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  • 10:56:15 AEST
  • Wednesday, 17 October 2018
GWS Toby Greene

AFL Betting Tips Round 17: Saturday night footy

Tagged: AFL

Giants' season on the line against high flying Tigers

Both the Demons and the Bombers are strong favourites to take out their respective clashes on Saturday. 

While these favourites are expected to win, the ladder-leading Tigers will face a tougher underdog in the form of a desperate GWS.

 

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.15 (-40.5) / Bulldogs $5.50 (+40.5)

The Demons were almost back to their best last week, putting their loyal supporters' minds at ease after giving them a scare with three losses in-a-row. They will look to make light work of the Dogs and sure up a top eight spot. 

While Melbourne won by 54 points against the Dockers last week, it really should have been by a century.

Inaccurate kicking cost them from piling on more points, mitigating the sense of embarrassment for Freo fans.

Like Freo, the Bulldogs were blown away last week, succumbing to a Hawthorn third-quarter goal blitz.

The Dogs looked good up until that point. However, you get the sense that their recent form turnaround ended with that demoralising defeat, and another big loss is expected here.

AFL Player In Jack Macrae (Bulldogs)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather Mostly sunny, which won't hurt the Demons' chances of kicking plenty of goals.

 

AFL Player Stats AFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

These stats are telling as they reveal that despite Melbourne kicking significantly poorer, and the Dogs kicking markedly better than their 2018 averages in Round 16, this wasn't reflected in the results.

Melbourne won by 54, while the Dogs lost by 63. If these teams kick anywhere near their averages, the Demons will win this clash in a canter.

 

Key AFL Stat

  • The Bulldogs have lost 10 consecutive games as away underdogs.

 

AFL Betting Tip  AFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to cover the -40.5 point line @ $1.92.

Reasoning: The Demons have been superb this year, especially in winning the games they should be winning. This will be no exception.  

 

Missed our preview of the earlier games? Read it here

 

Gold Coast v Essendon

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $4.20 (+29.5) / Essendon $1.23 (+29.5)

In the mad scramble to make the eight, the Bombers will consider themselves unlucky in not emerging from last week's game against the Pies with four points.

If they can put that disappointment behind them, an easy victory will be on offer here against the dismal Suns.

The Gold Coast side are in the midst of one of their worst runs ever, losing their last ten games. They look substandard in almost every aspect of their game, with first year coach Stuart Dew facing a monumental task to steady the ship.  

With Essendon winning their last three away games, not even home ground advantage can be thought of as a possible saving grace for the Suns. Another lopsided scoreline is the most likely outcome.

AFL Player In Orazio Fantasia (Essendon, likely)

 

AFL Player Out Jake Stringer (Essendon)

 

 AFL Weather  A sunny day and night- dry conditions for expansive, high-scoring footy.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in Focus

 

Ranking last in four key areas of AFL footy, it's no surprise the Suns have lost 10 on the trot. With no signs of improvement, it will become 11 on Saturday.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Suns have covered the line in only 29% of their night games at Metricon Stadium from 2015.

 

AFL Betting Tip  AFL Betting Tip: Essendon to cover the -29.5 point line @ $1.92.

Reasoning: You just can't tip a team that's lost 10 in a row and showing very few signs of improvement.

 

GWS v Richmond

AFL Odds: GWS $2.60 (+13.5) / Richmond $1.50 (-13.5)

After a narrow loss to the Eagles in Perth last week, the Giants can't afford to lose too many more games if they want to make finals footy. A defeat here would just about make the challenge to climb back into the top eight insurmountable.

While the expected returns of Toby Greene and Brett Deledio will be a massive shot in the arm for the Western Sydney club, they will need to put in their best showing of the year to knock off the table-topping Tigers.

Richmond continue to shorten as premiership favourites each week. Another impressive win last week, this time against the Crows, has many in the AFL media penciling in the Tigers as back-to-back premiers. 

While they have been superb in recent weeks, they won't be able to maintain this super-high level forever. A slight slip-up could open the door for GWS, but only if they are up to the challenge. 

AFL Player In Toby Greene (GWS, likely), Brett Deledio (GWS, likely) Nick Vlaustin (Richmond)

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather All clear, so expect a clean, high quality game.

AFL Stats AFL Stats in Focus

 

AFL Stats

This table is remarkable, as despite having better numbers than the Tigers in every department, GWS are nine spots below on the ladder.

This is because so much of Richmond's success is about things that can't be quantified, particularly pressure on the ball that forces opposition teams to have poor games.

Playing at home, the Giants are much better equipped to deal with Richmond's pressure, and could come out on top.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: GWS to cover the +13.5 point line @ $1.92.

Reasoning: The Giants are more desperate of the two, and ready for a big performance at home. Wait until the teams are finalised though, with Greene's presence or absence a big factor. 

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