Author: James Beeson
Jun 15, 2018 09:59 AM
Pro punters active at Ipswich and The Valley
Professional odds compilers had a rare quiet weekend last week as seen in this column, with some upset results across the country. However those that put in the time to compile their own odds and can do it better than the bookies, are always rewarded in the long run.
These pros are again active in early markets this week.
By interpreting the nature of the market move we have identified the runners below which appear to have gone up at the wrong price and have been picked off by the pro punters, forcing a savage price change.
Ipswich Market Movers
A Mist Opportunity
Is a dual acceptor however from the weight of money seen in early markets, it looks like she will definitely line up in this race. Trainer Andrew Noblet knows when one is going well and it appears they have a huge opinion of this mare.
Comes off a 4 week freshen for this following a midfield finish in Group 3 grade at Morphettville. Drops significantly in class and must be showing plenty in work. Money looks spot on.
Kay Kay Boy
Brained them in the bush at Gatton last start when heavily backed before leading all the way. The 3 starts prior all reveal a strong SP profile where he has been hard in the market for each. Can make a strong case on the historical betting profile alone to suggest he will be winning this. Top hope.
Don’t Leave Me Out
Had plenty of excuses last start when raced very green and encountered trouble throughout. Betting shows he was also well fancied that day ($3.60- $2.70 late). The money has been piled on again here and suspect he is stacked with ability. Given a trouble free run would expect him to win. Yes.
I’m a Rippa
Is just that!...following a stylish win two back at Doomben where he led in Group 3 grade and ground them all into the turf, in a dominant on pace display. Last start almost did it again when only just run down in the shadows. This is a hot field but the support in betting makes sense as he will lead again and give a great sight.
Moonee Valley Market Movers
Hill Of Grange
Powerful Team Hayes/Dunn combination present here with a 2yo filly who ran well on debut at Werribee when finishing a close up third of 8. The betting is almost always the best guide for these two year old races with little exposed form.
It looks like bookies went up too big, early in the betting here and it could pay to follow the money trail.
Artee Dee Two
This is a big go in betting! ($4.00-$2.50). Giving even greater confidence is the stable responsible, that being DK Weir who does tip owners and connections when one is showing plenty at home. This looks the case here and would be shocked if this did not just win. Get on!
Was entered at The Valley recently before opting to go to the $100k Swan Hill race which he won impressively. Maps beautifully from gate 5 where gun hoop Linda Meech will lead with little pressure. Very hard to see how they can beat him. Money is spot on.
When a prominent Adelaide stable bring one across to The Valley they rarely go home empty handed. Must be showing plenty at home, following the stylish win at Morphettville last start when heavily backed late.
Has the services of Jamie Lee Kah who is clearly a gifted horsewomen (they just run for her and she has the best seat in a saddle you will ever see). Plenty of ticks and should just win.
Fought hard here last start over 1600m when placing behind two smart ones. Draws more favourably for this in gate 1 and will suck up behind the leaders to find the box seat. The map looks beautiful and if the rider can extricate at the right time he should be running over the top of this field.