• Join
  • Login
  • BNA Twitter
  • BNA Facebook
  • 15:51:45 AEST
  • Monday, 20 August 2018
Tom Brady 020218

Super Bowl LII: blitzing the betting market

Tagged: NFL, SuperBowl

Superbowl LII betting analysis. We've found the value bet in the big dance

For the past 52 years, millions of National Football League (NFL) fans have gathered with friends and family to celebrate the winner-takes-all global spectacle known as the Super Bowl. The game itself is often dwarfed by the glitz and glamour that surrounds the event with many onlookers more concerned about celebrity wardrobe malfunctions and Budweiser commercials than the final result.

This year’s game is a showdown between the Tom Brady led New England Patriots ($1.52) and the Philadelphia Eagles ($2.60), who are cherishing their underdog status in the lead-up to the big event.

From a punting perspective the game is a money spinner, with Las Vegas bookies alone pulling in over US $138 million in 2017.

Many punters often get drawn to the unlikely exotic promotions on offer and ignore the true value within the Super Bowl betting markets. To help you find it, we've identified the key factors that you need consider before having a punt on this year’s NFL finale.

 

Why are Philly such heavy underdogs?

Injury horror. Week 14 of the regular season saw Eagles fans gasp as lead quarterback and MVP candidate, Carson Wentz, suffered a season ending knee injury while diving for a touchdown against the Rams. This unfortunate event put the microscope firmly on stand-in quarterback Nick Foles, who despite boasting experience at this level, lacked form and success in play-offs football.

Since stepping into the role however, Foles has managed to silence many of his doubters. Last week he capped off a string of solid performances with a MVP 352 yard, 3 touchdown performance in the NFC Championship game against the Minnesota Vikings, steering the Eagles through to the big dance.

If the Eagles were to go one step further and knock-off the Patriots, they would rewrite the history books as the only team to win the Super Bowl after recording a losing record in the previous season (7-9 in 2016).  

 

Defensive steel

Philly’s competitive advantage stems from their defensive line, with their 'front seven' ranked third best amongst all active rosters in the league. This solid defensive line pressures opposition quarterbacks without having to rely on blitzing and neutralising pass protectors. Expect the Patriots’ 'go-to' receiver Rob Gronkowski to receive plenty of attention from Philly’s defence, with the aim of minimising the holes for Brady to dart his bullet passes into.

 

Why are the Pats all the rage?

The team from Boston are no strangers to Super Bowl Sunday. This will be their eighth appearance since the 2001 season, having won five over that period including a thrilling 'come from behind' win over the Atlanta Falcons last season. The Patriots were the standout team of the AFC East this season, leading the NFL in total first downs and the second highest point scorers in the league. Much of the Pats’ success in recent times has been attributed to coach Bill Belichick who’s touted as the greatest Head Coach of all time. A win on Sunday would make him the first coach in history with eight Super Bowl rings.

 

The Tom Brady factor

The NFL pin-up boy may be 40 years old but there’s no denying he’s still at the top of his game. The five-time Super Bowl champion led the league in passing yards this season, edging him closer towards his inevitable induction into the NFL Hall Of Fame. One factor that makes Brady one of the all-time greats, is his ability to thrive in all conditions. He’s completed 59% of his passes under pressure this season, by far the best rate in the NFL, which suggests he’s well equipped to deal with the Eagles’ defence.

The playoffs are where Brady does his best work and in this post-season alone he’s managed to score five touchdowns and throw zero interceptions. These statistics are even more impressive when considering the re-adjustment he made to compensate for a weakened Patriots rushing attack.

 

Our Verdict

Patriots to cover the 4.5 line paying $1.90.

Despite the Eagles’ recent run of good form, one can’t look past the greatest coach and quarterback combination of all time. The Eagles have been running a very simplistic attack this season and it’s unlikely that their backup quarterback has the artillery in his arsenal to make the plays needed to win a Super Bowl. Expect Brady to find a way through the Eagles’ defence and add a sixth ring to his collection. 

