AFL Betting Tips Round 17: Saturday night footy

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• Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
• Jul 13, 2018 02:37 PM
• AAP

Giants' season on the line against high flying Tigers

Both the Demons and the Bombers are strong favourites to take out their respective clashes on Saturday. 

While these favourites are expected to win, the ladder-leading Tigers will face a tougher underdog in the form of a desperate GWS.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.15 (-40.5) / Bulldogs $5.50 (+40.5)

The Demons were almost back to their best last week, putting their loyal supporters' minds at ease after giving them a scare with three losses in-a-row. They will look to make light work of the Dogs and sure up a top eight spot. 

While Melbourne won by 54 points against the Dockers last week, it really should have been by a century.

Inaccurate kicking cost them from piling on more points, mitigating the sense of embarrassment for Freo fans.

Like Freo, the Bulldogs were blown away last week, succumbing to a Hawthorn third-quarter goal blitz.

The Dogs looked good up until that point. However, you get the sense that their recent form turnaround ended with that demoralising defeat, and another big loss is expected here.

Jack Macrae (Bulldogs)

None

  Mostly sunny, which won't hurt the Demons' chances of kicking plenty of goals.

 AFL Stats in Focus

These stats are telling as they reveal that despite Melbourne kicking significantly poorer, and the Dogs kicking markedly better than their 2018 averages in Round 16, this wasn't reflected in the results.

Melbourne won by 54, while the Dogs lost by 63. If these teams kick anywhere near their averages, the Demons will win this clash in a canter.

Key AFL Stat

• The Bulldogs have lost 10 consecutive games as away underdogs.

  AFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -40.5 point line @ $1.92.

Reasoning: The Demons have been superb this year, especially in winning the games they should be winning. This will be no exception.  

Missed our preview of the earlier games? Read it here

Gold Coast v Essendon

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $4.20 (+29.5) / Essendon $1.23 (+29.5)

In the mad scramble to make the eight, the Bombers will consider themselves unlucky in not emerging from last week's game against the Pies with four points.

If they can put that disappointment behind them, an easy victory will be on offer here against the dismal Suns.

The Gold Coast side are in the midst of one of their worst runs ever, losing their last ten games. They look substandard in almost every aspect of their game, with first year coach Stuart Dew facing a monumental task to steady the ship.  

With Essendon winning their last three away games, not even home ground advantage can be thought of as a possible saving grace for the Suns. Another lopsided scoreline is the most likely outcome.

Orazio Fantasia (Essendon, likely)

Jake Stringer (Essendon)

   A sunny day and night- dry conditions for expansive, high-scoring footy.

 AFL Stats in Focus

Ranking last in four key areas of AFL footy, it's no surprise the Suns have lost 10 on the trot. With no signs of improvement, it will become 11 on Saturday.

Key AFL Stat

• The Suns have covered the line in only 29% of their night games at Metricon Stadium from 2015.

  AFL Betting Tip: Essendon to cover the -29.5 point line @ $1.92.

Reasoning: You just can't tip a team that's lost 10 in a row and showing very few signs of improvement.