Analyst: Alex Christodoulou
Apr 30, 2019 03:14 PM
Cats firm into favouritism, Dees drop away
In our latest wrap of the changes to the AFL futures odds, we'll cover not just the premiership odds, but the wooden spoon and Brownlow medal too.
After 6 rounds of action, there's been plenty of movement in all three AFL odds markets.
The competition has certainly thrown up plenty of surprises.
AFL Premiership Odds
AFL Odds $4
The Cats have streaked into favouritism, off the back of their superb start to the season.
Besides a loss to fellow flag contenders GWS, the Cats have been flawless, winning five games by healthy margins to see them go to the top of the table.
However, more than the wins themselves, it has been the opposition that they've beat that has made this start to the season so impressive.
The Cats can count last year's grand finalists West Coast and Collingwood among their scalps.
And as the saying goes, to be the best you have to beat the best.
AFL Odds $4.50
The Pies are the one team that have stayed pretty steady in the odds markets since the start of the season.
They're currently one of the seven sides that have won 4 of their opening 6 fixtures.
However, the convincing manner of these victories gives them a great percentage that sees them sitting near the top of this log jam in 3rd place.
With an embarrassment of riches in the midfield, and a forward line that only continues to improve, the Pies look like they will go far in 2019.
AFL Odds $7
Despite losing the quality of Dylan Shiel and Tom Scully in the offseason, the Giants still have stacks of quality.
They currently sit in 4th spot on the ladder with four wins, but it's what they did to the Cats that has them so short in the AFL premiership odds.
It's a near insurmountable task to go and win at the Cattery, but that's what GWS did, in a game where co-captain Callan Ward ruptured his ACL in the opening minutes.
Without Ward and fellow star Toby Greene, the Giants showed their resilience, and made a big statement.
With Greene now back from injury, look for these odds to shorten in the coming weeks as the Giants rack up more wins.
Wooden Spoon (least wins) Odds
Gold Coast Suns
AFL Odds $3.25
Despite their terrific start to the campaign, the Suns remain the wooden spoon favourites.
However, after winning 3 of their opening 6, punters will get much better odds for this bet than they did at the start of the campaign.
Most experts didn't think the Suns would have two wins to rub together in 2019, but with three already, this odds drift is no surprise.
However, with a horror run of fixtures coming up, that sees Gold Coast face the Eagles, Power, Cats, and Giants, don't expect another Suns win for a while yet.
AFL Odds $3.75
Carlton will be desperate to avoid a second-straight spoon, but haven't started the 2019 campaign in great fashion.
They lost their opening four, but since then have turned things around with a big win over the Bulldogs, before going down narrowly to Hawthorn.
The performances from the past fortnight suggest the Blues will bag just enough wins to avoid another last-place finish.
And with an easier run of games than Gold Coast coming up, steer clear of this AFL bet.
AFL Odds: $13
While it's perhaps a little dramatic to include the Dees with all the wooden spoon contenders, it's where they deserve to be at the moment.
Indeed, the Demons sit last on the ladder, with just 1 win and a horror percentage.
This is a remarkable drop away for a team that made the prelims in 2018.
Punters who can remember the back end of 2018 will know that Melbourne have all the quality to quickly put together a string of wins.
But they'll need to turn things around quickly if they want to make the eight.
Brownlow Medal Odds
AFL Odds $4
It's a little strange that a Carlton player is the favourite to win the Brownlow, considering that the Blues are one of the wooden spoon favourites.
However, anyone who's watched a Carlton game will know why.
Cripps is an elite midfielder, who really inspires his team from the middle of the park.
He's way out in front of the league with 118 contested possessions, demonstrating just what a tough ball-magnet he is.
But unless the Blues start winning a few more games, it's hard to see Cripps claiming the medal.
AFL Odds $4.25
Geelong's superstar midfielder has had another terrific start to the campaign, and a big reason why the Cats sit at the top of the pile.
"Danger" polls well in the Brownlow votes year after year, and took out the prize in 2016.
While he doesn't accumulate the same numbers as some of the league's other mids, he arguably has the greatest impact.
Dangerfield is currently averaging 8.7 score involvements per game, with only two forwards above him in the league rankings.
With the Cats sure to get plenty of votes, it's no surprise Dangerfield is so short in the AFL odds.
AFL Odds $5
Easily the best acquisition of the 2018 trade-period has been Brisbane's Lachie Neale, who has started out great guns at his new club.
The Lions have been the surprise packets of the season, winning 4 of their opening 6.
This included three straight to get their campaign up and running, in a trio of games where many expect Neale to take a full nine points.
He has been instrumental to Brisbane's success, and currently leads the league with 207 disposals.
Last year it was the top disposal-getter Tom Mitchell who won the Brownlow.
There's no reason why it won't happen again.