best of his lot. The only push outside of Waller’s runners would be if the money comes for the favourite.
Race 2 - 1100m
Overview
These middle-distance Highways are always easier to assess than the sprint trips. The bookies look to be all over this race which doesn’t leave much meat on the bone for the punters. That being said $4.40 in what looks a two-horse race is good value any day!
The Favourite
Yulong Base $3.00 has been well supported from $3.50. He’s only won 1 from 6 and will be forced to carry 58kg from barrier 9. The form from his maiden win is moderate at best. His recent trial was strong and suggested he’s ready to peak on Saturday. I’m not keen on taking $3 on offer.
Race Tip
Cosmic Haze came a long way last preparation going around in the Group 3 Adrian Knox and Group 1 ATC Oaks. Although she was a long way of the winner at both runs, they were on Heavy tracks and she was deep into a long prep. The Cavagnough stable have had time to work her out and I expect her to come back a much smarter horse at her third prep.
Her recent Scone trial was brilliant. She led them up over 1000m and ran through the line under double wraps. The time was solid, but it was more the way that she moved the caught my eye.
From barrier 7 with Jason Collett aboard, there is a chance she can settle more forward than what I’ve mapped, but that’ll depend on how cleanly she jumps. Either way she’ll be 4 or 5 pairs back, with cover and will be poised to strike on turning for home.
Race 3 - 1500m
Overview
This is a very interesting race. By now we should have some idea as to how the track is playing. If they’ve been making up ground from back in the field, I suspect the Waterhouse/Bott runner Discharged to be left alone in front. If that’s the case, he’ll be very hard to beat.
The Favourite
Badoosh $4.40 was impressive last start, when backed off the map. He was ridden as the best horse in the race on Heavy track, with Collett making an early run which proved the difference. This is a step up to Saturday grade, against some talented gallopers so he’ll need to lift again.
His record on Good tracks of 12:1-4-2 isn’t ideal and this is the hardest races he’s ever contested. Pass!
Race Tip
I think Discharged comes across to lead at all costs and it’s just a matter of how easy that lead will be. It wouldn’t shock to see Josh Parr amble across on Bobby Dee to sit just off Discharged in the run, which will likely see the race run at even sectionals.
If we get even sectionals in front, I expect Discharged to be very hard to catch!
Race 4 - 1200m
Overview
A deadest lottery here. I thought Pressure could be the big improver out in front and with fitness on his side now 3rd up. BUT!!!!! You then read the gear changes and he’s got synthetic hoof filler for the first time… Shoulders arms here punters!!!
The Favourite
Word for Word $4.80 naturally starts favourite with the combo of J-Mac & Waller. He doesn’t win out of turn 20:2-8-2 and is 6:0-1-2 on Good tracks.
Not a galloper that I could be backing!
Race Tip
Giving this race a miss.
Race 5 - 1100m
Overview
What a cracking race we have on our hands here! Funstar is the class runner of the field, but will need to be near the top of her game to be winning.
The Favourite
Anders has opened $3.00 and looks vulnerable here.
He's been unstoppable against the B-grade gallopers in recent runs, but meets a dry track and some quality gallopers this time.
His Good track record of 4:0-1-1 should be a huge concern for punters, given the prediction of a fast racing surface!
He looks a huge risk and I have little doubt that he'll drift in the market.
Race Tip
Peltzer is undefeated at his three career runs, including a huge win over Anders on debut. He continued to improve throughout last preparation and has been high up in the Golden Rose markets ever since.
He was great in a recent trial, leading with ease before being kept under a stranglehold the entire straight.
This is his first run at his home track and I expect him to explode over the top of these late and shorten significantly in Golden Rose and Everest markets.
Race 6 - 1100m
Overview
Looks a very fast race on paper which should set up well for runners in particular.
I expect the leaders to be compounding late, so we want to be on those who can sit just off pace in the running line.
The Favourite
Sangria $4 is a Listed winner who arrives here in a BM78. She failed on a Heavy track first-up but is far better suited back on a Good track where her stats read 4:2-0-1.
