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  • 10:58:30 AEST
  • Wednesday, 17 October 2018
Wests Tigers Robbie Farah

NRL Betting Tips Round 19 Preview: Super Saturday

Tagged: NRL

Farah set to Cook up a storm against the Bunnies

Knights Titans

NRL Odds: Newcastle Knights $1.95 (+1.5) / Gold Coast Titans $1.86 (-1.5)

Mitchell Pearce was impressive in his return from injury last weekend. He was a class above his peers and will need to be at his best again this week if the Knights are to defeat the Titans. 

In a boost for the Novocastrians, Lachlan Fitzgibbon returns from injury and Pearce is the man to see him return to his try-scoring ways.

Don't be surprised to see Pearce throw him plenty of short balls to test the Titans soft goal-line defence. 

Now out of top-eight contention, the Gold Coast will be playing for pride when they head to Newcastle.

The Titans have won only three of their nine away games this season and will be up against it with a large, vocal home-crowd expected for this Saturday afternoon fixture.  

Watch out Titans. The Knights have won at 62% with Mitchell Pearce in the line-up.

Pearce's stats were impressive in his return with 1 try, 1 try-assist, 2 tackle-breaks and 1 forced drop-out.

A repeat of that performance will go a long way to sealing a Knights win on Saturday. 

NRL Player In L Fitzgibbon (Knights), K Hipgrave (Titans), J Arrow (Titans)

NRL Player Out S Mata'utia (Knights) L Latu (Titans), J Whitebread (Titans)

NRL Weather Fine and 17 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Knights 17.6 / Titans 18.1
  • Average points conceded: Knights 26.1 / Titans 24.8
  • The Titans have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Knights  

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • 6 of the Knights' 7 wins have been by a margin of 1-12: Knights 1-12 @ $3.30 
  • Phillip Sami (3) leads both teams in first try scorers this season: Phillip Sami first try scorer @ $12
  • Clashes at McDonald Jones Stadium have averaged 42.1 total match points: 'Under' total match points line of 46.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Knights to win by a margin of 1-12 @ $3.30

Reasoning: There will be a big, loud home-crowd in attendance to cheer the Knights home on Saturday afternoon.

Mitchell Pearce impressed last week and will be much better for the run. The return of the Knights' try scoring back-rower Lachlan Fitzgibbon is a huge plus.

The Titans don't travel well and don't have a lot to play for, so expect the Knights to be too strong. 

 

Missed our NRL Premiership Betting Tips? Read it here

 

Tigers Rabbitohs

NRL Odds: Wests Tigers $3.40 (+9.5) / South Sydney Rabbitohs $1.33 (-9.5)

The ladder-leading Rabbitohs are looking for their 10th consecutive win against a new-look Tigers.

Granted, nine wins on-the-trot is impressive, but it's important to note Souths' last four wins came against teams outside of the top-eight.

Only three of their nine wins have come against top-eight teams, the Dragons, Warriors and Sharks. 

Wests turned back the clock last week with Robbie Farah and Benji Marshall combining brilliantly with their fellow playmakers, Luke Brooks and Moses Mbye.

The Tigers come into this game with their finals hopes still intact and look for Farah to attempt to prove a point against his former club. 

NRL Player In A Twal (Tigers), J Clark (Rabbitohs)

NRL Player Out C Lawrence (Tigers), M Nicholls (Rabbitohs)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 14 degrees.

 

NRL Statistics in Focus - Dummy Half comparison 

Robbie Farah has spent much of the season in the Rabbitohs reserve grade team, with Damien Cook getting the starting role over the veteran.

Both are 80 minute players and Cook has proved his worth at both club and Origin level this year, however Farah has offered just as much in the limited time he has spent on the field this season.  

In the games he has played, Farah has had the edge on Cook in try assists, line-break involvements, kicks and assists.

Cook's strength is in his running game, making darting runs from dummy half which ensures the Bunnies forward pack are often on the front foot. Cook has Farah covered in average runs per game however.

Ivan Cleary will be warning all of his players to watch Cook from dummy half and Farah especially will be determined to stop Cook from making any significant in-roads. 

NRL Stats

 

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored per game: Tigers 15.4 / Rabbitohs 25.0
  • Average points conceded per game: Tigers 18.3 / Rabbitohs 16.8
  • The Rabbits have won 9 consecutive games 

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • The Tigers have covered the line in their last 6 of 7 home games against the Bunnies: Tigers to cover the line +9.5 @ $1.90 
  • Cody Walker (3) leads both teams in first try scorers this season: Cody Walker first try scorer @ $19
  • Clashes at ANZ Stadium have averaged 34.8 total match points: 'Under' total match points line of 41.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting Tip NRL Betting Tip: Tigers to cover the line of +9.5 @ $1.90 NRL Betting Tip

Reasoning: South Sydney have won nine in-a-row, however they have had met relatively soft opposition in all of those wins.

The new look Tigers have a sniff of finals footy and will be up for this clash. Expect this game to go down to the wire. 

 

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Cowboys Dragons

NRL Odds: North Queensland Cowboys $2.50 (+4.5) / St George Illawarra Dragons $1.55 (-4.5)

The Cowboys were blown away in the last 20 minutes of their defeat to the Raiders in Canberra last week.

The return to Townsville's 1300 Smiles Stadium in front of home fans will ensure an 80-minute performance this week. 

How impressive that performance is will be anyone's guess. 

Like last year, the Dragons are suffering a mid-season capitulation. They have been hit hard by fatigue from a deep representative roster, but their biggest issue appears to be their inability to adapt mid-season. 

The game plan that was working for them early in the season is no longer effective.

Opposition clubs have found ways to counter their plans and the Dragons' best bet may be to play some adlib footy, in an attempt to freshen-up in their run to the finals. 

This is a danger game for St George and they will need to regroup if they want keep their top-four hopes alive. 

NRL Player In J O'Neill (Cowboys), F Molo (Cowboys)

NRL Player Out A Winterstein (Cowboys) S Wright (Cowboys)

NRL Weather Mostly sunny and 20 degrees.

NRL Stats Key NRL stats

  • Average points scored: Cowboys 16.2 / Dragons 24.5
  • Average points conceded: Cowboys 21.4 / Dragons 18.0
  • The Dragons have conceded an average of 22.6 in their last 8 games

NRL Betting TipKey NRL Betting Stats

  • The Cowboys have covered the line in 7 of their last 8 clashes with the Dragons: Cowboys +4.5 @ $1.90 
  • Euan Aitken (3) leads both teams in first-try scorers this season: Euan Aitken to be first try scorer @ $13
  • Clashes at 1300 Smiles Stadium have averaged 34.4 total match points: 'Under'  total match points line 41.5 points @ $1.90

NRL Betting TipNRL Betting Tip: No Bet

Reasoning: Neither team have shown enough in recent weeks to be a betting proposition. 

                                                                             NRL Betting Tip = High Confidence

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