• Join
  • Login
  • BNA Twitter
  • BNA Facebook
  • 09:12:41 AEST
  • Thursday, 30 June 2022
  • Gamble Responsibly 18+
Pumped Up Bet

Sports Betting Tips: Pumped Up Punt of the Week 21 July 2018

Tagged: AFL

Mug punters rarely adjust for fatigue

An edge that some professional punters hold, is their ability to make the most accurate and appropriate adjustment to their ratings when analysing the key input of fatigue.

This week we have found an excellent example which features a game where the public money will more often than not disregard this important factor.

 

Port Adelaide V GWS Giants

Mug punters are highly likely to over-bet GWS this week following their win against Richmond in round 17, however they will fail to consider how much a taxing Richmond fixture (on a number of levels) takes out of a side in terms of fatigue. 

This includes the week's build up, which is far more intense and attracts much more media scrutiny when pitted against a high profile club, as does match day and not to mention the extra physical exertion required on the field. 

Taking an overarching perspective, playing a high profile club is draining on the player group, both mentally and physically and requires a far greater adjustment in betting for fatigue. Most public money does not allow for this when pricing a fixture of this profile.

The other significant factor for this match is the fact Port Adelaide are coming off the back of a close loss to Fyfe-less Fremantle, which typically will breed a heightened sense of motivation amongst the player group and a greater sense of urgency for this week. 

The profile of Port Adelaide sets up nicely where if we go back to round 7, they returned from Perth Stadium following a comprehensive loss to West Coast and reacted well in round 8 at home to beat the Crows in a hard fought win.

Whilst the sample is small, it does pay to follow, especially teams who have travelled unsuccessfully and return home.

Bet against the public money which will be on GWS and take the value about Port Adelaide.

 

 AFL Betting Tip  AFL Betting Tip: Port Adelaide to cover the line (-4.5) @ $1.90

Share On:

Trending Racing & Sport News

NBA Celtics Bucks

NBA Championship Tips & Best Bets 09/06/22

With the series tied at one a piece, we head to Boston for game 3 of the NBA finals. Golden State blew a chance in Game.....

Jun 06, 2022 01:26PM
READ MORE right-arrow

NBA Celtics Bucks

NBA Eastern Conference Championship Tips & Best Bets

We are in for a cracking series of basketball starting this Wednesday. Two teams in red-hot form are set to lock horns .....

May 16, 2022 02:09PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Milwaukee Antetokounpo

Best bets for NBA Playoffs 21st April 2022

Game 2 of this anticipated series is set to bring more fireworks than game 1. Game 1 was ugly with a low scoring contes.....

Apr 21, 2022 11:00AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Toronto Raptors Kawhi Leonard

Free NBA Picks: Best bets for Friday games 31st March 2022

This is a massive game, with big effects around play off equations. The Los Angeles Clippers head to Chicago to take on .....

Mar 31, 2022 03:16PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Sports Betting Topics


Tweets by @BettingNetworkA

More Sports & Racing news you might like

Toronto Raptors Kawhi Leonard

Free NBA Picks: Best bets for Friday games 31st March 2022

This is a massive game, with big effects around play off equations. The Los Angeles Clippers head to Chicago to take on .....

READ MORE right-arrow

GSW Bogut

09/03/22 Expert Pick & Best Bet for NBA

There is no doubting the game of the day, as the Los Angeles Clippers head to the bay to face the Golden State Warriors......

READ MORE right-arrow

Portland Damian Lillard

28/02/22 Expert Pick & Best Bet for NBA

The red hot Denver Nuggets head to Portland to take on the resurgent Trailer Blazers, who have won 4 out of their last 5.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Pittsburgh Cincinnati

Expert Pick & Best Bet for Superbowl LVI

The Cincinnati Bengals have denied all their critics to line up in Superbowl LVI against the Los Angeles Rams. The Beng.....

READ MORE right-arrow

NFL LA Chargers

Free NFL Betting Picks 17/12/2021

The Kansas City Chiefs head to Los Angeles to face the chargers. This divisional rivalry could even be the match of the .....

READ MORE right-arrow

Pitsburgh Steelers Roethlisberger

Free NFL Betting Picks 10/12/2021

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings for this cracking Thursday night contest.   Pitts.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright © 2022 S93 www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au

Stay in Control. For gambling help call 1800 858 858 or your local State gambling helpline, Gamblers Help, Mission Australia or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Users must be at least 18 years old.

www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au (the "site") is not a bookmaking or wagering website. As such the site does not provide bookmaking or wagering services. We are a tipping and information service site. If you choose to take tips or use information on this website, you acknowledge and agree that you will only wager with licensed service providers for your jurisdiction. For help call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au. Our Terms and Conditions are listed here.

Feedback