She’s drawn to sit just off a hot speed and will have first crack at them. She’s the one they have to beat!
Race Tip
There looks two standout chances. The favourite, as above and Electric Girl. Electric Girl came a long way last prep and has trialled well for her first-up run. She’s lightly raced and has scope for serious improvement. Back them both!
Race 7 - 1400m
Overview
A solid enough Group 3 over the 1400m here. It’s a very tough betting race and I’ll be keeping an eye for ant late betting moves.
Overlord is the best horse in the race, but has drawn barrier 1 and may need luck from there.
The Favourite
Overlord $2.50 has opened favourite but has a bit against him.
If they go hard in front, he’ll get his chance, but I’m not keen on backing a maiden runner at their 5th start in a Group 3.
Race Tip
Plenty of variables at play, so I’m happy to stay out of this race.
Race 8 - 1900m
Overview
We get to see rising stayer Mugatoo out to the 1900m here and if he’s any chance of picking up a bigger race in the Spring, he should be winning this. The big question mark is how far off the leader he’ll be on turning for home?!?!?!?!?!?!
The Favourite
Mugatoo has opened $2.50 favourite and has been well supported into $2.10.
His first-up run was huge, he defeated Sambro 0.8-lengths and Taikomochi by 2.1-lengths.
He meets Taikomochi 0.5kg worse at the weights this time, but will strip fitter from his first-up run.
There is little doubt that he's the best horse in the race, but Kerrin McEvoy will have to be on his game to ensure Taikomochi isn't off and gone.
This looks a 2-horse race and I expect us to get closer to $2.50 on Saturday. With even luck on turning for home, his class should prevail.
Race Tip
I see one of two things happening in this race. Taikomochi gets a soft lead and is simply too far in front of Mugatoo to be run down.
Or the more likely scenario, Mugatoo chases down the leader and class rises to the top.
Either way, we can back both runners for a positive result.
Race 9 - 1200m
Overview
Gee this looks an open race. There are some talented runners who are going around at big odds, so I’ll be playing two of them each-way for a result.
The Favourite
Subpoenaed $4 has an outstanding first-up record 3:2-1-0 and has drawn well. The combination of J-Mac and Waller should ensure she starts favourite.
Is she dynamic enough to win this from last, perhaps she is? Must include in all exotics.
It’s worth mentioning, second-favourite Wandabaar faces her toughest task yet and faces some boys this time round. Not hopeless but this looks a pretty deep race.
Race Tip
I’m happy to back two runners each-way.
Kubrick at $31 ran 4th in the Run to The Rose first-up two preps ago, before running 3.5-lengths off Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance in the Golden Rose. He was plain last prep but has been given the ultimate gear change in a gelding operation. He’s has two soft trials in preparation for this and is a genuine knockout hope!
Nudge @$16 will get a soft run along the rail and has the class to win this race. She was competitive in Group 1 company against her own age last prep and there is no reason she can’t be competitive against this field. She trialled twice for in preparation for this, alongside Kubrick, well behind Nature Strip
Posted: Thu, September 03, 2020
22/8/20 Randwick tips and analysis
Rail: True
Rating: Soft 7
Weather: Mainly Fine
Meeting overview and track analysis:
The rail is in the true position for the first time since June 20th. On that occasion the track appeared to play fair, but on further analysis 6 of the 9 races were won by the leader or a galloper who was rails in the run.
I expect the best going will be lanes 1-4 in the home straight, with an advantage to those who have drawn inside barrier over the sprint and middle-distance trips.
As always, it’s important to stay dynamic with our punting throughout the day. If a track pattern emerges, we need to bet accordingly and if for some reason the predicted bias or advantage doesn’t play out in our favour, we must reduce bet size.
Race 1 - 2400m
Race Overview:
This looks a great event to start the meeting. 6 of the 8 runners have won at their previous two starts and the other two ran solid enough 2nds last time out.
