Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
Jul 04, 2018 03:18 PM
Who have the bookies marked as Premiership favourites?
With a third of the NRL regular season to play, it is an ideal time to survey the latest NRL odds and work out whether the bookies have got it right.
The race for the NRL Premiership is starting to heat up and we've cast our eye over which teams have staked their claim as contenders and where the value lies in the betting market.
NRL Premiership Odds
In a very even market near the summit, it's the South Sydney Rabbitohs who are just pipping their rivals for favouritism.
The Bunnies have won eight in-a-row, playing a brand of expansive, high scoring footy that looks like it can trouble any defence in the league. However, this style of attacking footy with plenty of ball movement and offloads rarely stacks up in the finals, when completion rates and defensive solidity is the order of the day.
They will be without Greg Inglis for the next six weeks after the star centre injured his thumb in their last minute victory over the Cowboys in Cairns.
While the Bunnies are completing at 78%- the fifth best in the league- you feel there is too much that could go wrong with their game to be winning the comp.
The St George Illawarra Dragons have just about managed to hang onto the top rung of the ladder through the Origin period. With their team the most effected by state representation, it is no surprise that their standards have slipped from earlier in the year.
However, once the Origin period has passed and players like Tyson Frizell, Jack de Bellin and Ben Hunt can throw everything behind a premiership tilt, expect the Dragons to be hard to stop.
Week by week, it seems that the Storm's odds to take home another premiership shortens ever so slightly.
A one-point victory over the Chooks in Adelaide had them looking like a typical, dour Craig Bellamy premiership team.
If they can get their attack to click without Cooper Cronk running the show, the Storm could easily go back-to-back, as much as Sydneysiders would wish otherwise.
Even though the Roosters have the best team on paper, the NRL odds to claim the 2018 premiership seem unders, considering they are well back on the ladder in 6th spot.
The signing of Cronk just hasn't worked, with the Roosters looking clunky in attack. Their ball handling stats don't inspire much confidence either, with the Roosters leading the comp with 192 errors.
The Tricolours' run home is far from breezy, so if they are to claim the flag, they'll likely have to do it from outside the top four. For Sydney fans, wait for better odds.
For a bit of value, Penrith are paying $9 to win the premiership.
Like the Dragons, their team has been heavily hit by Origin obligations. Furthermore, the Panthers have been injury-riddled all year, and still sit inside the top 4.
Panthers fans will be relishing having their star halves duo Maloney and Cleary back on deck and focussed on club footy. Both will be on a high after the Blues' series victory and expect them to lift their Penrith teammates to make a deep run.