Share On:

Trending Racing & Sport News

Warriors RTS&SJ 270218

NRL Betting Tips Round 23: Key Stats for Sunday footy

Bulldogs v Warriors NRL Odds: Canterbury Bulldogs $2.42 (+4.5) / New Zealand Warriors $1.57 (-4.5) .....

Aug 19, 2018 11:11AM
READ MORE right-arrow

GWS Giants 180818

AFL Betting Tips Round 22: Key Stats for Saturday Games

The twilight game on Saturday shapes up as the game of the round, with both Sydney sides looking to establish themselves.....

Aug 18, 2018 11:28AM
READ MORE right-arrow

Penrith Panthers 090318

NRL Betting Tips Round 23: Key Stats for Super Saturday

Panthers v Knights NRL Odds: Penrith Panthers $1.28 (-10.5) / Newcastle Knights $3.75 (+10.5) The .....

Aug 18, 2018 01:15PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Randwick racecourse 170718

Randwick Speed Maps Specials 18 August 2018

The Randwick track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 7m the entire circuit.  Given the warm temperatur.....

Aug 18, 2018 01:59PM
READ MORE right-arrow

Betting Offers

click and get your bonus today!

* NEW ACC ONLY, EXC NSW, SA, WA & VIC. TURNOVER REQUIREMENTS & EXPIRY PERIOD APPLY. SEE T&CS ON WEBSITE. GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY.



Racing & Sports News Topics


Tweets by @BettingNetworkA


Sports Expert Tipster Top 5

Mark Geyer
Triple M
216 Pts $ 189.9
Matty Johns
Fox Sports
210 Pts $ 183.6
Phil Rothfie..
Daily telegraph
210 Pts $ 177.8
Nick Walshaw
Daily telegraph
208 Pts $ 170.8
Matt Logue
Daily telegraph
208 Pts $ 169.7
Full NRL Leaderboard
Chris Cavana..
Herald Sun
257 Pts $ 196.1
Dermott Brer..
Fox Footy
255 Pts $ 188.4
Sarah Jones
Fox Sports
255 Pts $ 187.0
Gerard Whate..
Fox Footy
251 Pts $ 188.5
Jon Ralph
Herald Sun
251 Pts $ 183.7
Full AFL Leaderboard

Top Horse Racing Tipsters

SANDGROPER
Punter
490% POT
ErrolScott
Punter
87% POT
Mosse
Pro
80% POT
DEEPSPUNTA18
Punter
20% POT
Blaster
Pro
13% POT
Full Leaderboard
Nick Quinn
135% POT
John Davis
119% POT
Gary Kliese
12% POT
Warren Huntl..
10% POT
Howard Walte..
8% POT
 
Nick Quinn 135% POT
John Davis 119% POT
Warren Huntl.. 10% POT
Howard Walte.. 8% POT
Shayne OCass - 86% POT
 

Next Race to Jump


More Sports & Racing news you might like

Randwick racecourse 170718

Randwick Speed Maps Specials 18 August 2018

The Randwick track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 7m the entire circuit.  Given the warm temperatur.....

READ MORE right-arrow

EarlyMarketMovers

Horse Racing Tips from Early Market Movers 18/8/2018

This week sees plenty of betting moves in early markets at both feature tracks, Randwick and Caulfield. We cover the str.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Form Guide Lay

Saturday racing Lays of the Day 18 August 2018

A horse is often most vulnerable when it returns from a spell, and this week's lay selections feature two runners wh.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Caulfield Racecourse Royalty Free

Caulfield Speed Map Specials 18 August 2018

This week's selections identify two runners at Caulfield on Saturday that will benefit from high pressure races wher.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Broncos Anthony Milford 280218

NRL Betting Tips Round 23 Preview: Thursday & Friday night footy

Broncos v Rabbitohs NRL Odds: Brisbane Broncos $2.25 (+4.5) / South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.65&nbs.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Richmond Dusty Martin 2018

AFL Betting Tips Round 22 Preview: the early games

The penultimate round of the 2018 AFL regular season kicks off with the Tigers looking to extend their MCG winning strea.....

READ MORE right-arrow

Copyright © 2018 S92 www.bettingnetworkaustralia.com.au | Stay in Control. Gamble responsibly.
Feedback