The key to most 2400m races is fitness, so having at least one 2400m run under under your belt is a huge plus. All the runners engaged have either reached peak fitness or are maintaining such.
The Map:
Kiss The Bride (1), will push forward from the inside, with Home Ground (4) set to utilise the 3kg claim for T. Sherry and go forward to contest the lead. Desert Path (2) was ridden more forward last start and can once again sit closer in the run. California Longbow (5) is likely to sit alongside DP in the run, with the other runners likely to find their feet early.
The favourite
Nash Rawiller is replaced by J-Mac, and I have no doubt James would be aware that a repeat of last starts tactics will go a long way to winning this race.
He’s rock hard fit at his 8th run this prep, and his 4th over this distance, so you can only expect him one thing and that’s that he’ll be thereabout the last 100m.
Conclusion:
There are only 4-runners who have had runs at 2400m or beyond coming into this race, so it’s fair to say they have an edge on their rivals. Desert Path goes up 2kg, which is a risk, but is a deserved favourite.
California Longbow is a huge risk on a Heavy track and needs it a Soft 6 or better, while Birth Of Venus couldn’t get close to either of those two runners at her last two starts. True Marvel was strong in weaker grade last start and was caught in the worse going two runs back.
If there is a blow out, he looks to be the one with 53.5kg.
Race Tips:
- Desert Path Win @3.60 (Low Stake)
- True Marvel E/W @$16.00 (Low Stake)
Avoid: Kiss The Bride has come back in good order this prep and is coming off a last start win, which ensures she’s well in the market. Unfortunately, she loses the services of J-Mac and steps up 600m carrying an extra 2kg (60.5kg). She profiles like she’ll need a respirator at the 200m and that alone is enough to keep clear.
Race 2 - 1100m
Race Overview:
What a nightmare these Highway races are to assess!!! There is no way you can bet with confidence given the variety of form lines that are thrown our way..
The Map:
There will be plenty of speed as always, with at least 8 runners a genuine chance of leading. This will ensure a decent tempo and will likely to play into the hands of a runner who will be poised to strike mid-field. Two runners who fit that profile are Skara Brae (5) and It’s Me (7).
The favourite
Pinnacle Prince knocked off the highly spruiked Virtuous Miss on debut. Unfortunately for Pinnacle Prince fans, Virtuous Miss has been beaten at odds on at her following two runs, struggling to frank the form.
There is no doubt this guy will take a tonne of improvement into his second-career start, but the harsh reality is, he could be a below average galloper, who is facing some decent highway gallopers.
At the $3.60, I’m not willing to part with my hard earnt.
Conclusion:
There are only two runners I could consider backing and they are Skara Brae (5) and It’s Me (7). They’ll both need a touch of luck from mid-field, but will be making strong ground late.
Race Tip:
- Skara Brae Win @10.00 (Low Stake)
- It’s Me / Skara Brae Quinella (Low Stake)
Avoid: Pinnacle Prince, as per reasons stated above!
Race 3 - 1600m
Race Overview:
Contested over the famous Randwick Mile, it looks J-Macs race to lose. Most of these are quite limited in their ability, except for the favourite New King, who appears to have plenty of upside.
The Map:
Frosty Rocks (3) and Mercurial Lad (5) know only one way and will both set up a strong early tempo.
This should play perfectly into the hands of J-Mac/ New King (10) who can show some intent and cross with the favourite, to ideally land in the one-one. I expect This Is So (4) to hold the fence behind the leader, with Adana (2) trailing him, along the fence in the run.
The favourite
New King, goes up 2kg and has drawn wide, which is a positive given the predicted fast early speed. If J-Mac is positive from the gates, there will be room for him to slot in behind the two leaders. If he executes this move, it’ll be good night doctor!
Conclusion:
I can only see this race panning out one of two ways. New King slots in and kicks clear the final 200m, with Adana chasing hard into 2nd.
Race Tip:
- New King Win @3.60 (High Stake)
Avoid: Frosty Rocks. Had every possible last time and is sure to be pestered up In front this time around.
