This week's lays have identified two runners that see a perfect over-bet storm emerging, due to their popularity with keen ratings model players, and uninformed public mug money.
Expect both to drift significantly closer to jump and punters are advised to bet around them for more value.
Randwick Race 1 #1 Plague Stone $2.05
Going to pot the Godolphin runner here, who will naturally attract attention due to the colour of the silks.
Is a good example of where the model players can over-bet a horse due to their ultra-high scoring of the stable, jockey and form.
Most ratings models will have the Godolphin (James Cummings) 2-year-olds scoring highly and the same applies for jockey Hugh Bowman, where the number generated when both combine is flattering.
There is no doubting they should score highly, however when the entire crowd is betting in one direction it is almost impossible to find value on that side.
Add to that the expected large investment from public mug money on this runner and it is the perfect recipe for a good lay.
Running around in Group Saturday racing last prep has also forced the handicapper's hand in issuing this colt a hefty 58kg, which is plenty of weight for any horse to lump at the age of 2 no matter how good they are.
Has plenty against and the current quote in betting markets of $2.05 is well under the odds. Lay
Randwick Race 8 #3 Bandipur $2.60
Will get well back along the inside in this race and that is usually not the place to be late in the day at Randwick, especially if the middle to outside bias persists, as it did for the last meeting here at headquarters.
As mentioned above in the first lay selection, this runner will similarly be attractive and is likely to be over bet by the ratings model specialists due to their high scoring of both Godolphin (James Cummings) and high profile hoop Hugh Bowman.
Would suggest plenty of mugs will be looking through blue coloured glasses at this stage of the card also, and be keen to multi up this into their weekend NRL and AFL selection. Expecting an artificially lower SP price which is far from offering value.
Has plenty of weight and he'll be in the wrong part of the track at that stage of the day. Suspect a strong market drift is likely from the current $2.60. Avoid.