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  • Thursday, 21 March 2019
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Collingwood Jordan DeGoey

AFL Betting Tips Round 16 Preview: Sunday's Games

Tagged: AFL

Three games that have huge bearing on the eight

All three Sunday games involve a team embroiled in the tight battle to make the top eight.

While the Kangaroos should prevail comfortably against the Suns, the other two fixtures are anyone's to win.

Essendon need to triumph over rivals Collingwood to keep their slim finals chances alive at the MCG.

Meanwhile in Perth, the Eagles will need to overcome the midfield talent of GWS in order to snap a 3-game losing streak.

 

Missed our preview of the Saturday games? Read it here

 

North Melbourne v Gold Coast

AFL Odds: Kangaroos $1.10 (-48.5) / Suns $7 (+48.5)

With a third of the season to play, the race for the top 8 is on like Donkey Kong.

North Melbourne are one of the four teams sitting on 32 points on the cusp of the top eight, with only a poor percentage to blame for their top 8-absence. 

This game against the struggling Suns is not only a must win, but a fantastic opportunity to win by a sizeable margin and boost their finals chances in the process.

Despite going down to the Bombers last week, the Kangaroos should be far too good for Gold Coast.

If the Kangas get the hop on the Suns early on, they could definitely run away with the game and win by upwards of 50 points.

The Suns meanwhile don't score enough points to be realistic chances here. While they can thank their early season form for their third-from last position on the ladder, they are playing like a team that deserves the wooden spoon.

 

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather Rain is forecast so the roof will probably  be closed. Scoring will be easier which could help the Suns, though not enough to change the result.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats


Gold Coast's goal-scoring stats makes for depressing reading for fans of the battling club. There's no way you could tip them based on these alone.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Suns have only covered the line in 35% of their games when playing interstate after a loss since 2015.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: North Melbourne to cover the -48.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: The Suns can't kick enough goals to keep up with the Kangas here. It's a big line, but the Roos need percentage.

 

Essendon v Collingwood

AFL Odds: Bombers $2.30 (+8.5) / Magpies $1.62 (-8.5)

The game of the round sees rivals Essendon and Collingwood do battle in front of a huge MCG crowd.

While the Magpies have been superb all year, the Bombers have been disappointing. This has changed however in the last month, where Essendon have turned their season around and are playing at the high level that many expected of them in the pre-season.

If any bolter is to make the eight, it'll be the Bombers who are desperate to avoid the cliche of too little, too late.

A win against the second-placed Pies will only galvanise their finals push, which will be boosted by the return of star forward Joe Daniher in coming weeks.

Collingwood meanwhile don't need to concern themselves too much with the scramble to make the eight. Instead, they will be gunning for the minor premiership, which would send their large supporter base into raptures.

While their standard has dipped somewhat in the last few weeks, they have still won six on the trot. However, you get the sense that a loss is just around the corner.

 

AFL Player In Travis Varcoe (Collingwood, likely)

 

AFL Player Out Lynden Dunn (Collingwood)

 

 AFL Weather Light showers forecast, which shouldn't impact the game too much.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

This table demonstrates part of why Essendon have finally started hitting the winner's board in recent times.

Their disposal efficiency has been consistently and significantly higher than their 2018 average.

If this continues against the Pies, whose efficiency by hand and foot is showing signs of dropping off, expect Essendon to get the four points.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Bombers have won 4 of their last 6 matches played in July.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: Essendon to win head-to-head @ $2.30

Reasoning: The Bombers look to be back to their best and that should be enough to get them home in a close one.

 

West Coast v GWS

AFL Odds: Eagles $1.62 (-6.5) / Giants $2.35 (+6.5)

Round 16 concludes with another cracker game, as the 3rd-placed Eagles play host to the 6th-placed Giants.

West Coast have lost three games in-a-row and are desperate to snap that streak. If they want to secure the coveted 'double-chance' that comes with finishing in the top four, they will need to turn their form around.

Much of this slump is owing to the absence of big forwards Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy through injury.

Their injury-riddled forward line is also expected to deal with the continued omission of the experienced Mark Lecras.

But the Eagles have no right to complain of injuries when facing the Giants, who have had the worst luck of any team in the comp.

Even with so many of their stars out, the Giants continued their resurgence last week with a solid win over Hawthorn.

While it's always a challenge to win against the Eagles in Perth, the Giants are too strong in the midfield to go down here.

 

AFL Player In None

 

AFL Player Out None

 

 AFL Weather Fine conditions for footy. The players will decide this one.

 

AFL Stats AFL Stats in focus

AFL Stats

As the Eagles won't get the advantage from their forward line that they're used to, the game will come down to the midfield. The Giants' midfield numbers suggest they'll get the job done here, coming up trumps in each of the key statistical metrics.

Key AFL Stat

  • GWS have won 3 of their last 4 games against West Coast.

 

AFL Betting Tip AFL Betting Tip: GWS to win head-to-head @ $2.35

Reasoning: GWS' recent form and mifield superiority will have them winning here.

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