Race 4 - 1200m
Race Overview:
This is a tricky little race for the 3yo Fillies. 8 of the 10 runners arrive here first-up and the 2 with a fitness edge, lack class. It’s not something you want to make a habit of, but I can’t be siding with the race fit horses this time around.
The Map:
Kaakit Akit (10) will lead them up In typical Waterhouse/Bott style and is set to control the tempo.
Dame Giselle (9) has only one option from out there and that’s to tag the leader across.
Miss Canada (2) and Redoutes Image (8) must race handy to the speed given they have a fitness edge, with the remainder of the field finding their feet early.
The favourite
See You Soon, has trialled really well and is 2:1-1-0 first up. She is the best horse in the race, but faces a tough task given she’s likely to sit last on the rails, off a moderate speed. She could win, but it won’t be an easy watch. I would have much preferred barrier 3 or 4 for her, which would have allowed her to wind up down the straight, instead of ducking and weaving.
Conclusion:
This isn’t a race I’m particularly keen on betting in. If I had to bet, it’d be strictly from a speed map perspective, with a very small play on the Waterhouse/Bott trained runner.
Race Tip: No bets
Avoid:
Betting too much money in this race.
Race 5 - 1200m
Race Overview:
What a cracking race we have on our hands here! Funstar is the class runner of the field, but will need to be near the top of her game to be winning.
The Map:
Special Reward (10) will lead them up from the wide barrier and possibly string them out early.
Le Romain (1) and Wild Planet (4) will push forward from the low draws, with Southern Lad (6) likely to sit 4th with cover.
Funstar (7), is likely to sit three-pairs back with cover, while Probabeel (2) will get the soft run in transit, three back the fence.
The favourite:
Funstar has opened $3.00 and is looking to improve on her impressive record of 9:5-3-0. She ticks plenty of boxes and is 6:3-3-0 at Randwick and is 2:2-0-0 at the distance.
If there is a query it would be that she's vulnerable first-up, with only the 1 win from 3 attempts fresh. That said she is the class runner of the field and deserves the favourite tag.
Race Tip
Funstar $3.00 has a great record on rain-affected tracks and is the class horse of the race. She is a genuine race horse who will put her best foot forward every time she gets on to the track.
Her recent trial was strong and given the good pace in this race, I think she'll get her chance to fly over the top late.
Race Tip:
- Funstar @3.00 (Low Stake)
Avoid:
Taking anything less than $3 Funstar, she is class but she’s not fully wound up. She’ll be featuring heavily in a few staking plans this Spring!
Race 6 - 1100m
Race Overview:
Looks a genuine race in 2, between Sweet Deal $6 and Adelong $2.10. Speedster, Witherspoon is also entered at The Valley and if she is scratched from this race, it’ll be a one act affair!
The Map:
Witherspoon (4) is a jet and will string these out. Adelong (8) is a rising star of the turf and is blessed with plenty of early toe and can absorb pressure.
I expect these 2, to be at it a long way from home. If Witherspoon comes out, Adelong leads for fun and will be untouchable out in front!
Seasons (2) and Invictus Salute (1) can both sit handy in the run and will get first crack at chasing down the leader/s.
Sweet Deal (5) will be suited by a solid tempo and from the soft draw and is likely to sit two pairs back in the running line, with cover.
The favourite
Adelong $2.10 is a little vulnerable with Witherspoon in the race, so the current quote looks short.
However, I think two things will happen here. Witherspoon is scratched and Adelong will remain $2.10 and drift slightly or Weatherspoon runs and she’ll drift out to $3 range.
If Witherspoon is out, she’s the best bet of the day, with Witherspoon in, I’ll be saving on her only.
Conclusion:
Adelong $2.10 is flying, loves the rain affected going and maps to control this race out in front. She’s will carry 53.5kg, 5.5kg less than her nearest rival and if left alone in front will be too hard to run down.
Race Tip:
- Adelong Win @2.10 (High Stake)
- Sweet Deal Quinella (Medium Stake)
Avoid:
Taking anything less than $2 Adelong. We’ll get better than that ($2.50) at some stage!
Race 7 - 1400m
Race Overview:
What a Group 1 we have on our hands here! $6.50 the field but there is one runner who is set to stand above the pack for mine!
The Map:
There looks to be plenty of speed engaged for the feature race of the day.
Dreamforce (16) is likely to push up from the wide draw, as will Quackerjack (14) and Wolfe (9).
I also expect Zebrowski (7) and Con Te Partiro (2) to both hold forward positions from their good draws.
The cracking speed should set-up for mid-field runners and given previous track patterns under these conditions, we should be looking for a galloper who is rails in run.
The Bostonian (1) has drawn perfectly to sit off a hot speed and with even luck will get first crack at his rivals, as does Godolphin's Flit (5).
The favourite
Master Of Wine has opened the $6.50 favourite in a wide-open affair. He's had two soft trials in readiness for this, but looks a huge risk over the 1400m first-up.
Two preparations ago he took quite a few runs to hit his straps. He then returned from a 15-week spell and proved too good in a BM100 first-up defeating Aliferous in a 9-horse field, suggesting he can perform first up. This is Group 1 company however, and I doubt he's wound right up. No thanks!
Conclusion
The Bostonian $7.50 has been well supported in early markets and rightfully so.
His first up record his unbelievable (7:6-0-0). To make his first up record even more appealing, his last two fresh runs have resulted in Group 1 victories.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 1 and maps to do no work in the run, three back on the rail. With even luck on turning for home, he'll be bursting through a gap and putting the sword to this talented field!
Race Tip:
- The Bostonian Win @7.50 (High Stake)
Avoid:
Backing runners who are set for staying preparations, Verry Elleegant, Master Of Wine etc…
Race 8 - 1400m
Race Overview:
There are some talented middle distance and staying types hidden amongst some average BM88 horses here and this race looks to set up perfectly for a runner at big odds!
The Map
The scratching of You Make Me Smile (14) will allow Just Thinkin’ (9) to dictate terms out in front.
What happens from there is anyone’s guess, with the remainder of the filed likely to find their feet from the gates. The only runner of note, who could position close to the speed is Minted (3).
The favourite
Kinane, has opened up the $5.50 favourite in what is a genuine laugh!
He’s coming off a staying prep where he got too far back and couldn’t close off against some moderate QLD gallopers at Eagle Farm. From barrier 12 he’ll give away a huge lead and is expected to chase down some smart types over 1400m. Pass!
Conclusion
Just Thinkin’ will get his own way in front and there is no doubt the Waterhouse/Bott team will have ready to fire first up. His two trials have been solid enough and I expect him to very hard to run down.
Race Tip:
- Just Thinkin’ Win @9.00 (High Stake)
Avoid:
Backing runners who are set for staying preparations, Verry Elleegant, Master Of Wine etc…
Race 9 - 1200m
Race Overview:
By now the pattern of the day would have well and truly established and if rails in the run has been the place to be then there are only 2 runners I want to be with. Valdostana and Bartley.
The Map:
Best Stone (6) will go forward to lead, with Bartley (3) and Valdostana (1) drawn perfectly to take a trail. To Your Health (9) and Exaggerate (14) round out the on-speed runners, with that duo likely to settle in the top 6.
The favourite
Ice Bath, has opened up the $5 equal favourite and looks a chance in an open race.
If you can make up ground late in the day, then he’ll come into contention, otherwise, I’m happy to bet around him given his wide draw and poor map.
Conclusion:
Looks like an on-pace dominated race to me, with Valdostana and Bartley are the two who can pick off the leader.
Bartley was desperately unlucky in the Black Opal when first-up last prep and looks to have returned in great order off the back off two nice trials. He looks untapped and is in for a big preparation.
Race Tip:
- Bartley Win @7.50 (Low Stake)
Avoid:
Betting in this race if rails are off late in the day. It’s unlikely but if the rail is off, Icebath is the one to beat.
Posted: Thu, September 03, 2020
